The International Court of Justice has just declared itself competent to decide whether Russia's actions in Ukraine constitute genocide or not. The court must therefore decide simultaneously on two possible genocides: that of which Russia is accused in Ukraine and that of which Israel is accused in Gaza. This parallelism of the actions of both countries is not good for one or the other. The comparison between Russia and Israel can only discredit Russia among the people of the Arab world if the government of Vladimir Putin is found guilty. Conversely, there is a risk that the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu, already incensed at being the subject of a genocide investigation by the International Court of Justice, will be discredited in the public opinion of democratic countries, especially the United States. This could lead to a significant loss of influence for the Israeli government.
1) What are the two main elements of the definition of genocide?
The UN definition of genocide includes a material aspect of harming the survival of a given population, but also a clear intention to harm that sustainability. Both aspects must be present for genocide to occur.
2) What facts are accused of Russia?
Russia has captured almost a fifth of Ukraine's territory. Putin has expressed his intention to completely conquer Ukraine. He denies the existence of Ukraine and Ukrainian culture. The Russian army is said to have specifically targeted cultural institutions in Ukraine. The teaching of the Ukrainian language is prohibited in the Ukrainian territories occupied by it. However, Putin does not seek to wipe out the entire Ukrainian population or force them to leave Ukrainian territory entirely. He wants to Russify it. Although some cities became uninhabitable after Russian bombing, this does not apply to all Ukrainian territories conquered by the Russians.
- Listen to international political expert Loïc Tassé on Benoit Dutrizac's show QUB :
3) What facts is Israel accused of?
The destruction perpetrated by the Israeli army in Gaza is on an extraordinary scale. Almost half of all buildings in Gaza are destroyed or unusable. The people of Gaza are suffering from malnutrition and many of them are on the verge of starvation. Almost the entire population of Gaza has been displaced. Israeli extremists do not hide their intention to vacate Palestinian territory. The International Court of Justice, which had, among other things, called on the Israeli government not to hinder humanitarian aid in Gaza and to punish those who wanted to expel Gazans from their territories, did not seem to have been listened to.
4) Is the suffering of the population justified?
Regardless of the International Court of Justice's decision, the war in Ukraine and the war against the Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, are increasingly linked in global public opinion. Both Putin and Netanyahu risk being convicted of the same crime. The reasons both put forward to justify their actions are no match for the incredible and disproportionate suffering of the affected populations.
5) How is the cause likely to develop?
It is likely that the International Court of Justice will convict both countries of genocide. The best thing would be if Putin and Netanyahu had fallen by then. In the first case it is practically impossible, but in the second it is very likely. Both will go down in history as leaders who significantly weakened their countries both internally and externally.