Brussels The devil always appears in a different way: something that literature and art play with can also be observed in international politics. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the devil is currently tall and bulky with dark hair. His name: Milorad Dodik.
Dodik is the head of the largest Bosnian Serb party, SNSD, and a member of the three-headed state presidency, made up of a Bosnian, a Croatian and a Bosnian Serb. And he is friends with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who supports him in making history in Bosnia and Herzegovina as it is now.
In return, Dodik considers the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine to be justified and demands that the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina position itself as a “neutral” in the Ukraine war. In fact, Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of the few European countries that has not joined EU sanctions against Russia. Ministers of Bosnian Serb origin in Sarajevo blocked the relevant decision.
The state of Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently made up of two named entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska, each of which represents about 49 percent of the national territory in terms of area. There is also the Brcko Special Administrative Region, which represents about two percent of the country and cuts through the territory of the Republic of Srpska.
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The Republic of Srpska, which literally means Republic of Serbia and of which Dodik was president for a long time, is predominantly populated by Serbs at 81.5%. According to the last census taken in 2013, the population of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina is made up of 70.4 percent of Bosniaks – Bosnian Muslims – and 22.4 percent of Catholic Croats. Orthodox Serbs represent only 2.5% of the local population.
The Brcko special administrative zone has a mixed population, which is why it was not added to the Srpska Republic after the Bosnian war: in 2013, 42 percent Bosnians, 35 percent Serbs and 21 percent Croatians lived there.
The purpose of your own army
In the Republic of Srpska, there have long been efforts to separate, which have become more concrete in recent months. In October 2021, parliament decided to create its own drug agency, although one already exists at the state level in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Observers saw this as a test by the entity government in Banja Luka of how far it can go to create structures for an independent state.
The big blow came shortly afterwards: in December, laws were passed in Banja Luka that resulted in the Republic of Srpska withdrawing from the state structures of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In concrete terms, the Parliament decided to withdraw powers from the central government in the areas of taxation, the judiciary and security and defence.
The main initiator behind this: Dodik. This is also intended to split the country’s armed forces and build a separate army for the Republic of Srpska. A traumatic project for Bosnians in the country: the genocide of 8,000 Bosnians in Srebrenica – which Dodik denies, by the way – was carried out by the then army of Republika Srpska, among others.
So far, Western diplomacy is still trying to get the Banja Luka government to withdraw the laws. EU Neighborhood Policy Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi has offered Dodik a €600 million reward – which has not been convincing so far.
Not much time left: the laws are due to take effect in May. There are fears in diplomatic circles that Dodik will also declare independence for the Republic of Srpska. Russia and Serbia would presumably recognize them.
She may then want to join the Serbian entity – which Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, also a friend of Putin, naturally supports. The attempt to unite this part of the country with Serbia to form Greater Serbia was one of the reasons for the Bosnian War and the Bosnian genocide. The scenario would also further exacerbate the security situation in Kosovo, which Serbia claims as its own.
History threatens to repeat itself in the Balkans, driven by powerful politicians at the top of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia. And his powerful friend Putin, who can easily exploit these fragile states for his geostrategic interests.
Bosnia and Herzegovina hopes to join NATO
If fears of a detachment from the Bosnian Serb region do not materialize, the potential for conflict over the role of the Bosnian-Herzegovino army will remain. Bosnia and Herzegovina aspires to long-term NATO membership and is currently a partner country. After the outbreak of the Ukrainian War, the Sarajevo Defense Alliance pledged even greater support. The Republic of Srpska, on the other hand, rejects NATO membership – as does Serbia, which prefers to cooperate militarily with Russia.
The Bosnian Serb region is also dependent on cooperation with Russia. As early as 2017, the Russians sent military units and intelligence personnel there and trained Bosnian Serbs as “special police”. Moscow wants to prevent Bosnia and Herzegovina from joining NATO with all its might.
This was also demonstrated by a statement by the Russian diplomat in Sarajevo, Igor Kalabukhov. He threatened on Bosnian state television that if Bosnia and Herzegovina decides to become a member of NATO, the country could experience something similar to Ukraine.
For Bundestag SPD member Addis Ahmetovic, this is a clear alarm bell. “We have learned that we literally have to take the statements made by the Putin regime seriously,” the foreign policy expert said recently at an event organized by the Heinrich Böll Foundation. He told Handelsblatt: “This is a threat that violates international law and yet another attempt to destabilize the Western Balkans, the Mediterranean region and therefore Europe.”
Green MEP Romeo Franz also warns: “Putin’s threats must be taken seriously. After the war of aggression against Ukraine, it became clear that the Russian dictator was fighting for a new world order and would also like to impose it by force of arms. Putin has had his eye on the Western Balkans as a whole for a long time.”
Parade on the anniversary of the Republic of Srpska
In the Bosnian Serb area, there have long been separation efforts that have become more concrete in recent months.
(Photo: imago/Pixsell images)
The approaching danger has been recognized in Britain: London has already imposed sanctions on Dodik and Zeljka Cvijanovic, the President of the Republic of Srpska. Both can no longer enter the UK and any assets held there will be frozen. The two politicians probably don’t care much. Dodik said he “doesn’t care” about UK sanctions against him. The British were never kind to the Serbs.
US sanctions against Dodik have been in place for many years and were reinforced again in January due to the army’s plan. US citizens are prohibited from making financial transactions with Dodik.
The EU, on the other hand, has not yet succeeded in initiating sanctions against Dodik, although a corresponding legal framework has already been created to do so. Accordingly, people trying to attack the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina may be subject to entry bans and financial freezes, for example. However, individual countries have so far vetoed this from applying to Dodik.
One of them is Hungary, which likes to help Russia and Serbia. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told Serbian leader Dodik it also recently awarded grants of US$100 million. A clear support, because the Republic of Srpska is on the verge of insolvency.
Dragan Covic
The head of Bosnia’s largest Croatian party is fighting for an official Croatian part of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
(Photo: imago/Pixsell images)
Another country is Croatia. And that poses an even bigger problem, because Zagreb not only supports Dodik, but also the other devil that exists in Bosnia and Herzegovina. His figure this time: like Dodik, over 1.90 m tall, but with gray hair. His name is Dragan Covic, he is the leader of the biggest Bosnian Croatian party. Covic is fighting for an official Croatian part of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The EU is thus faced with a delicate situation: its own ranks are also helping to dismantle Bosnia and Herzegovina in its current form.
Note: In an earlier version of the article, “Bosnia and Herzegovina” was mentioned several times. We changed to “Bosnia and Herzegovina”.
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