In the Russians Winter is the biggest enemy for each army. And this has always been the case, as the failed invasions of Napoleon and Hitler clearly show. Without creating pro-Russian propaganda, we have allowed ourselves to place Ukraine in the historiographical category of the so-called “Russia”, as it has been called “Little Russia” for centuries. Nothing ideological, just pure academicism.
However, as the cold season approaches, which starts earlier in Ukraine than here, The armies rush to launch the final offensives and then freeze the situation in an advantageous position until spring. In late autumn, which has already brought mud and frost to Eastern Europe, there are serious clashes. However, both Moscow and Kiev have to deal with this Tiredness of the troops and public opinioneven if Russia can count on significantly more resources and men. Ukraine must make enormous efforts not to let up, also in view of the growing intolerance on the part of the Western Front’s fringe towards Kiev’s continued military support. Hence the president Zelensky he could be forced to make an epochal decision: to declare total mobilization.
Is Ukraine losing the war against Russia? We talked about it here.
War in Ukraine: Where we stand
Let’s start with the situation on the ground. Almost two years after the Russian invasion The front didn’t move much. Nothing new on the Eastern Front, Remarque would write if he lived in 2023. A maxim that reveals a terrible situation because it means that the sacrifice of tens of thousands of men has brought no progress in the war. We killed ourselves for a few kilometers of entangled territory an artillery and trench warfare and bombings of civilian targets.
However, Ukraine managed to regain the territories occupied by the Russians. After Kharkiv And IzyumA year ago, on November 11, 2022, Ukrainian troops invaded Kherson and regained control of the area west of the Dnieper. Since then, however, the dividing line between the two sides has become immovable, despite further serious attacks on both sides. It was a tragic example of that Bakhmut, reduced to a pile of rubble by months of fighting. Eager to boast of victory at home, Russia invested enormous human and military resources, first to capture the city and then to resist the heavy Ukrainian counteroffensive. The latter oriented itself for the advance after a clash with Moscow’s defensive shield (at the cost of enormous losses). Robotyne. The road leading into the city is now defined “The Way of Death” (like the Bolivian homonym). It completes the picture and closes the front line Avdiivka, another major Russian target, but one that revealed another stalemate in the war. However, if you want to read the situation from a different perspective, you could also say that Moscow now controls over 500 square kilometers more territory than it did at the beginning of the year.
Have rain, mud and cold the map of the Ukrainian war emergedwhich draws the front line in the southeast of the country along the four points (from northeast to southwest) of the Bakhmut-Avdiivka-Robotyne-Ukrainian bridgehead on the Dnieper. The destination of both is Crimea: The Ukrainians want to take it back, the Russians want to keep it. The Black Sea peninsula will be the real balance of power in the conflict.
Here we explained why Ukraine wants to end the war by March.
Is Ukraine preparing a general mobilization?
Given the ineffectiveness of the diplomatic and negotiating path to peace, Ukraine and Russia are betting everything on military results. However, while the second brought more men and more vehicles to the battlefield and has a Industrial power (with the exception of super partners like China and Iran) who can support the war effort until the bitter end, the invaded country has no choice but to knock on the door United States and the European Union for supplies, weapons, vehicles and training. Russia can afford to close itself in its strongholds (Donetsk, Lugansk, Crimea) and resist, without overdoing it in conquering other territories, but rather thinking about defending the territory it already controls. The strategy is: to let the Ukrainian wave crash against the Russian rocks, in a war that benefits the defenders.
After a year and a half of military aid, both the West and Ukrainian public opinion appear significantly more tired. The country’s media in particular seems to be pointing out the lack of alternatives to total mobilization with ever greater conviction. One of the members of the Third Assault Brigade of Azov Battalionone of the heroic symbols of the Ukrainian resistance, even reported this “It’s time to finally start sending 18-year-olds to the front”. The same representatives of the Ukrainian armed forces spoke at official meetings about the inadmissibility of protecting conscientious objectors and about the possibility of recruiting “all women” (41,000 female soldiers are currently mobilized, of which at least 5,000 are directly involved in the fighting). Is the Zelensky government really ready to call on all adult Ukrainians to fight against Russia and risk the social bomb?
What will happen now?
According to many analysts, if Ukraine wants to win this war on the field, it actually seems to have no other choice. However, individual Russian defense lines have so far been broken through with heavy losses There was no real breakthrough from Kiev. With an additional sword of Damocles, represented by Russian air superiority. According to Austrian Army Colonel and military expert Markus Reisner, Ukraine is not receiving enough resources from the West to counter air attacks that are increasingly targeting critical infrastructure and increasing pressure on the population. The Ukrainian troops are also losing their best soldiersi, while Russia easily manages to renew its lines (and forms a scary alliance). Not to mention that the new drones developed by Moscow, i.e Geranhave proven to be deadly and very frightening as they are harder to detect while i lancet They increased firepower. In fact, Kremlin documents suggest that defense spending will rise to around 30% of the state budget in 2024 an absurd sum: 10.8 trillion rubles, which is about $112 billion and 6% of GDP (+68% compared to 2023).
So Ukraine has two ways to turn the tide of war: Equip yourself with better weapons and in large quantities or mobilize more troops. Again and again we return to total mobilization, which increasingly appears to be a natural consequence of the largely extreme measures taken by Kiev’s defense. In recent months, the General Staff has actually… Mobilization was expanded to previously excluded categories of citizens How “partially disabled”. However, like Russia, Ukraine also has a serious problem corruption which the Zelensky government tried with all its might to resolve. Yet recruiters and military officials continued to accept bribes to turn a blind eye and remove names from Army files. We need a total change of direction. We’ll see if it arrives.