The ceasefire that began Friday between Israel and Hamas could be extended for a few days to allow for further exchanges of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, but it appears unlikely to last for long.
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Fighting has paused but a lasting ceasefire appears out of reach.
According to Israeli authorities, about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed and 240 taken hostage on October 7 in the Palestinian Islamist movement’s most violent attack on Israel, the most violent in the country’s history.
In response, Israel heavily bombed the Gaza Strip and then launched a ground offensive that, according to the Hamas government, killed more than 15,000 people, mostly civilians.
How many hostages were released?
Since the ceasefire began, 60 Israelis and dual nationals have been released.
In addition, there were a total of 23 releases of foreigners (19 Thais, one Filipino, three Russians) outside of the agreement, i.e. without compensation for Palestinian prisoners.
Five hostages were released before the ceasefire.
How many hostages are left?
Neither the Israeli authorities nor Hamas have ever provided a list of hostages. According to authorities, about 240 people were taken to Gaza.
On Tuesday, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari confirmed that he could not accurately quantify the number of hostages still held.
According to AFP calculations, around 130 people are still being held in Gaza, including at least 36 women and minors. But Bassem Naïm, Hamas manager, recalls that the movement’s armed wing “has already announced that 60 hostages are dead.”
The remains of deceased hostages could also be a topic in future negotiations.
Who is holding the hostages?
Hamas is in a position to release more hostages “that it is holding along with other resistance movements and other parties,” a source close to the movement said on Wednesday.
It thus confirms that, in addition to the Islamic Jihad, which also hosts them, other Palestinian organizations and criminal groups are undoubtedly also involved.
The Israeli authorities are silent on this issue.
How many Palestinian prisoners have been released?
The ceasefire agreement stipulates that for every hostage released, three Palestinian prisoners will be released from Israeli prisons.
A total of 180 prisoners – women and young people aged 19 and younger – had already returned to their homes in the occupied West Bank or East Jerusalem on Wednesday.
What are the challenges for the Gaza Strip?
Each day of the ceasefire allows Hamas to reorganize after weeks of intense bombing and an Israeli ground operation that has significantly weakened it.
The movement acknowledged the loss of only a handful of commanders. But an Israeli official told AFP that the army had “eliminated hundreds of terrorists and most of the battalion commanders.”
Each extension also allows for the release of additional prisoners, a victory for the Palestinian masses, of which Hamas is today the crowning glory.
“This ceasefire takes into account humanitarian but also tactical needs on the ground,” an Islamic Jihad spokesman told AFP on Wednesday.
What are the challenges for Israel?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the General Staff reiterate that the military operation is not yet over. “We will continue until the end, until the victory. Nothing will stop us,” he said on Sunday.
But Israeli public opinion remains mobilized to release all hostages.
Israel’s long-term goals are clearly stated: destroy Hamas’ political and military leadership, create a new sustainable security framework for Israel and free all hostages.
How long can the ceasefire last?
The mediators – Qatar, Egypt and the United States – are working to silence the guns and improve the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected in Israel on Wednesday night in the hope of “experiencing this extended break”.
On Tuesday in Doha, Majed Al Ansari said he could “say with some certainty” that around twenty hostages would be released “within 48 hours.”
In addition, no children or civilian women should remain among the hostages. Men between the ages of 20 and 40, like all Israelis, are reservists, regardless of whether they were on duty on October 7 or not.
They are therefore seen as soldiers in Gaza, which changes the nature of the discussions. To date, according to AFP, there are still at least eleven soldiers, including four women and around forty men of reservist age.
What are the previous hostage-taking cases?
The most symbolic hostage case dates back to 2011, when soldier Gilad Shalit was released after five years in Gaza in exchange for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners. Among them is Yahya Sinouar, now head of Hamas, who is considered the architect of October 7th.
And then ?
A resumption of fighting would once again risk expanding the conflict in the region, particularly involving the pro-Iranian Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, which fired several rockets at Israel’s northern border after October 7 without opening a real second front .
Conversely, a solid ceasefire would eventually allow for a resumption of talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia on normalizing their relations.
