The Gaza Strip’s 2.3 million residents are facing the start of an impending ground invasion announced by the Israeli army after Israel on Friday ordered residents in the Palestinian enclave’s north to evacuate to the south. The UN has confirmed that at least 600,000 Palestinians out of the 1.1 million population in the northern Gaza Strip have already fled their homes to seek refuge and avoid an onslaught that was preceded by heavy airstrikes after the fundamentalist group Hamas attacked Israeli territory On October 7, 1,400 people were killed and around 200 kidnapped. Meanwhile, the only border crossing not controlled by Israel – the Rafah crossing, which connects Gaza to Egypt – remains closed to refugees and humanitarian aid. According to the Gaza Ministry of Health, more than 2,800 Gazans have been killed by the shelling so far.
What is happening in Gaza?
Israel on Friday ordered all residents of the northern Gaza Strip to move south of the Wadi Gaza River before announcing a military operation “by land, sea and air,” an Israeli army spokesman announced. At least 600,000 Palestinians have since left their homes in the northern part of the enclave, according to the UN, whose Secretary-General António Guterres called the exodus “extremely dangerous and in some cases simply impossible.” Hamas, for its part, urged residents to stay in their homes, dismissing the Israeli order as “propaganda aimed at confusing citizens and destroying internal Palestinian cohesion.”
Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has imposed a “total siege” on the Gaza Strip since October 7, when Hamas – considered a terrorist organization by the EU and US – attacked southern Israel. The blockade of the enclave includes cutting off supplies of water, electricity, food and fuel.
The siege, the massive expulsion order and the more than 6,000 bombs Israel has dropped since the day of the Hamas attack have turned Gaza into a trap. The enclave’s two main border crossings – Erez, which is under Israeli control, and Rafah, which is administered by Egypt – are closed to people and humanitarian aid. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are seeking shelter in Gaza’s 92 U.N. schools and hospitals, which are running out of fuel to power the generators that power incubators and ventilators.
What does Israel intend to do in Gaza?
Israel has announced its intention to “completely destroy the government and military capacity of Hamas and terrorist organizations” and has deployed large numbers of troops along Gaza’s borders. In addition to the Israeli regular army, estimated at 160,000 soldiers, the Israeli government has mobilized 300,000 reservists.
Israel has carried out a massive bombardment of the Gaza Strip, particularly the outskirts of Gaza City, in what is being interpreted as an attempt to pave the way for the entry of its troops. Pictures show how entire streets were razed to the ground. The order for the population to move south shows that the Israeli army has no intention of occupying the entire Gaza Strip. Nor is there any indication that Israel intends to maintain indefinite control of the territory it unilaterally relinquished in 2005: re-occupation would be economically, politically and diplomatically costly and costly to Israeli lives. Gideon Saar, a minister without portfolio in the government of national unity formed on October 11, has already announced that Gaza “must be smaller at the end of the war,” alluding to the establishment of a security zone between the Palestinian enclave and Israel to prevent attacks like the one on October 7th.
What are the difficulties of a ground invasion?
A ground operation in Gaza is very complicated. As demonstrated in cities like Aleppo in Syria, urban warfare allows an initially weaker opponent – such as Hamas’s armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades – to defend itself against a very strong opponent in the short and medium term powerful conventional force like the Israeli army.
An abundance of hideouts and parapets providing cover for snipers and ambushes, the effectiveness of guerrilla warfare in streets and buildings or rubble, greater knowledge of the terrain, and the network of 500 kilometers of underground tunnels under Hamas control make Israel aware of this ground operation likely to result in a large number of casualties. According to human rights organizations, the use of weapons such as heavy artillery against densely populated urban areas represents another red line that Israel is already crossing: international humanitarian law prohibits attacks on civilians.
Hamas militants are elated after their unexpected success on October 7th. One of the central aspects of their ideology is also the cult of martyrs; They have carried out several suicide attacks in the past. An opponent who is not afraid of death is much more dangerous.
What are Israel’s chances of wiping out Hamas?
Israel has already announced the deaths of some Hamas military commanders in the bombings in Gaza. However, eliminating the organization’s leadership and ending its dominance over the territory is a complicated task. Israel has shown no signs of wanting to occupy Gaza, so it is likely that the group’s leaders will seek refuge in the south, where the Israeli army has ordered civilians to settle. Although to a lesser extent than in the past, Hamas continues to enjoy popular support in Gaza and the West Bank. In May, the Islamic Bloc, Hamas’ student organization, won elections for student councils at major West Bank universities, which are now the only democratic institutions in Palestine. The group also has foreign support and funding from Qatar and Iran, and it is not impossible that it will rebuild its leadership if its current members are killed.
What did Hamas plan to do with its attack?
With its offensive, the success of which surprised even its own leaders, Hamas probably intended not only to deal a serious blow to the security of the Israeli state and its citizens’ trust in the government, but also to present itself to Palestinian public opinion as the dominant political actor, in the Contrast with the discredited Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank and has proven helpless in the face of an Israeli occupation tolerated by the international community. The aggressive policy of expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank pushed by Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government largely explains why this year has been the deadliest in history for Palestinians living in this Israeli-occupied territory. In September, Save the Children put the number of children killed by Israeli forces so far this year at 38, the worst figure ever recorded.
Many analysts have speculated that Hamas, whose allies and financiers include Iran, may also have intended the attack to send a message to Saudi Arabia to encourage the establishment of relations between the Sunni superpower and Israel, which almost was taken, to cause failure, of course. The militia explained that taking hostages as a basis for negotiations for the approximately 6,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons was another motivation. Among these prisoners, several hundred are in administrative detention without charge or trial, and around 200 of them are minors. The issue of prisoners is one of the most sensitive for Palestinian society.
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