Russia – a country with centuries-old history and culture. Tourists used to roam the streets of Moscow – not anymore. Now the country is being ruled by war and sanctions are weakening the Russian economy. Putin’s Russia seems cut off from the outside world.
internationally isolated
According to political analyst and Eastern Europe expert Alexander Dubowy, for months now it has been possible to see how not only the West, but also the “global non-West” is opposing the war of aggression in Ukraine. Russia has no allies on the world stage, only “fans”. Because: “Allies share the risk with you, but fans don’t.”
At its summit in Bali in November, the G20 group of leading industrial and emerging countries issued a final joint declaration that scathingly criticized Russia’s war of aggression. In their statement, the states referred to a United Nations resolution calling on Russia to cease hostilities and immediately withdraw its troops from Ukraine.
G20 countries China and India, which have so far refrained from public criticism of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, did not block the joint final declaration.
Russian economy is shrinking
The EU, for its part, responded to the illegal attack on Ukraine with sanctions. The aim is to weaken “Russia’s economic base, block access to critical technologies and markets” and thus “significantly weaken Russia’s ability to wage war”. And they don’t seem to miss the mark.
But the war in Ukraine appears to be affecting the Russian economy in other ways as well. The Russian central bank recently announced that labor shortages are increasing in many sectors. The main reason for this is partial mobilization – since September it has led to hundreds of thousands of Russians being drafted into the army or leaving the country. They are no longer available for the job market. Scarcity is causing prices to rise as many companies fail to maintain their range of products and services as planned. The problems would severely limit economic activity and the ability to expand production.
What are the Russians thinking?
And what does the Russian population really think? Are Russians for or against the war in Ukraine ordered by Putin?
“Are you concerned about the current state of affairs in Ukraine?” the renowned government critical opinion polling institute “Levada-Zentrum” asked the Russians. The October results show that 58% of respondents are “very concerned” and 30% “very concerned”. “Do you support the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine?” it’s another question. 44% of respondents support the actions of the Russian armed forces “completely”, 29% “quite a lot”. A full 20% of Russians polled do not support the actions of the Russian army.
56% of respondents support Putin’s partial mobilization, 38% are against. Two-thirds fear that a general mobilization will be announced.
Surprisingly critical of Putin
A street survey conducted by US-funded radio station Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty also offers a glimpse into Russian minds.
Reporters asked Moscow: “Is Russia’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine doing any good for Ukrainians?” While some respondents echoed Russian propaganda and said the invasion was necessary to bring “liberation” and “a peaceful life” to Ukraine, others were surprisingly critical of Putin.
“There is no way to oppose Putin”
Some bystanders didn’t hesitate to label the Russian invasion a “war” – a dangerous undertaking in a country where it is illegal to call the operation in Ukraine a war.
The war in Ukraine brings “destruction and murder” and the development does not bring “nothing good”, say some Muscovites. After all, if someone bombed his homeland, he would not see anything positive in it, says a man. “But that’s what Putin wants. There’s no opposing Putin,” he says. A young man hesitates: “It’s dangerous to answer this question,” he says. It’s hard to be honest. “Smart people can read between the lines,” is his indirect but very clear answer.
Concern over anti-war sentiment
Even after partial mobilization was announced on September 21, protests broke out in several Russian cities on the same night. These were the first major protests in Russia since the start of the war. Photos and videos, which quickly spread on social media, showed the brutality with which security authorities acted against demonstrators. Civil rights portal OVD-Info reported more than 1,300 arrests in 38 cities.
In short, the Russian leadership is concerned about rising anti-war sentiment in their country, British intelligence experts estimate. In addition, there are growing disagreements over the type of Russian warfare in Ukraine – this must reach the leadership level of the armed forces.
Why is there so little resistance?
“Discourses critical of the regime and political resistance” are not very pronounced in Russia, says Wolfgang Mueller, deputy head of the Institute of Eastern European History at the University of Vienna, in an interview with the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW). “The State is perceived as an oppressor, while the individual is seen as weak and hardly supported in his legal position”.
For a possible rethinking of the population, it remains to be seen whether and to what extent “military mobilization will become a mass phenomenon” that “affects practically all families”. “If this really happens and if the number of casualties among Russian soldiers continues to rise, one can expect that there will also be greater resistance to the war among the population,” Mueller said.
unprecedented brain drain
Many Russians are also leaving the country out of fear or resistance. Even before the partial mobilization, 200,000 highly qualified specialists had turned their backs on Russia. Migration researcher Olga Gulina appreciates this, as “Standard” reports.
“Russia is literally taking its brightest minds – from the academic elite to IT specialists, journalists, political and environmental activists and other skilled professionals,” said Galina. Such a migration is primarily an “outflow of ideas, companies and future potential”.
But most of all, according to British assessments, partial mobilization led to enormous “intellectual bloodshed” for Russia. Especially in the first seven days after the mobilization was announced, “a considerable exodus of Russians” began – the people wanted to avoid conscription.
According to “Standard”, the Kremlin is “alarmed” – the emigration of highly qualified specialists is increasingly affecting the Russian economy, especially the IT sector.
Prevented Critical Reports
However, it also cannot be denied that a large part of the population believes and follows Russian propaganda. And this is also not surprising: since the beginning of the war of aggression, the Putin government has prevented all media critical of the Kremlin from reporting. “Reports that deviate from the view of the Russian leadership are only indirectly accessible,” says the “Foundation for Science and Politics” (SWP) of the German Institute for International Politics and Security.
Even before the war, the classical mass media in Russia were controlled by the state. There were arrests and convictions of journalists who covered topics that could lead to “public discontent with the government”, according to the “Landeszentrale für politische Bildung Baden-Württemberg”. Since the beginning of the war of aggression, “there has been virtually no freedom of the press” in Russia, says the NGO Reporters Without Borders. The population receives information largely from state-controlled television stations. Russia currently ranks 155 out of 180 on the Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index.
Since the start of the war, all media outlets critical of the Kremlin have had their license revoked, while others have stopped operating for security reasons. In early March, for example, the radio station “Echo Moskwy” critical of the Kremlin was closed – it was the most important source of news for Russians who reject the propaganda of the state media. The “Novaya Gazeta”, which is considered one of the most important independent newspapers in the country, was also repealed.
According to a law passed in March 2022, “spreading false news” about the Russian armed forces can be punished with up to 15 years in prison. Moreover: whoever calls the “special operation” a war is also committing a crime in Russia.
Domestic political situation: “Dictatorial conditions”
According to Sabine Fischer of the SWP, Putin was elected in “troubled elections” in 2018. Through a constitutional reform, he made it possible for him to remain in office until 2036. clear in the decision-making process for this war of aggression,” said Fischer. Over the past 15 years, Russia has increasingly become an autocracy. After the start of the war of aggression, “the internal political situation deteriorated so much that we have to speak in dictatorial terms,” says Fischer.
What happens now? Other domestic political developments in Russia are “closely linked to the outcome of the war”, according to the “Foundation for Science and Politics”. Vladimir Putin needs a “victory” in the war with Ukraine to “secure his political future”. If Putin is not able to do this, the current regime may “fail”. The further course of the war is therefore decisive. It remains to be seen in which direction this will develop over the next year.
Despite, or perhaps because of, Russia’s recent military defeats, peace does not seem to be in sight.