• It is the 53rd day of the war: According to Hamas, over 14,800 Palestinians have been killed, including 5,600 children. In Israel, 1,200 people died in the attack on October 7th.
• Israel: “Deal reached over hostages, 9 children and two mothers”. Hamas confirms two-day ceasefire extension.
• The words and acronyms to understand the conflict: Here is the glossary.
• The history of the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis, explained here.
7:02 a.m. – The pacifist Yocheved was initially released by Hamas: now she is helping Israel support the returnees
(by Davide Frattini, correspondent in Tel Aviv) She weighed 10 kilos less when she was released, but Yocheved did not leave Gaza lighter. Her husband Oded, 63 years together, remained behind in the dungeons under the sand. Above all, the retired teacher never gave up the burden of his mission: to remain human. After she regained her strength and her angular face became a little rounder, she went back to work to carry out the gesture she repeated throughout her life: helping others. (…)
6:51 a.m. – The current state of affairs
(Gianluca Mercuri) The new ceasefire between Israel and Hamas: two more days of ceasefire, the release of the hostages, the unknowns about the consequences: point by point:
• The expansion
With mediation from Qatar, Egypt and the United States, the Jewish state and the Palestinian Islamist organization agreed to extend by two days the ceasefire that began on Friday and was due to end yesterday evening with the fourth prisoner exchange. That is six days without fighting in the war that was triggered by Hamas’ terrorist massacre on October 7th in the Israeli kibbutzim around the Gaza Strip (1,200 dead and around 240 people kidnapped).
• The fourth exchange
Last night both sides exchanged prisoners for the fourth day in a row. Hamas released 9 children and two women, Israel released 33 Palestinians: 3 women and 30 minors imprisoned for throwing stones. A total of 69 hostages have now been released, including 50 Israelis and 19 of other nationalities, especially Thais. The number of Palestinians who have returned freely is 117.
• The other hostages
Around 170 people remain in the hands of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Among them are dozens of soldiers, about whom the terrorists want to enter into separate negotiations, and at a higher price. Israel reiterates its willingness to grant an additional day of ceasefire for every ten hostages released. According to Israeli media, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar met some of the released hostages, which would confirm his stay in the Gaza Strip. Sinwar uses the tactic of psychological blackmail by taking family members hostage and relying on pressure from both those who have already been released and those who have not yet seen relatives.
• The humanitarian situation
Be dramatic. The agreement provides for the import of 160 to 200 relief trucks per day, half of what arrived before the war in a catastrophic situation. Palestinian deaths calculated by the Hamas Ministry of Health (which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants and does not disclose its own casualties) are over 13,300. Israeli estimates put the casualties at 15,000, 10,000 civilians and 5,000 terrorists, and thousands of bodies are buried under the rubble.
• But what will happen after the ceasefire?
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reiterated that Israel has no intention of finally giving up the goal of eradicating Hamas from Gaza after 16 years: “The fighting will be even bigger and will take place across the entire Gaza Strip.” We will not stop until we are done.
• What is the population at risk?
Losses are likely to be even worse than before, as most of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have concentrated in the south after the Israelis ordered them to evacuate the north, which has now been largely razed to the ground. Two out of three residents have been forced to leave their homes and a million people are crowded into UN facilities.
• What is the American position?
Three days ago, President Biden said that destroying Hamas was “legitimate” but “difficult,” casting doubt on the viability of Israel’s goal. What worries the US is that extending the fighting south, into an area where civilians have gathered precisely at Israel’s request, would make it harder to contain the protests of America’s Arab allies. And also the European ones, which have already been started by Spain and Belgium.
Biden has internal consensus problems exacerbated by the war, and in the coming weeks his relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has openly supported Donald Trump in recent years, could experience new critical phases. In this context, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is about to return to Israel for his third visit in recent weeks.
(This analysis was published in PrimaOra, the newsletter that the Corriere provides for its subscribers. To receive it you must subscribe to Il Punto: you can do this here and it is free for 30 days.)
