Experts who follow the history of the conflict believe that the extremist group is trying to disrupt Israel’s diplomatic relations
Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on Saturday (October 7, 2023) was interpreted as an attempt by the group to thwart the agreements Israel has reached with the Arab world in recent years. The assessment is made by experts who follow the history of the conflict between Israel and Palestine.
Since 2020, Israel has signed the socalled Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan and is seeking to conclude agreements with Saudi Arabia through the mediation of the United States. In doing so, Israel hoped to stabilize relations with Arab countries and isolate its biggest rival: Iran, a historic ally of Hamas.
Political scientist and professor of international relations Maurício Santoro, an associate at the Center for PoliticalStrategic Studies of the Navy, analyzes that the attempt to thwart these agreements explains Hamas’ attack. In addition, the expert said, the offensive served to send a message to the Israeli people and was a repeat of the surprise attack 50 years ago when the Yom Kippur War broke out.
“For the Israelis, this is a very strong political message, that 50 years ago they were surprised once and now they have been surprised again, that they will never be safe, that they will always be at risk of another attack like this,” he said Santoro. The Hamas attack occurred the day after the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War.
In addition to the political message, Israel’s agreements with the Arabs, which seek to normalize diplomatic relations in the Middle East, also motivated the attack.
“The signing of these agreements changes the strategic scenarios of the region. “Israel would have a more solid base among Arab countries to confront its fiercest opponent, Iran. Therefore, a scenario in which Israel makes an agreement with Arab countries and isolates Iran would be terrible for Hamas,” he said.
BrazilIsrael Institute advisor Karina Stange Caladrin, who also works as a researcher at the Institute of International Relations at the University of São Paulo, explained that Hamas’s ultimate goal is the end of the State of Israel and that this is therefore the case Agreements between Arabs and Israelis have come under attack in recent years.
“Hamas saw this [Acordos de Abraão] a weakening of the Palestinian cause and a loss of allies. Hamas condemned the agreements. “So the attack is to demand Arab support for the Palestinian issue,” he stressed.
Karina Caladrin added that Hamas is attacking knowing that Israel will retaliate and hopes to use the images to raise awareness in the international community and in particular the Arab world. “The more Palestinians die, the more Hamas wins in its struggle, because the image that will emerge on the international stage is the suffering of the Palestinians.” It would not be welcome for the Arab states if they signed these agreements with Israel would.”
The Palestinian state
Robson Valdez, doctor of international strategic studies at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, assessed that China’s agreements in the Middle East, like the Abraham Accords, push for more political stability in the region through investments in the socalled Silk Road. which the Hamas attack ultimately destabilizes. The Silk Road is a Chinese government project for economic integration with the world.
“The conflict is destabilizing all these accommodation plans, and what we’re seeing now is actually the opposite.” It’s an attempt by these actors [China, Arábia Saudita] to reaffirm that it is essential that Palestine has a sovereign state that lives harmoniously with the State of Israel. “We are aware that attempts are being made to strengthen this consensus, which is a consensus of the international community,” he said.
Valdez said that the Palestinians were trying to build a state based on international law with the support of other countries, “but that, in the face of military asymmetry, Israel is systematically advancing into all Palestinian territories, contrary to a series of measures and resolutions.”
The expert believes that this situation strengthens Hamas’ position. “Many believe that only Hamas would be able to establish a state through this resistance movement because the negotiation options have already been exhausted,” he explained.
For researcher Maurício Santoro, Hamas must have imagined that Israeli agreements with the Arabs could consolidate Israeli occupation of areas claimed by the Palestinians.
“These agreements would likely result in Hamas being isolated and left out of these governments that want to do good business and build friendly relations with the Israelis,” he said.
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Israeli settlements
While Israel made progress in negotiations with Arab states, relations with the Palestinians deteriorated. “What we have seen in recent years is a deterioration in Israel’s relations with the Palestinian Authority, motivated, among other things, by the expansion of settlements in both Jordan and East Jerusalem, and particularly now under the Netanyahu government, these relations have deteriorated deteriorated.” “It has become dilapidated. Low point,” explained Maurício Santoro.
BrazilIsrael Institute consultant Karina Caladrin agrees that Israeli settlement construction is fueling the current conflict, but adds that the international community, including Arab countries, is responsible for the conflict.
“There is obviously a direct responsibility on Israel’s part for maintaining the conflict, for the treatment of the Palestinians, for the settlements, but there is also complete inaction on the part of international powers and Arab countries,” he said.
For them, the creation of the Palestinian state is the way out of the crisis, but this solution seems to be becoming more and more distant, even if a new government in Israel that is more favorable to the Palestinians should emerge. “As long as Hamas exists as a militarized group financed by Iran, there is no possibility of creating a peace scenario because it will not accept two states.”
With information from Agência Brasil.