Experts: «All empires collapse at some point. To think it will be different for Putin – and for Russia – is just another lack of imagination.”
At a time when the Russian army on Ukrainian soil appears capable of regaining positions in the Soledar and Bakhmut sectors of Donbass, it may seem like wishful thinking to talk about a possible dissolution of the Russian Federation and one’s own confusing desires with reality. Nevertheless, the topic comes up again. We wrote about it in the November 23 review. Guido Santevecchi pointed out that according to some Chinese sources to the Financial Times, “Beijing is convinced that ‘Putin is crazy’ and that his Russia will emerge from the Ukrainian quagmire reduced to ‘a subsidiary power'”. Federico Fubini spoke about the thousands of Russian soldiers who were sent to die in Ukraine, mainly from the regions furthest from Moscow, adding that “the minorities are now starting to react”. And Danilo Taino recalled that the “power struggles and social protests in Russia” were one of the seven most likely crises of 2023, according to the 540 experts contacted by the Center for Preventive Action.
Casey Michel was even more explicit in an article in the Financial Times and Janusz Bugajski in Politico Europe. Both used the word “decay”. And both draw a parallel with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Few, Michel recalls, predicted the collapse of the USSR, even if there were cracks in the edifice: the failed war in Afghanistan, economic stagnation, the difficulties in controlling the vast territory. “Now, with the Kremlin once again consuming labor and resources in a war abroad and once again collapsing under a frozen economy, Western politicians risk being caught by surprise a second time. Just as a misconception has blinded the West to the impending end of the Soviet Union, so the same mistake – and the inability or unwillingness to understand Russia as a remaining colonial empire – blinds politicians to the possibility of a dissolution of the Russian Federation”.
Michel does not want to argue that this dissolution is imminent, but he is convinced that it can no longer be excluded from the horizon of possibilities: «None of this means that the territorial dissolution of the Russian state is inevitable or even imminent on the horizon. But with the death toll still mounting and President Vladimir Putin’s messianic revanchism with no end in sight, the eventual dissolution of the Russian Federation can no longer be ignored. Western policymakers need to prepare for that possibility sooner rather than later.” Also because, as we have argued repeatedly throughout this paper, a possible collapse would have unpredictable and potentially destabilizing effects on a global scale.
However, Michel invites us to reflect on the fact that the Russian Federation is also a construct of colonial origin and “the invasion of Ukraine has effectively detonated the myth of Putin’s united Russia, also because the Kremlin has sought conscription of certain nationalities, like Sakhas, Tatars and Chechens.” As a result, critical voices are reportedly growing on the country’s periphery, speaking of the Kremlin’s “imperialism and colonialism and racial and ethnic discrimination.” Michel concluded: “Putin’s war in Ukraine is risking to turn Russia into a failed state with uncontrolled borders, offering a chance for nationalities colonized by Russia and caught in the conflict to regain sovereignty and freedom.
Not surprisingly, Bugajski, a Jamestown Foundation grantee and author of a recently published book called Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture, broadly agrees. And he says it right in the first lines of his speech: “We are currently witnessing an ongoing revolution in global security for which Western politicians are obviously unprepared: the impending collapse of the Russian Federation”. Bugajski is so convinced that he considers the proposals for a way out of the Ukraine conflict “not humiliating” for Moscow and suitable for guaranteeing the integrity of the country to be unrealistic.
Too late, in his opinion: «Russia is a failed state. It has failed to transform itself into a nation-state, a civil state, or even a stable imperial state. It is a federation in name only, as the central government pursues a policy of ethnic and linguistic homogenization and denies power to the country’s 83 republics and regions. However, hypercentralization has exposed the country’s numerous weaknesses, including a shrinking economy squeezed by international sanctions; the military defeats in Ukraine reveal the incompetence and corruption of the ruling elite and the uneasiness in many regions of shrinking budgets».
Bugajski does not appear to be concerned about the uncertainties that a possible dissolution of the Russian Federation and the replacement of many border republics would entail. And rather invites you not to underestimate its advantages. “If Moscow turns inward, its capacity for outward aggression will decrease. And as a rump state, facing intense international sanctions and bereft of its resource base in Siberia, it will have severely limited opportunities to attack its neighbors. From the Arctic to the Black Sea, NATO’s Eastern Front is becoming safer; while Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova will retake their occupied territories and demand European Union and NATO integration without fear of a Russian response. Central Asian countries will also feel increasingly free to turn to the West for energy, security and economic ties. China will be in a weaker position to expand its influence as it will no longer be able to work with Moscow, and new pro-Western states could emerge from the Russian Federation and strengthen stability in several regions of Europe and Eurasia.
It seems to us that wishful thinking is not absent from Bugajski’s vision. However, he denies the allegation. True wishful thinking, he says, like many in the West, is hoping “that beneficial relations can be established with a post-Putin Kremlin, or that liberals can democratize the empire.” His conclusion is: “The West made a grave error in believing that the collapse of Soviet communism meant the end of Russian imperialism. And since imperial states inevitably collapse when they cross the line, and as centrifugal pressures are fueled by economic hardship, regional ills and national awakening, it must now avoid repeating that mistake, this time by falsely assuming that the current empire is permanent is. ».
Conclusion practically identical to that of Michel: “All empires collapse at some point. To think it will be different for Putin – and for Russia – is just another lack of imagination.” Whether you think it’s a blessing or a curse, perhaps the hypothesis is worth taking seriously.
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January 13, 2023 (change January 13, 2023 | 10:43 am)
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