Who will replace Mario Draghi at the helm of Italy? Two months after another political crisis forced the centrist to resign, Italy’s future head of government has yet to be appointed in snap general elections on Sunday 25 September. For the first time, the country could be led by a prime minister: Giorgia Meloni, chairman of the far-right Fratelli D’Italia party.
Franceinfo explains why you should be interested in these elections which, as is so often the case in Italy, are full of promise.
Because this election takes place after four years of political crises
“Instability in Italy is the rule.” This is how Sofia Ventura, professor of political science at the University of Bologna, explains the succession of crises that have rocked Italian political life since the 2018 general elections. In four years, the country has already seen three different executives, supported by three different majorities in parliament: the two governments led by Giuseppe Conte, leader of the anti-system Mouvement 5 Etoiles (M5S) party, then the grand coalition of Mario Draghi .
This political instability is not new. The complex Italian electoral system naturally prevents the formation of a large majority in parliament, Les Echos explain. On September 25, voters are therefore called upon to nominate 200 senators and 400 MPs under “a mixed system combining a proportional election by region for two-thirds and a single-pass, one-member system for the remaining third.” Obviously, coalitions are almost inevitable. “Up until the late 1990s, there were frequent changes of government in Italy, but several strong political parties with a broad social base were able to form a majority,” stresses Sofia Ventura when asked by franceinfo.
“With the weakening and fragmentation of parties, coupled with the emergence of a sense of popular distrust of politics, parliamentary majorities are born and die in the blink of an eye.”
Sofia Ventura, political scientist at the University of Bologna
at franceinfo
Called on by President Sergio Mattarella in 2021 to end the third political crisis in three years, centrist Mario Draghi has brought Italy a relative period of calm. For a year and a half, the former head of the European Central Bank led a government supported by a coalition of all the parties elected to parliament except one, the nationalist movement Fratelli d’Italia.
However, the Draghi government has succumbed to “a political game,” analyzes Sofia Ventura. “At the end of July, the M5S, the right-wing party Forza Italia and a far-right party, La Ligue, refused to give their trust to the government,” she explains. “Their goal was to differentiate themselves from the executive branch and to seize what they saw as an opportunity to strengthen their constituency,” says Jean-Pierre Darnis, professor at Luiss University in Rome and director of the master’s program in Franco-Italian Relations Students of the University of Côte d’Azur. The day after that vote, the prime minister submitted his resignation to the president, who dissolved parliament and called early general elections.
Because a far-right candidate could lead Italy
A few days before the election, the polls announce the winner of the right-wing coalition of Forza Italia, Silvio Berlusconi’s party, La Ligue, led by Matteo Salvini, and Fratelli d’Italia, the far-right formation of Giorgia Meloni. In mid-August, this coalition garnered around 45% of the voting intentions versus 30% for the centre-left led by Enrico Letta’s Democratic Party. According to the Italian mixed electoral system, this would mean that 60 percent of the deputies in the new legislature would come from the right-wing coalition, specifies Le Figaro.
According to opinion polls, Giorgia Meloni would be the big winner in the parliamentary elections. His party, Fratelli d’Italia, is credited with 23-26% of the vote, compared to just 4% of the vote in the previous 2018 general election. which scored 34% in the 2019 European elections, underlines Sofia Ventura. But since Matteo Salvini decided to leave the governing coalition with the M5S in 2019, his party has not stopped the decline in the polls, and that is Meloni benefits.”
The leader of the Fratelli d’Italia, Giorgia Meloni, during a rally for Italy’s general elections August 23, 2022 in Ancona. (VINCENZO PINTO / AFP)
Indeed, Giorgia Meloni enjoys an advantage: “to have remained in opposition even when all the other parties supported Mario Draghi’s grand coalition,” stresses Jean-Pierre Darnis. “We are in an Italian version of degagism: in the face of short political cycles and the multiplication of crises, there is a premium for criticism,” explains the author of the book Les Relations between France and Italy and the renewal of the European game (L’Harmattan- Expenditure).
“A growing proportion of Italians want to give Giorgia Meloni a chance because she has never governed the country, unlike Matteo Salvini, who was interior minister and whose party has joined two coalitions in recent years.”
Jean-Pierre Darnis, Italy specialist
at franceinfo
The far-right leader, who is often compared to Marine Le Pen, has also “changed her language” in recent months, adds Alban Mikoczy, correspondent for France Télévisions in Rome. “She defends a very conservative vision with God, family and fatherland as core values,” he explains. She carries an anti-immigration agenda, but at the same time distances herself from the positive discourse she previously had on Mussolini and is less Eurosceptic.” The goal of this strategy, according to Sofia Ventura, “Giorgia Meloni wants to present herself as a trustworthy, less radical politician capable of leading the country.”
Because these elections will have consequences for the rest of the EU
Mario Draghi’s successor is of interest beyond the Italian borders. “The current context of international and national crises (the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the economic and climate crisis, etc.) requires the implementation of reforms in Italy,” stresses Jean-Pierre Darnis.
“These reforms need to be negotiated with the European Union and require a solid and large majority in Parliament. The grand coalition that supported Draghi has responded to these demands. A more political coalition could face difficulties in governing.”
Jean-Pierre Darnis, Italy specialist
at franceinfo
The new executive’s ability to govern (and reform) is all the more important given that Italy must receive a substantial part of the €750 billion European recovery plan decided in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis. In total, Brussels has given Rome €68.9 billion in aid and €122.6 billion in subsidized loans, Le Monde notes. But European solidarity is conditional: the reform of the judiciary (one of the slowest in Europe), public procurement and civil services.
There are fears in Brussels that this new change of government will prevent the measures from being successful and will weaken both the euro zone and European construction. “Mario Draghi’s ability to reform the Italian state and use European funds to revitalize the economy was seen, particularly in Berlin, as a test of the validity of this European solidarity,” analyzes Le Monde.
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi during a European Council meeting in Brussels, Belgium, June 26, 2022. (NICOLAS ECONOMOU / NURPHOTO / AFP)
In general, the prospect of having a Eurosceptic party at the helm of one of the EU’s founding countries is not insignificant. “Giorgia Meloni is no longer talking about leaving the Union, but she is defending a sovereign vision of Europe, close to that of Hungary or Poland,” notes Sofia Ventura, professor of political science at the University of Bologna. His policies could jeopardize Italy’s relations with the EU, the European construction plan, future economic agreements or European construction as it is being carried out today.”
Because the results are far from a foregone conclusion
Even if victory for the Fratelli d’Italia at the end of the general election seems the most likely scenario, nothing in the constitution obliges the president to appoint Giorgia Meloni as head of government. “As soon as the results are known, he will be in touch with the leaders of each party to ask who they support. It is possible that another name will appear in this exchange,” Sofia Ventura points out.
“On the morning of September 26, the parties will start negotiations on the Prime Minister’s name. The challenge for Giorgia Meloni is not to give up victory if her party wins.”
Alban Mikoczy, correspondent for France Télévisions in Rome
at franceinfo
However, the popularity of the Fratelli D’Italia boss seems to give him a head start. “With some voters there is a ‘Meloni effect’, an addiction to his personality, which the other parties have taken note of,” argues Jean-Pierre Darnis.
Even if Giorgia Meloni does indeed take over as chair of the executive, “it’s difficult to say how long his government would last, especially since there’s competition between the Liga and the Fratelli d’Italia,” added Sofia Ventura. According to the Italian political scientist, “rumors” are already circulating about the danger that new alliances could form between right-wing and center parties. “A Meloni government, like others before it, could therefore have a short life.”