5:44 a.m. – Palestinian civilians reject Israel’s “occupation” and Hamas’s “dictatorship,” according to an academic study
A political scientist from Princeton in the United States, after conducting an opinion poll in the Palestinian territories shortly before the Hamas attack on October 7, concluded that the population feels exposed to both the “occupation” of Israel and the “dictatorship” of Israel Palestinian movements. For the American-Palestinian researcher Amaney Jamal, dean of the Faculty of Public and International Affairs at the renowned university, civilians in Gaza have been subjected to the Israeli blockade since 2007, but two-thirds of them do not trust the Islamist power of the Gaza Strip “authoritarian” Hamas to improve their own lot. “We have this Israeli occupation” of the Palestinian territories “and we have these Hamas and Palestinian Authority regimes that have become more dictatorial and authoritarian over time,” Jamal argues. “So much so that the average Palestinian (…), accustomed to the occupation of a single power (Israel), now lives under the occupation of two powers, one Israeli and one Palestinian,” analyzes this California-born 52 -year-old academic who spent his youth in Ramallah. With his colleague Michael Robbins, Amaney Jamal founded the “Arab Barometer,” sociological surveys and opinion polls that have been conducted every two years since 2006 in 16 countries in the Middle East and North Africa. The study, titled “What Palestinians Really Think About Hamas,” was conducted on 790 people in the West Bank and 399 in the Gaza Strip. It took place from the end of September to October 6th and was interrupted on the 7th by the Hamas attack on Israel. The results surprised the two scientists.
No “trust” in Hamas
“Before the October 7 attacks, 67% of Palestinians in Gaza had little or no trust in Hamas,” the political scientist revealed. This result was intended to undermine “the thesis that the entire Gaza Strip supports Hamas and that therefore the entire Gaza Strip should be held responsible for the terrible acts of Hamas,” a “terrorist” group according to Israel and the United States and the European Union. Amaney Jamal and Michael Robbins published their unexpected findings a month ago in the journal Foreign Affairs, and the researcher commented on them in a New York Times podcast. In Gaza, pollsters focused on the economic blockade that Israel has imposed on the coastal area since 2007. “Who do you blame for your economic problems?” asked the two researchers. “We thought that the main culprit because of the blockade would be Israel. But most people tended to cite Hamas’ corruption,” Amaney Jamal reported.
Abbas at “9%”
“What the residents of the West Bank and Gaza Strip say in this survey is that, in addition to the Israeli blockade, there is also the corruption of their governments,” reports Jamal, taking aim at Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, elected in 2005, who today only receives “9 %” of positive opinions. Furthermore, in Gaza, before October 7, “two-thirds (of respondents) said they did not have the means to feed their family in the last 30 days,” the researcher says. Evidence that Gaza society is economically “disadvantaged” and vulnerable to the “corrupt power of Hamas.” Although no elections have taken place since 2006, the majority of Palestinians in Gaza “deny the authoritarianism of Hamas,” emphasizes Amaney Jamal. In fact, on the eve of October 7, “60% said they could not express their opinions freely and openly, and 72% said they could not demonstrate peacefully for fear of retaliation.” Has this hostility of Palestinian public opinion toward Hamas increased or decreased after a six-week war that claimed 1,200 lives in Israel and nearly 14,900 in Gaza? Amaney Jamal Michael Robbins responded in part in “Foreign Affairs” in late October: “The suffering the Palestinians are enduring has likely radicalized them, which could threaten long-term peace and stability.” Before October 7, “80% wanted ” of the Palestinians surveyed wanted a diplomatic agreement with Israel, of which “56% wanted a two-state solution, the rest wanted a one-state or confederation solution,” specifies the researcher “The people in Gaza seemed open to a two-state solution.” Solution, for a peaceful reconciliation with Israel on the basis of the 1967 borders. Only the remaining “20%,” he emphasizes, were inclined to “armed resistance.”
3:56 a.m. – Middle East: Austin Gallant call about hostages and ceasefire
According to a statement from the Pentagon, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Defense Secretary Yoav Gallant. According to the statement, Gallant informed his American counterpart about the hostage situation during the ceasefire in Gaza, Haaretz writes. “The minister informed about American support for security assistance to Israel; reiterated the need to increase humanitarian assistance to Gaza; and called on state and non-state actors to avoid escalating the current conflict. Secretary Austin also provided an update on U.S. efforts to protect its forces and interests throughout the Middle East,” the Pentagon said.
2:30 a.m. – US State Department, Blinken in Israel and the West Bank
The US State Department confirmed claims by an official in Brussels that Antony Blinken will travel to Israel and the West Bank this week after attending the NATO summit in Belgium and the OSCE summit in North Macedonia. “In Israel and the West Bank,” said a statement from the US Department spokesman, Blinken will speak about Israel’s right to defend itself in accordance with international humanitarian law, as well as continued efforts to secure the release of hostages and to protect civilians during Israeli operations in Gaza and expedite humanitarian assistance.”
02:00 – Middle East: Israel receives a list of 10 hostages that Hamas will release today
The Israeli government has received the list of ten hostages held by Hamas who will be released today, Tuesday. The Haaretz website writes this, stating that the families have been notified.
00:22 – Israel, “33 Palestinian prisoners released”
The Israel Prisons Authority said 33 Palestinian prisoners were released “overnight” under the terms of the agreement. The release brought the total number of detainees released by Israel during the first four-day lull in fighting to 150.