Opinion
The official narrative is that Hamas is weakened, but in reality the IDF's doctrine of massive force is failing
- Paul Rogers is Emeritus Professor of Peace Studies at Bradford University
Thu, December 21, 2023, 3:00 p.m. GMT
Until recently, the narrative about the Gaza war was largely controlled by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the country's Ministry of Defense. Israel's international reputation may have declined by killing more than 20,000 Palestinians, wounding more than 50,000 and destroying much of the Gaza Strip, but the IDF was still able to sell a plausible narrative of a greatly weakened Hamas and even claim that the war The northern Gaza Strip was largely completed and success in the southern Gaza Strip was not long in coming.
The narrative was aided by the great difficulties faced by the few journalists still working in Gaza, including the risk to their personal safety, while the international press was stuck in Jerusalem and dependent on IDF sources for much of its information.
That changed when a different picture emerged. First, there was a lack of evidence to support the IDF's claim of a Hamas headquarters beneath al-Shifa Hospital, and then the IDF was unable to determine the whereabouts of the Israeli hostages despite having some of the most advanced intelligence in the world.
There have been two further incidents recently. On December 12, a clever triple ambush staged by Hamas paramilitaries occurred in a part of the Gaza Strip supposedly controlled by Israeli forces. An IDF unit was ambushed, causing casualties. More troops were sent to assist this unit and they were then ambushed, as were reinforcements.
Ten IDF soldiers were reportedly killed and others were seriously injured, but seniority counted, including a colonel and three majors from the elite Golani Brigade. That Hamas, supposedly decimated and with thousands of soldiers already killed, could launch such an operation anywhere in Gaza, let alone a district reportedly already under IDF control, should do so raise doubts the idea that Israel is making significant progress in the war.
Another clue came a few days later when three Israeli hostages managed to escape their captors, only to be killed by IDF soldiers despite being shirtless and carrying a white flag. What has since made matters worse and caused considerable anger in Israel is the fact that the hostages' calls were picked up by an audio-equipped IDF tracking dog five days before their murder.
There are other, broader clues to the IDF's problems. According to official casualty figures, more than 460 military personnel were killed and around 1,900 injured in Gaza, Israel and the occupied West Bank. However, other sources indicate a much larger number of wounded. Ten days ago, Israel's leading daily Yedioth Ahronoth published information it had received from the Defense Ministry's rehabilitation department. This brings the number of victims to over 5,000, of which 58% are classified as severe and more than 2,000 are officially considered disabled. There were also a number of casualties from friendly fires, with the Times of Israel reporting 20 of 105 deaths from such fires or accidents during the fighting.
Overall, the IDF continues to follow the long-standing Dahiya doctrine of massive force in responding to irregular wars, resulting in significant social and economic damage, undermining the insurgents' will to fight, while deterring future threats to Israel's security. But things go completely wrong. Criticism comes from unexpected quarters, including from former British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, who has warned of 50-year repercussions. Even the Biden administration is uneasy about what has happened, but Benjamin Netanyahu and the War Cabinet are determined to carry on for as long as possible.
It's worth recognizing why. The October 7 attacks and the associated brutality deeply affected Israel's security concerns, meaning that the vast majority of Israeli Jews have so far continued to support Netanyahu's response. But even that is worse, and made worse by the killing of the three hostages by IDF troops.
All of this means that IDF commanders will be under enormous pressure to succeed and go as far as the War Cabinet allows. Many of these commanders are highly intelligent, if necessarily determined, people, and they will now know that despite all of Netanyahu's rhetoric, Hamas, or at least Hamas's ideas, cannot be defeated by military force. They also know that while talks are stalled, pressure from the hostages' families could soon lead to another humanitarian pause. Therefore, their goal will be to harm Hamas as much as possible, as quickly as possible and for as long as they can, at whatever cost it costs the Palestinians. Evidence of this approach is this week's intense airstrikes.
This is made possible by Netanyahu's reliance on an extremist minority of religious fundamentalists and sharp-tongued Zionists in his government. Without the October 7 tragedy, they would not have received anywhere near the widespread support in Israel, yet they are doing ever more damage to Israel's long-term security. Not only does Israel risk becoming a pariah state even among its allies, but it will also fuel a generation of radical opposition from a reconstituted Hamas or its inevitable successor.
It needs to be saved from itself, but that will depend more than anything on Joe Biden and the people around him. Perhaps spurred by the rapidly changing public mood in Western Europe, they must recognize their role in ending this conflict immediately.
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