Atmosphere during Giorgia Meloni’s rally in Cagliari to launch her campaign for the next Cagliari general elections on September 02, 2022 in Cagliari, Italy. Italians go to the polls for the September 25, 2022 general election.
Emanuele Perrone | News from Getty Images | Getty Images
Italy’s voters will go to the polls on Sunday for snap general elections that are likely to see a government led by a far-right party come to power in a massive political shift for a country already grappling with ongoing economic and political instability.
Polls before September 9 (when a blackout period began) showed that a right-wing coalition could easily win a majority of seats in the slimmed-down lower and upper houses of parliament.
The coalition is led by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) and includes three other right-wing parties: the Lega led by Matteo Salvini, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and a smaller coalition partner, Noi Moderati.
The Brothers of Italy party stands out from the crowd and is expected to receive the largest share of the vote for any single party. According to poll aggregator Politiche 2022, she has garnered nearly 25% of the vote, well ahead of her closest right-wing ally Lega, who are expected to garner around 12% of the vote.
Giorgia Meloni, leader of right-wing Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) party, holds a giant Italian national flag during a political rally February 24, 2018 in Milan, Italy.
Emanuele Cremaschi | Getty Images
On the centre-left, the Democratic Party, led by former Prime Minister Enrico Letta with a gain of around 21%, and its coalition partners (Alliance of the Greens and Left, More Europe and Civic Engagement) are all expected to grow in the very low single digits Poll.
The snap elections follow Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s resignation in July after he failed to rally a recalcitrant political coalition behind his economic policies.
Who are the “Brothers of Italy”?
An election victory for the Fratelli d’Italia could result in the party leader Giorgia Meloni becoming Italy’s first female prime minister. She would also be the first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini came to power in Italy a hundred years ago.
Carlo Ciccioli, president of Fratelli d’Italia in the eastern Italian region of Le Marche, told CNBC that the party’s meteoric rise in popularity “has spread to the rest of Italy” and that the party is ready to govern.
“Right now we’re probably the biggest party in the country – which can only be confirmed by Sunday’s vote, not any polls. Why do I think Fratelli d’Italia will make it? Because our leadership is one of substance. Giorgia Meloni is both culturally and politically prepared,” he told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche.
The Fratelli d’Italia party was founded in 2012 but has its roots in Italy’s 20th-century neo-fascist movement, which emerged after the death of fascist leader Mussolini in 1945.
After several iterations, a group including Giorgia Meloni split from Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (or PdL) party to form Fratelli d’Italia. Its name refers to the first words of the Italian national anthem.
The party has since grown in popularity and has now overtaken the populist Lega party after addressing sections of the public concerned about immigration (Italy is the destination of many migrant boats crossing the Mediterranean), the country’s relationship with the EU and the economy.
Analysts say another reason for the party’s popularity is its decision not to participate in Draghi’s latest broad-based coalition. This distinguished Meloni “as an outsider within the political system and gained more media visibility as the only opposition figure,” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of the Teneo risk consultancy, in a recent statement.
roots and politics
In terms of politics, Fratelli d’Italia has often been described as “neo-Fascist” or “post-Fascist”, with her politics reflecting the nationalist, nativist and anti-immigrant attitudes of Fascist-era Italy. For her part, however, Meloni claims to have rid the party of fascist elements, saying in the summer Italy’s right-wing had “left fascism to history for decades”.
Still, its policies are socially conservative, to say the least, as the party opposes gay marriage and promotes traditional “family values,” with Meloni saying in 2019 its mission is to defend “God, homeland, and family.”
As for Europe, Fratelli d’Italia have reversed their opposition to the euro but are committed to reforming the EU to make it less bureaucratic and less influential in domestic politics. His plan is summed up in one of his slogans: “A Europe that does less but does better”.
On the economic front, it has shifted to the centre-right coalition’s position that the next government should cut sales taxes on certain goods to ease the cost-of-living crisis and said Italy should realign its Covid recovery fund with the EU negotiate.
Fratelli d’Italia was pro-NATO and pro-Ukraine and supports sanctions against Russia, in contrast to the Lega, which is ambivalent about these measures.
However, the party has also been friendly towards one of the EU’s main opponents, Hungary’s President Viktor Orban, and backed the strongman leader after a European Parliament resolution ruled that Hungary could no longer be defined as a democracy.
Center-left politicians fear relations with the rest of Europe would change under a government led by Meloni. Enrico Letta, the leader of the Democratic Party, told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick that Italy had two options when it came to Europe – stay in the top echelons of business and governance or “relegate”.
“[The] The first option is to keep our position in the “premier league”. First League means Brussels and Germany, France, Spain, the big European countries, the founders, like us.[The]second option is relegation to the second division with Poland and Hungary and deciding to stay with them against Brussels, against Berlin, against Paris and Madrid,” he said during the Ambrosetti economic forum in early September.
“I think it would be catastrophic for Italy to opt for the second division,” he said.
Meloni has been described by some as something of a political chameleon, with analysts noting changes in her political position over time.
“The question is which Meloni will lead the government: the one who praised Hungary’s Viktor Orban or the one who supported Mario Draghi’s anti-Russian stance?” Teneo’s Wolfango Piccoli said in a note earlier in September.
“The sovereignist who called for Italy’s exit from the euro, or the reassuring leader who took a more conventional line towards Europe during the election campaign? The populist who promoted the idea of a naval blockade in the Mediterranean to stop the illegal influx of immigrants… or the more responsible conservative politician who has been talking about a European solution to the problem?” he said.
Being Italy (a country that has notoriously had 69 governments since World War II), some post-vote instability and turbulence is expected, not least as divisions between the FdI, Lega and Forza Italia are likely to emerge form the legal alliance.
“Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi will be difficult coalition partners, desperate after a (probable) election-day defeat to regain visibility by emphasizing political differences, including on issues like fiscal discipline, pensions and Russia sanctions. Political differences and personal rivalries will arise shortly after the vote came to the fore, causing turmoil and undermining the effectiveness of the new executive branch,” Piccoli added.