Aid and weapons from the USA are not arriving, Ukraine is in trouble and is experiencing one of the most complex moments in the war against Russia that began two years ago.
Avdiivka and the street full of corpses
Kiev's forces retreated from Avdiivka, the eastern city captured by Russian soldiers in an eerie scenario. This is also described in a post that a soldier – Viktor Biliak – published on Instagram: “The road to Avdiivka is covered with corpses of Ukrainian soldiers,” he wrote, describing the retreat as “nothing to see, like blind cats who “be guided by a drone under artillery fire.” The story also describes the dramatic farewell to the wounded who were not evacuated and in many cases, as families learned from videos on Russian profiles posted on social media, were killed.
“The situation at the front is extremely difficult in several areas, especially where the Russian armed forces have concentrated most of their reserves. They are taking advantage of delays in military aid to Ukraine,” says Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who visited the military in the Kharkiv region in the last few hours. “We are working with allies to resume and continue assistance while strengthening the strength of our defense industry,” he added.
“Now we will watch how the Russian troops, which have been claiming control of Avdiivka for two days, will reorganize,” Eastern Group of Ukrainian Armed Forces spokeswoman Illia Yevlash said in statements to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty relaunch CNN .
According to Yevlash, “changes” could affect many brigades involved in the operations in Adviivka, including intelligence units, special forces, artillery, motorized infantry and paratroopers. “Normally – adds the spokesman – they need time, about a week, to reorganize and move their units and then we will observe where they start to apply pressure.”
Russia is now pushing south, Kiev is waiting for US help
Meanwhile, Russia is increasing its presence in the Zaporizhia region in southern Ukraine. On the southern front, analysts report the presence of around 50,000 men, most likely destined to make a new advance along a different line of contact.
To withstand the impact, Kiev would quickly need the weapons promised by the U.S. and blocked in Congress, where the House must vote on the $61 billion package approved by the Senate. The final green light is questionable given the Republican majority that controls the House of Representatives. The pressure on Speaker Mike Johnson does not appear to be enough to bring about a turning point, in a political context in which Donald Trump's influence on the extreme wing of the Republicans should not be overlooked.
In this regard, President Joe Biden's administration is working to send Ukraine a longer-range version of the Atacms missile system, capable of hitting 300 km away, NBC broadcaster revealed, citing two American officials. The USA has already supplied Kiev with Atacms missiles, albeit in the medium-range version. Defense sources explain that the United States has a limited inventory of longer-range Atacms and that they are likely to be sent to Kyiv only if funds are approved to replenish the stockpile.
House Republicans “are making a big mistake,” Biden saysHe intended to meet Johnson to understand “whether he had anything to say. The way they run from the Russian threat, the way they run from NATO, the way they run from ours. Commitments are shocking: I have never seen anything like this. “
The scenery on the battlefield
The red light in Washington has a number of clear effects, as the Institute for War Studies highlights. “Delays in Western aid to defend Ukraine are helping the Russians launch opportunistic operations on various sections of the front line,” says the think tank, focusing on specific areas of conflict: “1) along the inter-oblast border of Kharkiv and Luhansk towards Kupyansk and Lyman, 2) around Avdiivka, 3) near Robotyne in Zaporizhia Oblast. However, the bulletin notes that the Russians have advanced less than ten kilometers in four months and that the Ukrainians will be able to establish new defensive lines.
The lack of artillery ammunition and air defense systems prevented the Ukrainians from defending themselves against the Russian advance at Avdiivka. Furthermore, the lack of materiel and “fear of a complete stoppage of American military aid forced Ukrainian troops to distribute materiel across the entire front line, which likely encouraged the Russians to exploit the situation.”
However, the ISW emphasizes that the Ukrainian armed forces “will be able to establish new defense lines not far from Avdiivka.” And that they will likely be able to hold the new positions in the face of Russian forces that have lost many men at Avdiivka. “The Russian capture of Avdiivka after four months of intensive offensive operations shows how the Russians conduct offensive operations that do not necessarily create the conditions for major operational advantages, but nevertheless force the Ukrainians to commit men and materiel to defense,” it said Bulletin and emphasizes heavy Russian losses. Kiev claims its opponents have lost 47,000 men and 364 tanks on this front in four months, while Russian mibloggers say 16,000 Moscow soldiers were killed.
“Russian forces have not yet demonstrated the ability to make significant operational progress or conduct rapid mechanized maneuvers across large swaths of territory,” the ISW writes again, noting that the Avdiivka offensive, which began in October 2023, resulted in a Advance of less than 30% took ten kilometers.
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