It’s deceptively quiet amid the spectacular landscape of northern Israel, where the mountains give way to views of Lebanon and Syria. At this time of year, the area is usually full of the last of the Jewish high holiday tourists, taking advantage of the cooler weather to hike and apple pick.
Instead, Israel’s Defense Ministry on Monday issued an unprecedented order for residents of 28 villages and kibbutzim within 2 km (1.25 miles) of the blue line that separates the country from Lebanon to evacuate south. The state is preparing for the possible outbreak of hostilities with Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese militia backed by Iran, at the same time as the new war with Hamas in the blockaded Gaza Strip.
The northern front, like the southern front before it, is emptying after repeated rocket and rocket attacks and border skirmishes in recent days with Hezbollah and Palestinian factions active in Lebanon. The mood throughout Israel is hectic, and trust in the army and the state has plummeted.
For the communities here, the evacuation order is not just about history repeating itself or the occasional barrage of rockets that trigger air raid sirens. It’s also frightening because of its novelty. The likelihood of escalation with Hezbollah, Palestinian factions in the occupied West Bank – or even a head-on collision with Iran after years of “shadow war” across the region – is higher than ever.
Joe Biden’s decision to send a second aircraft carrier group to the eastern Mediterranean this week to bolster Israel’s defenses and deter “any state or non-state actor” from interfering in the fight essentially throws the gauntlet at Tehran and much of the Israeli media thrown down is enthusiastic about launching a “pre-emptive attack” on Hezbollah.
“I don’t think it’s a question of when the war will come here. I think it’s already here,” said Emmanuela Kaplan, 34, from Kibbutz Bar Am, playing with her six-month-old baby in a makeshift playroom in the basement of their makeshift home: a hotel in Tiberias, a tourist center on the Sea of Galilee. Her husband, an army reservist, was called up like 300,000 other Israelis and is now stationed in the south.
More than 1,300 people were killed on October 7 after the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched the boldest attack in its history. Their forces breached the security fence enclosing Gaza’s 2.3 million residents before murderously cutting their way through dozens of Israeli towns and kibbutzim, seizing 199 hostages and bringing them back to Gaza.
In response, Israel launched its largest bombing campaign in the besieged area, killing at least 2,800 Palestinians and ordering more than a million people to leave their homes in the northern half of the strip despite having no safe place to go could. On Monday, the only civilian border crossing into Egypt’s Sinai Desert remained closed, despite reports that Cairo and international mediators had reached an agreement to allow foreigners and dual nationals to escape the war and send urgently needed aid to Gaza.
Israel has not fought a two-front war since the surprise attack on Yom Kippur by Syria from the north and Egypt from the south 50 years ago this month. Both Hezbollah and Israel have been careful to avoid a return to the bloody summer war of 2006 that left much of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, in ruins.
But even before the fifth round of war in Gaza since Hamas seized control of the strip in 2007 erupted last week, tensions along the Blue Line, the United Nations-controlled border between Israel and Lebanon, were at their highest point in the summer for years.
Metula, Israel’s northernmost city, was quiet on Monday afternoon; Much of the city had already packed their belongings and pets into cars to stay with family or in government-sponsored hotels out of the range of short-range missile fire. A senior Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reservist at the main gate was nervous after two reports of ground infiltrations by either Hezbollah or Palestinian factions.
At the main bus station in Qiryat Shemona, 6 miles (9 km) south of the blue line, a few civilians took large suitcases and boarded buses to Tiberias, and soldiers waited for transport north. There is no evacuation order for the city, but the streets were deserted except for soldiers at checkpoints and military vehicles.
Israeli soldiers build defenses in Metula. Photo: Xinhua/ShutterstockOnly one place in the bus terminal was open: a burger joint where half a dozen locals had come for lunch and gallows humor. The night before there had been a firefight between suspected Hezbollah militants and IDF troops visible from the western side of the city, and the group discussed what might happen next.
“We are not afraid of missiles; We are afraid of ground fighting. I’ve never seen anything like that,” said Inbal Ben Shitrit, 26. “If Hezbollah comes, it will be much worse than Hamas… Hamas can send 1,000 men, Hezbollah can send 10,000.” They have better weapons and more support from them Iran.”
Vineyards and apple and cherry orchards have flourished across most of the upper Galilee since the 2006 war, but some places still bear the scars of the fighting.
In southern Lebanon, a Hezbollah stronghold, the legacy of the war is more evident. Today, the country of 6 million people, under the de facto control of the Islamist group, is in a serious financial crisis; Its population is unable to bear the brunt of another war. According to Michael Young, a Beirut-based analyst at the Carnegie Middle East Center, it is telling that most of the launches toward Israel so far have come from Sunni and Christian-majority areas; It appears that Hezbollah is not yet ready to face a backlash from its Shiite base.
“It’s not like when we had to evacuate. Before we could keep the business running. It wasn’t that intense,” said Denise Lili Gever, a 62-year-old originally from London. After making Bar Am her home for the past 25 years, she now also lives in a hotel in Tiberias.
“I can’t imagine ever going home now. There are people in the north who want to do to me what they did to the people in the south. I knew we had enemies, but I didn’t think they would do something like that.”