What that deal would look like and what exactly it would entail is unclear and is still a matter of negotiation. But some points arise: Riyadh would recognize the State of Israel. It is unclear whether Saudi Crown Prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman (“MbS”) would go as far as the UAE and Bahrain in the Abraham Accords and whether there would also be an official peace agreement. What is more likely is a roadmap for the complete normalization of relations.
In return, Riyadh would receive the most modern US fighter jets and a formal security pact. Above all, Riyadh calls for nuclear technology, officially for peaceful purposes. Given that, according to media reports, Crown Prince Mohammed demands knowledge and materials for uranium enrichment, this could – similar to what happened with Iran – lead to the development of a nuclear bomb. And Mohammed recently emphasized that if Iran ever had a nuclear bomb, his country would also need nuclear weapons for deterrence.
IT for “Peace Railway”
There would probably be economic cooperation agreements between the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Israel’s IT sector has a lot to offer Riyadh here – to the extent that cooperation, such as in security and interception technology, does not yet exist unofficially. The previously theoretical plan for a rail link from Saudi Arabia to Israel’s Mediterranean coast could also be revived as a prestigious special project and symbol of the Arab world growing alongside the Jewish State.
APA/AFP/Abdel Ghani Bashir State-of-the-art weapons and a security pact with the US should also make Saudi Arabia a military supremacist
What is unusual is that negotiations are not carried out in the strictest secrecy. This is normally the case with sensitive international agreements, in order not to jeopardize an agreement due to domestic political resistance. Both Prince Mohammed and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed in interviews in recent days that progress was being made in negotiations every day.
Short time window
In fact, there is still a window of a few months, at the latest until the beginning of summer, when the US election campaign gets into full swing. The fact that all parties are talking so openly and euphorically about the negotiations probably indicates that many risks have already been placed: the Crown Prince said in a rare interview that it seemed “real and serious” for the first time. A pact would be “the biggest historic agreement since the Cold War,” Mohammed told US television channel FoxNews.
Netanyahu said they were on the verge of a deal. Netanyahu also told Fox News that this would be a “quantum leap” that would “change the relationship between Judaism and Islam” and have an impact on Muslims around the world.
Entry into the history books
For the three people involved, Biden, Netanyahu and Prince Mohammed, it would be a foreign policy coup with which they could enter the history books. This is particularly important for Netanyahu, whose image as a central political figure in his country has been seriously tarnished, especially due to his corruption accusations.
For Biden, it would be a great foreign policy success with which he could enter the election campaign. And he could oppose his likely competitor, Trump, to the success that Trump sought but failed to achieve during his term in office. The US would counter China’s ambitions in the Middle East and would also calm oil markets with the strengthened alliance with the Saudis. Mohammed, in turn, could finally crown himself as the only reference figure in his own country.
Iran and Egypt on the defensive
A lot could change in the Middle East in the short and medium term: Iran would be visibly weakened geostrategically for now. It is unclear whether this year’s Chinese-brokered rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran would sustain a Saudi-Israeli deal or whether hostility would erupt openly again. In any case, there is a risk that the new alliance will trigger an arms race in the region.
Thanks to US arms deliveries, Saudi Arabia will sooner or later be able to assume the unique leadership role in the Arab world, which the oil power previously shared with Egypt, which is significantly stronger militarily.
Possible government restructuring in Israel
There is speculation in Israel that there could be a reorganization of the government coalition, in order to achieve the agreement through the Knesset. It is widely believed that the far-right parties of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotritsch and Interior Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir would not agree to the deal; centrist politician Benny Ganz could join the government instead. From Biden’s perspective, it would be two birds with one blow: the historic bilateral agreement and a more moderate Israeli government. According to critics of the Israeli government and Biden’s US Democrats, the judicial restructuring currently underway is endangering Israel’s democracy. This would be another positive point in the upcoming US election campaign.
Portal/Brendan Mcdermid At UN headquarters last week, Netanyahu showed a map in which the occupied West Bank is incorporated into Israel
Concessions to Palestinians?
A deal will likely make or break with the Palestinians. The unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict is at the heart of the conflict in the Middle East. Even though this issue is increasingly falling down the list of priorities, even in Arab capitals. Due to strong public solidarity with the Palestinians alone, Riyadh should receive Israeli concessions on this issue. Palestinian delegations have been in Riyadh for months for talks. It is unclear how far Mohammed is pushing Netanyahu here. It recently failed to mention the 2002 Arab peace initiative, which offered Israel normalization of relations in exchange for a complete withdrawal from occupied territories.
Netanyahu himself has repeatedly avoided making concrete and irreversible concessions to the Palestinians in the past. It’s hard to imagine things would be different this time. A solution to the conflict based on the two-state solution, which is still represented as a model internationally, is not in sight and appears difficult to implement in a meaningful way due to decades of activity in Israeli settlements. Many Israeli settlements would have to be dismantled to reestablish a closed Palestinian territory in the West Bank. This is unlikely to apply in Israel.
In the shadow of 30 years of the Oslo Accords
President Mahmoud Abbas’s ruling PLO could still reach an agreement if appropriate concessions were made. Its power base is crumbling and the radical Islamist Hamas, supported by Iran, is becoming increasingly strong in the West Bank. Many Palestinians currently fear that they will once again become pawns of “higher” interests.
It is clear that, despite all normalization, the end of violence in the Middle East can only occur through a solution to the territorial conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. The last major attempt to achieve this now celebrates its 30th anniversary: the Oslo Agreement of September 1993 – initially applauded and awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, but which has long since failed completely. But “MbS” and “King Bibi” Netanyahu probably agree on this point anyway: a Saudi-Israeli agreement should not attempt to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.