The failure of Israeli intelligence services to predict Hamas’s bloody and unprecedented offensive against their country was due to a complete misunderstanding of the Palestinian Islamist group, experts say.
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Israel was caught by surprise at dawn on Saturday when Hamas fired thousands of rockets from the Gaza Strip it controls, sending more than a thousand fighters into its territory, killing hundreds of people and displacing at least 100 more.
The army immediately deployed tens of thousands of soldiers to regain control of Hamas. Its forces continue to fight Palestinians entrenched in the south and its air force has bombed hundreds of targets in the Gaza Strip.
According to a recent official report, more than 700 people died on the Israeli side, the highest death toll in an anti-Israel attack. According to an NGO, up to 250 of them were massacred at a “rave party” near Gaza.
“This is a huge failure of the intelligence system and military apparatus in the south,” which borders Gaza, stressed retired Gen. Yaakov Amidror, Israel’s national security adviser. 2011 to 2013.
AFP
But aside from the fact that reputable Israeli intelligence agencies failed to detect or block this carefully planned attack, the Israeli authorities’ general understanding of Hamas is completely wrong, he told reporters.
“We made a huge mistake, myself included, when we believed that a terrorist organization could change its DNA,” said Mr. Amidror, currently a researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
“Our friends around the world told us that they (Hamas) were behaving more responsibly, and we were stupid to believe that.”
AFP
Hamas, considered a “terrorist” group by Israel, the United States and the European Union, has controlled Gaza since it ousted its rival Fatah in 2007, two years after Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from the area.
The charter of Hamas, Israel’s archenemy against which it advocates armed struggle, calls for an Islamic state throughout the Palestinian territories. Israel continues to occupy the West Bank, including annexed East Jerusalem.
AFP
Several wars between Israel and Hamas since 2007 have been marked by devastating Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip aimed at destroying Hamas’ military infrastructure, as well as rocket attacks on Israel.
To ensure a lasting ceasefire, Israel had increased work and trade permits for Gazans after the 2021 war, allowing about 18,500 workers to enter Israel, while about half of Gaza’s population is unemployed.
Israel believed that economic stimulus was a way to maintain calm.
On October 1, Israel’s national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi reiterated that in his opinion Hamas had not launched rocket attacks in the past two years.
AFP
“Hamas is showing great restraint” and knows the price of a possible escalation, he told military radio.
For Michael Milshtein, director of the Palestinian Studies Forum at Tel Aviv University, such comments show “that we had a completely wrong idea about Hamas.”
“The idea of economic incentives that could reduce Hamas’s motivation to commit terrorist acts or even push (Palestinian) public opinion to oppose the movement has completely collapsed,” he told AFP.
“You are dealing with a radical ideological organization. Do you really think you can redeem their ideology? Change? This is a complete misunderstanding and probably wishful thinking,” says Mr Milshtein.
Meanwhile, “they were gaining strength and preparing for the next phase of their war.”
This retired intelligence officer claims that the Hamas leadership has publicly announced its intention to carry out an offensive like Saturday’s.
“The operation has been prepared for almost a year, which is incredible because this year Israel has further increased the number of work permits (granted to Palestinians) and concessions,” he said.
“Israel’s position was that Hamas did not want escalation,” while “the message was clear, but they (those in charge) didn’t want to believe it,” he says.
On Saturday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that when he headed the military command for the southern regions in 2009, he wanted to “break the neck” of Hamas but was prevented from doing so by politicians.
Today he doesn’t feel subjected to any constraints. “We will change the reality on the ground in Gaza,” he promised: “What was before will no longer be.”