More recently, for the first time, large numbers of militiamen fighting in Gaza – thousands – were released home. This was made possible by a change in military tactics, which Galant confirmed today: More targeted actions are now being taken in the north of the Gaza Strip. In concrete terms, this mainly means commando operations, targeted airstrikes against Hamas positions and the destruction of tunnels – rather than a broad military presence with tanks and other heavy equipment. In the south, however, Hamas leadership continues to be persecuted.
At the same time, the army began to shift its attention further north and towards the threat posed by pro-Iranian Hezbollah. The assassination of Saleh al-Aruri, a senior member of the Hamas Politburo, on Tuesday in the middle of a neighborhood in the Lebanese capital Beirut controlled by the Hezbollah terrorist group was the first attack of its kind against Hamas officials outside Gaza. and the West Bank.
Perseverance in the hunt for those responsible
Although Israel has a long tradition of not officially recognizing this, all signs point to the country's military and intelligence services being behind the murder of Aruri, who was buried in the Shatila refugee camp on Thursday.
Shortly after the Hamas attack, which left around 1,200 people dead and hundreds kidnapped, the Israeli government announced that it would hold all those responsible for Hamas accountable. Similar to the attack on the Israeli team during the Munich Olympic Games in September 1973, they could remain in the Mossad's sights for decades.
First steps towards the return of resettled people
The consequences for general developments in the Middle East will probably be more immediate: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has announced a sudden reaction – but at least in Israel, the predominant assessment among experts is that Hezbollah wants to avoid an escalation of the current exchanges daily hits. What is clear is that Hezbollah will attempt a surprise attack on Israel, whether on the border or elsewhere, now or later.
picturedesk.com/Jalaa Marey Israeli tank on the border with Lebanon
The fact that tens of thousands of Israelis living on the border were deported for months for security reasons was and already is a huge success for Nasrallah. This is exactly what Israel apparently wants to slowly change. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted on a “fundamental change” on Thursday.
Army chief Herzi Halevi announced on Wednesday a comprehensive plan to protect cities near the border and a major increase in military presence for at least a year. Border towns are within Hezbollah's firing range and every civilian movement can often be observed by the militants with the naked eye. In a conversation with American mediator Amos Hochstein, Galant emphasized that Israel preferred a diplomatic solution. However, Galant made it clear that he doubts such a deal will happen.
Israel sees itself as a bulwark against Iran
From Israel's perspective, it is becoming increasingly clear to Western allies the extent to which aggression against Israel is being controlled by its archenemy, Iran. Tehran has activated all of its allies – Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. And Iranian warnings or threats would always be directed jointly against the US and Israel. This is intended to place Israel's confrontation with Hamas and the Palestinians as a whole in a broader context that will be received with greater understanding in Europe and the USA. Israel increasingly presents itself as a bulwark for the West – and Arab states – against the Islamic threat.
ORF analyzes of Beirut and Tel Aviv
ORF correspondent Karim El-Gawhary reports from Beirut and Tim Cupal reports from Tel Aviv. El-Gawahry talks about Hezbollah, which threatens to retaliate after the attack in Lebanon, and Cupal talks about the new source of conflict for Israel.
“Far” from achieving the objective
Former Israeli Deputy Security Advisor Chuck Freilich also emphasized in a debate at the Israeli think tank Institute for National Security (INSS) that they are “far” from calling for the destruction of Hamas or the return of all hostages – more than 130 are still in the hands of Hamas. Also due to pressure from the US government, the army is now in the process of moving into “phase three”.
No “day-after” strategy
At the same time, the Israeli government has not yet been able to agree on how it envisions the “day after” – after hostilities have largely ceased. So far, the government has vehemently rejected the US-backed option of a reformed Palestinian Authority.
After weeks of reluctance and continued resistance from Prime Minister Netanyahu, Galant publicly launched the “day after” debate on Thursday night. Israel will not have a civilian presence in Gaza, the administration will be taken over by “Palestinian bodies” – although without saying whether this refers to the Palestinian Authority. The right-wing extremist parts of the coalition, which demand a permanent occupation and settlements in Gaza, including the expulsion of Palestinians, immediately sharply criticized Galant.
Time to make a decision is running out
Time is running out for the Israeli government: Israel needs a coordinated plan with the US for the future. However, it is difficult to imagine an agreement in the coalition. It also seems unthinkable that Netanyahu would expel the two right-wing extremist parties. He now depends on them more than on any other party in his long career.
US pressure will increase significantly in the coming weeks due to the upcoming election campaign in the country – US President Joe Biden does not want the Gaza war to become a major issue. It is no coincidence that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will arrive again for talks on Friday. What is particularly dramatic is that all these circumstances make the prospects of an agreement to bring back the more than 130 hostages increasingly remote.