One wonders why insist on it? Why desperately try to stop Donald Trump's accelerating march to the Republican Party nomination? We can't say that Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis – pardon the paradox – emerged victorious from their failure in Iowa.
Why try to stop Trump? Possibly because he is a liar, a provocateur who openly flirts with racism and threatens American democracy as we know it.
And yet I have no doubt that the next presidential election will pit Joe Biden against Donald Trump. Unless extraordinary events occur: the death or physical incapacity of one of the two candidates, or Donald Trump's prison sentence in one of the four criminal cases he could face… but that won't happen.
TRUMP, UNBEATABLE
Some believe Trump could be defeated in the race for the Republican nomination. It could have started in Iowa, but he received every other vote in those caucuses and twice as many votes as his two primary opponents combined. So let's forget about Iowa.
The shot was therefore directed towards New Hampshire, next Tuesday's election meeting, a meeting that Nikki Haley cannot miss.
First, because the Republican voters of the “Granite State” are more moderate than those of Iowa, more in line with the pre-Trump Republican Party, which, for example, unlike Donald Trump, supported an active presence of the United States in the world, “America First” ideology .
Voters who are registered as independents can also vote in this Republican primary, voters certainly even more moderate than Republican voters who take responsibility.
NEW HAMPSHIRE, NOT EASIER
Nikki Haley can present herself as an alternative to Donald Trump, but polls show that the rise remains steep: between fourteen and seventeen points behind the former president.
However, Donald Trump is certainly a little wary of Nikki Haley, hearing her insult him – he nicknames her “Bird Brain” – and downplaying the work she did for him during his presidency, when she was UN ambassador did: he now claims that she was a bad negotiator. To hell with his claims that he had gathered an excellent team around him back then… we're not on the point of inconsistency.
HOPE IN THE TWIST OF THE NUMBERS
Earlier this week I read the analysis by Andrew Smith, director of the poll center at the University of New Hampshire, who estimates that Haley could win if she manages to get more than 30% of the vote while Trump does If he gets more than 50%, one might conclude that he faces “serious competition within the Republican Party.” He at 50, she at 30 and she would be the winner?
Perhaps we should look to the national polls that show the former president with a lead of more than 55 points over his rivals in the race to represent the Republican Party in the presidential election.
We can play around with the numbers all we want, but the Republicans will be represented in the presidential election by Donald Trump, that seems inevitable to me. Unless of course…
Photo AFP
NEW HAMPSHIRE
16-17 January: Suffolk University/Boston Globe
- Trump 50% / Haley 36% (Trump +14)
January 16: Saint Anselm College
- Trump 52% / Haley 38% (Trump +14)
8th–10th January: Emerson College/WHDH-TV
- Trump 44% / Haley 28% (Trump +16)
8th–9th January: Saint Anselm College
- Trump 45% / Haley 31% (Trump +14)
On the greatness of the United States
16-17 January: The Messenger/Harris
- Trump 72% / Haley 13% (Trump +59)
14th-16th January: Economist/YouGov
- Trump 68% / DeSantis 10% (Trump +58)
10th-12th January: CBS News
- Trump 69% / DeSantis 14% (Trump +55)
11th–13th January: Morning consultation
- Trump 69% / Haley 12% (Trump +57)