Israel reported a rocket attack from Lebanon on Sunday. The bombing of an army vehicle in the north of the country resulted in twelve people being injured, media reported, citing a clinic close to the incident. The soldiers were hit by shrapnel. The Lebanese television channel al-Manar, run by the pro-Iranian terrorist militia Hezbollah, confirmed the attack.
For weeks, there were almost daily battles and attacks between Hezbollah and the Israeli army on the Lebanese-Israeli border. There have been deaths on both sides. According to Israeli sources, thousands of Hezbollah fighters are believed to be in the Lebanese-Israeli border region. But Israel and its strategic partners do not agree on how to proceed.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has so far bowed to American pressure, but Israeli military officials, especially Defense Minister Joav Galant, are pushing for broader action against Hezbollah. According to media reports, Israeli military officials recently said that Israel is just one deadly Hezbollah attack away from a new war in Lebanon and are calling for a decisive step against its northern neighbor.
UNIFIL calls for “long-term solutions”
Recently, however, the UN peacekeeping force for peacekeeping in the region (UNIFIL) warned that any further escalation in southern Lebanon could have devastating consequences. Both sides must strive for “long-term solutions” and end mutual hostilities, the mission said.
The US argues similarly. For Israel’s strategic partner, it is important, among other things, to prevent the conflict on the Lebanese-Israeli border from spreading, so that there is no conflagration in the region, in which even more states like Iran are involved. The US also continues to expect a normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Negotiations on this issue have been suspended since the Hamas attack.
Netanyahu, for his part, his advisers say, hopes that a clear victory over Hamas in Gaza will lead Hezbollah to withdraw its forces from Lebanon’s southern border with Israel. But the biggest fear of residents in Israel’s border area, according to their own statements, is that Hezbollah fighters will cross the border and kill women and children, as Hamas did on October 7, which killed more than 1,200 people .
Deadliest violence since 2006
The Wall Street Journal (“WSJ”) reported in late November that dozens of Hezbollah fighters as well as several Lebanese civilians and Israeli soldiers had already been killed in fighting on the Lebanese-Israeli border. It is the deadliest increase in violence in the area since the 2006 Lebanon War.
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How does October 7th change the Middle East?
At that time, according to human rights groups, more than 1,100 people were killed in Israeli air strikes, most of them civilians. Israeli rockets destroyed large parts of Hezbollah-controlled neighborhoods in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, which has more inhabitants than the entire Gaza Strip.
Israeli military camps in the north
Hezbollah’s attacks prompted Israel to send troops to its northern border and evacuate tens of thousands of people from the area, fearing the attacks could escalate into a full-scale war. According to the Lebanese government, tens of thousands of civilians have fled southern Lebanon for fear of military conflict.
The Israeli army has turned some northern border towns into unofficial military camps, with tanks and armored vehicles waiting in the streets. Security officials in the region estimate that around 100,000 Israeli troops are stationed on the border – a number the Israeli military declined to comment on.
Portal/Alexander Ermochenko It is estimated that around 100,000 Israeli soldiers are stationed on the Lebanese-Israeli border
Israel: Hezbollah has more than 150,000 rockets
Israel estimates that Hezbollah has more than 150,000 rockets. According to Israeli estimates, the militia could fire 3,000 rockets per day, which would put enormous pressure on Israel’s air defense system.
Just a few weeks after Hamas’ attack on Israel, the leader of the Hezbollah militia, Hassan Nasrallah, spoke out in early November. In his speech, he glorified Hamas’ attack on Israel, but at the same time said that Hamas’ attack on Israel was “100 percent Palestinian.”
Portal/Mohamed Azakir Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah recently spoke out and glorified Hamas’ attack on Israel
However, he kept all options open on the Lebanese front. An escalation is a “realistic possibility,” Nasrallah said. It all depends on how the war in the Gaza Strip will continue. He blamed the US for the current situation there.
Support from Iran
Iran’s support for militias also fits this narrative. Hezbollah, designated a terrorist organization by the United States and other countries, was founded after the 1982 Lebanon War and has long-standing ties with Iran and is considered its strongest military representative in the Middle East. Some of its fighters were trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
Hezbollah also serves Iran’s broader goals in the Middle East by opposing any Western or Israeli presence in the region. In the 1990s, Hezbollah assumed a more formal political role in Lebanon and became an important faction in the country’s ruling alliance.
The goal is to end Israel
Like Hezbollah, Hamas is also supported by Iran, although the group’s ties are not as long-lasting and, until recently, Hamas was seen as an outsider among Iran’s representatives in the region. But both Hezbollah, to the north of Israel, and Hamas, to the south, seek the elimination of the Israeli state.
The US and Israel recently warned Hezbollah and its supporters in Tehran to stay out of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. A few weeks ago, US envoy Amos Hochstein visited Lebanon and called for the “restoration of calm on the southern border” with Israel. It is “of the utmost importance to the United States.”
USA: Wagner wants to provide air defense system
More recently, US National Security Council communications director John Kirby said the Russian mercenary group wants to provide Iran or Hezbollah with an air defense system. Wagner is preparing the delivery “by order of the Russian government,” Kirby said. They will monitor this closely and are prepared to impose sanctions against Russia. The matter is explosive because Iran already supplies Russia with drones and artillery ammunition.