Is the focus on “liberating the Donbass” primarily tactical? Russian experts assess how strong Russia is and when the war will end.
According to official information, the Russian army intends to focus on the “liberation” of the Donbass region in the east of the country in future actions in Ukraine. So Putin is calling for a withdrawal?
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Is the focus on “Liberation of Donbass” primarily tactical?
Russia expert Dr. Alexandre Dubovy,says, on the contrary, that the situation in Russia is not as bad as it seems. “The Donbass region is the most heavily defended region in Ukraine. Up to a third of all Ukrainian armed forces are located there. Russia is currently trying to isolate and surround Kiev’s combat units. military victory and strengthen its negotiating position . Russia has also conquered significant parts of the Cherson and Zaporizhia regions.”
Surely there is more to it than mere rhetoric, it also says Marcus Keupp, military economist and professor at the Military Academy (Milak) at ETH Zurich. “The Russian army is not making progress on many fronts. If Russia cannot show military success soon, it will be difficult for Putin. The city of Mariupol, for example, does not surrender. Putin wants to present results to the people.”
How will Ukraine react?
Marcus Keupp says the Ukrainians must withdraw forces to hold the front. “In this way, Russia can weaken other parts of Ukraine. Ukrainians need to consider which areas are important to them.”
From today’s perspective, Ukraine is unlikely to renounce the Donbass, says Dr Alexandre Dubovy. “That is the reason why Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced that he would like to have all the results of the negotiations confirmed in a referendum. “Above all, Ukraine lacks heavy weapons. Russia announced that it would attack the supply of weapons to Ukraine”.
How strong is Russia?
Alexandre Dubovy:“Major offensive operations are also likely in April. It is quite possible that Russia will try to conquer the entire Black Sea coast. Moscow could also force Ukraine to capitulate through targeted attacks against civilians. At the moment, there are no signs of that the Kremlin is significantly diverted from the initial demands is ready. Moscow can replace military losses more easily than Ukraine.”
How realistic is the “liberation” of Donbass?
Marcus Keupp: “The Russian army must attack with large forces if it wants to capture Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. These neighboring regions are the pieces of the puzzle that Putin is still missing.”
How long could the war last?
Alexandre Dubovy: “I’m counting on a few more weeks. Several months are quite unlikely. The current war of attrition will be difficult for both sides to sustain for long. May 9 is a very important holiday in Russia. Perhaps Putin will then declare an end to the war.”
Navigation account 20 minutes, time rfi26.03.2022, 07:47| Act: 03/26/2022, 07:48