Alessandro Fontana, chief economist of this organization, which brings together more than 140,000 companies, said in a statement published by La Repubblica newspaper that “next year we expect stagnation, it doesn’t matter if growth is 0.1 percent or 0.2 percent amounts to.”
The analysis, prepared by the study center Confindustria, shows that the gross domestic product (GDP), “which recorded positive momentum in the first half of 2022, undergoes a downward revision between the end of the year and the beginning of 2023, but then slowly recovers.”
However, “there is a strong downward revision for 2023 compared to the April scenario (-1.6 points), leading to stagnation on average for the year,” adds the report presented this Saturday entitled “The Italian economy still withstands uncertainty and Shock?
The document ensures that “the introduction of a gas price cap could keep Italian GDP from zero growth in 2023, if not negative in the event of a drastic disruption in Russian imports”.
In their forecast, researchers at the Italian Business Association outline a scenario characterized by a dangerous combination of stagnation and inflation.
Consumer prices rose rapidly in 2022, reaching an 8.9 percent annual increase in September, a level not seen since the 1980s, largely due to high energy prices, which rose 44.5 percent a year increased, indicate.
Inflation, these experts say, will reach 7.5 percent in 2022 and will partially recede next year, “but at levels that are still double the central bank’s target,” of 2.0 percent, and in 2023 they see one Price ahead growth of 4.5 percent per year.
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