1 of 3 Last week, Russian forces managed to advance towards the town of Avdiivka and take control of the main supply road. Photo: Getty Images via BBC Last week, Russian forces managed to advance towards the town of Avdiivka and take control of the main supply route. — Photo: Getty Images via BBC
When he was appointed to the post this month, the new head of Ukraine's armed forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said he would “rather withdraw than sacrifice lives,” and that is exactly what he did in this city in the country's east.
Although the Russians suffered enormous losses, after four months of relentless attacks, Ukrainian troops were outnumbered, outgunned and out of ammunition.
This was Moscow's biggest victory since Ukraine's failed counteroffensive last year.
Avdiivka was briefly occupied by Russia in 2014 before it was recaptured by Ukraine.
For Russians, what does the fall of Avdiivka mean for the conflict as a whole?
Now that the protracted conflict is becoming a war of attrition, The difference between the size of the Ukraine and from Russia has an impact on the war.
Russia's population of 144 million is more than four times larger than Ukraine's.
2 of 3 Avdiivka was heavily damaged after Russian attacks. This photo shows the city in November. — Photo: Portal via BBC Avdiivka was heavily damaged after Russian attacks. This photo shows the city in November. — Photo: Portal via BBC
Although Moscow loses thousands of soldiers in the process, it relies on its size and supplies its troops almost immediately.
The Ukrainian armed forces also suffered losses, although not to the same extent.
But as with other Ukrainian frontline settlements, Russia took control of a city that was almost completely destroyed.
The 3rd Ukrainian Assault Brigade stationed there said it was being attacked by infantry from all directions.
Russia has concentrated its besttrained soldiers in the region and is estimated to be dropping up to 60 bombs a day on Ukrainian positions.
The last time the Russians took a Ukrainian city, Bakhmut, General Syrskyi was criticized. He was accused of seeking a symbolic victory at the expense of unnecessary losses.
This experience appears to have led to a change in attitude.
Russia takes control of a strategically important city after troops leave Ukraine
This Russian advance did not happen overnight. Since last October, Moscow has launched wave after wave of attacks against Avdiivka.
From their high positions and reinforced defenses, the Ukrainians managed to hold off the Russians with targeted attacks, leaving the Donbass landscape littered with Russian corpses and destroyed armored vehicles.
It now appears that Russian troops have penetrated defenses that had been strengthened in the decade since Moscow's campaign began in the region.
To Kiev's disappointment, Ukraine failed to break through Russian lines elsewhere, which had been established within months.
“Russia cannot achieve strategic goals, only tactical goals,” said Major Rodion Kudryashov, Ukrainian deputy commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade.
He claims his troops are outnumbered seven to one. In a telephone interview he told me: “It’s like fighting two armies”.
He is confident that the Russians will not advance further toward cities like Pokrovsk and Kostantinovka, but that is by no means guaranteed.
However, this relieves pressure on the city of Donetsk, 15 kilometers further east, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014.
Ukraine has been forced to withdraw in this way on other occasions, notably in the summer of 2022.
Large, wellequipped Russian units surrounded cities such as Lisichansk and Severodonetsk. The Ukrainians could do little to contain them.
3 of 3 President Volodymyr Zelensky attributed the fall of the city of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine to a lack of longrange weapons. Photo: Portal via BBC President Volodymyr Zelensky attributed the fall of the city of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine to a lack of longrange weapons. — Photo: Portal via BBC
However, the arrival of Western weapons and a change in tactics changed events in the conflict later that same year, as Ukrainian troops liberated areas in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions.
But now it's a different war.
Global politics has a greater impact on the battlefield.
A temporary western aid contributed directly to this likely Ukrainian withdrawal at Avdiivka.
The United States is the country that supplies most of the weapons to Ukraine. But a $95 billion aid package for Ukraine has stalled in Washington, and other allies are failing to fill the gap left by the United States.
This means Ukrainians have to ration their ammunition and deal with low morale.
And Avdiivka may not be the only retreat Kiev is considering.
Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants to penetrate the whole thing Ukraine and it's still possible he can take it.
This prospect could restore Western unity visàvis Russia. Or, on the contrary, there is growing skepticism that Ukraine will never be able to win this war, despite the exceptional defenses it has deployed in Avdiivka and elsewhere.