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After a weekend of sharp escalation of exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah, the Tel Aviv government decided this Monday (16) to evacuate the entire population in a 2 km strip from the border with southern Lebanon and transfer residents to state pensions .
The range includes 28 cities and municipalities. Already on Friday (13), the government had set up a 4 km long exclusion zone in the northernmost city next to Lebanon, Metula. On Sunday, an Israeli died after being hit by one of five antitank missiles fired by Hezbollah, which in turn came under attack from Israeli artillery and warplanes.
This Monday (16) there was a decrease in activity with more sporadic exchanges of fire, perhaps reflecting fears of an unpredictable and regionalized development of the war between Tel Aviv and the terrorist group Hamas, whose ally is Hezbollah. The units are supported by Iran , Israel’s major regional rival.
Throughout Sunday, American officials warned Tehran against encouraging its regional representatives to open a second front for the Israelis.
“My message to Iran is: Don’t cross the border, don’t escalate the war,” President Joe Biden concluded in his first lengthy interview since the start of the crisis, which was triggered two weeks ago when Hamas brutally attacked Israeli communities in the worstcase scenario had attack on the country in 50 years.
Less measured, the Americans reinforced their position by sending their largest nuclear aircraft carrier to the region and sending a second one to arrive in three weeks. They also stationed additional fighter and attack aircraft at their bases in the Middle East, and their ally Great Britain sent two warships to the eastern Mediterranean.
Iran, for its part, has sent contradictory signals. This Monday, President Ebrahim Raisi said that his allies make “independent decisions,” reiterating the official position that he did not take part in the Hamas attacks. In a telephone conversation with Russian Vladimir Putin, he also said “that there is a possibility that the conflict will spread to other fronts.”
Tehran had already issued several warnings in the words of its Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, who has been meeting since the end of last week with its regional allies: Syria, Lebanon, Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad.
The group forms what Iran calls an “Axis of Resistance” and is primarily aimed at preventing the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel, whose existence Israel does not recognize, and its Arab neighbors. Among major powers, Russia and, to a lesser extent, China are among the group’s biggest supporters.
This Monday, Putin also spoke on the phone with Syrian dictator Bashar alAssad, before discussing the need for a ceasefire with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Egyptian dictator Abdul Fattah alSisi and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas a Hamas rival.
In 2015, the Kremlin intervened in the Syrian civil war, setting up an expeditionary air force that remains there today to rescue its ally. Putin wants this presence to be maintained, but he would have a lot to lose in a regional war, as he might have to intervene to some extent while he is fully focused on his invasion of Ukraine. It would be good business to act as an intermediary.
For Syria, whose airports were attacked by Israel as a warning not to supply weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas, open conflict would be terrible as the country is still torn by warring factions and seeks normalization.
Iran doesn’t care either, unless there is a secret plan to destroy Israel that goes beyond rhetoric to a general conflict. The country’s economic situation is unstable and an existential war could end up with Tel Aviv reminding the world that it has 90 nuclear warheads.
For this reason, for example, Tehran funds an estimated R$3.5 billion annually for Hezbollah and regional groups such as Hamas. However, the scale of the Palestinian group’s terrorist attack suggests that its leadership is seeking precisely that response, aware that Israel’s retaliation against the Gaza Strip it controls would also be brutal.
In the midst of all this, there are civilians. In Lebanon the situation is even more complex, as Hezbollah is a major political actor and has territorial dominance in the south of the country, where a UN force, Unifil, has operated since 1978.
The current border with Israel, the Blue Line, was erected in 2000 to mark the limit of withdrawal from Tel Aviv, which invaded its neighboring country in 1982 behind the Palestinian leadership exiled there, thereby embroiling itself in a terrible civil war that ends only eight years later.
However, peace did not materialize due to sectarian divisions in Lebanon and incidents such as the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, which ended in a draw. The group left the country with a strong military reputation and now has an estimated arsenal of up to 150,000 missiles, making its eventual entry into the current war a nightmare for the IDF (Israel Defense Forces).
But Lebanon’s precarious economic situation also theoretically disregards Hezbollah’s interest, despite the previous exchange of fire to position itself. The country’s Prime Minister Najib Mitaki told Al Jazeera on Monday: “We are in the eye of the storm, no one can predict what will happen.”
“The government continues its internal and external contacts to maintain calm and keep Lebanon away from the consequences of the Gaza war,” he said, who met with the Iranian Foreign Minister on Friday (13).
As evidence of the complexity of regional loyalties, the Lebanese army found and confiscated 20 operational rocket launchers in the south of the country this Monday, but they did not come from Hezbollah, but from Hamas fighters operating in the region.
In the south, the Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt remained closed. Egyptian authorities even told Portal that Israel, Egypt and the United States had agreed on a ceasefire in the southern region of the Palestinian territory for the withdrawal of foreigners through the Rafah border crossing.
However, Tel Aviv denied that a ceasefire was in the works. “There is currently no ceasefire or humanitarian assistance in Gaza in return for the departure of foreigners,” reads an excerpt from an Israeli government statement. The Rafah border crossing is located on the border between Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and Gaza.