Jonathan Huberdeau’s fall from grace continues with the Flames, to the point where he was benched for the entire third period on Tuesday night against the Predators. At this point, based on various statistics and scouting opinions, the chances of him returning to the prolific forward he was just two seasons ago are slim.
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Everything has been said about the last difficult campaign that Huberdeau experienced, his first in Calgary under the command of Darryl Sutter. With the move that brought him from the Panthers to the Flames, his performance dropped dramatically from 115 to 55 points. Never before has a player in the history of the NHL experienced such a radical decline in performance.
Since Sutter – who some like to call a dinosaur – left, many expected the Quebecer to bounce back. But even though the season is still very young with only 12 games played, Huberdeau is on track to collect just 41 points.
“Everything he knew cannot be erased all at once. “I think he will return to a higher caliber than last year, although he may never be the player he was in Florida,” said a practice squad recruiter. “We consulted with the Eastern NHL and who asked not to be named.”
Insightful statistics
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Statistics firm Sportlogiq examined Huberdeau’s performance this season and concluded that the forward “does not complete as many passes towards the dangerous areas of the ice and is less involved in winning the ball back for his team in the offensive zone .” .
The figures presented make this conclusion clear. Huberdeau’s game suffers more than anything else from the number of completed passes to the slot. During the 2021-2022 season with the Panthers, he completed 3.17 passes per game, which ranks fifth in the entire NHL. Last year he averaged 2.13 per game (28th) and this season the decline continues to 1.83 per game, dropping him to 46th.
In terms of passes completed in the offensive zone, the winger improved from second place (18.2 per game) to 87th place (13.1 per game) in two years.
Sportlogiq alluded to poor involvement in regaining possession of the puck in the offensive zone. He also won 1.27 one-on-ones in the offensive zone during his championship-winning 2021-2022 season. That was much better than 0.9 last season and 0.83 this fall.
Why are all these offensive indicators falling? Scouts interviewed believe “Hubby” thrived more in Florida, in a system that focused more on puck possession than forward control.
“At Florida he was on the move all the time, it was more of a puck possession style where you enter the offensive zone in a controlled manner,” said a scout for a Western team.
“Jonathan, he’s not the guy you always send in a straight line. He can keep the puck, protect it and move to create chances because he has such good hands and good vision,” analyzed another of his colleagues, this time in the East.
Sportlogiq appears to confirm this analysis by showing that Huberdeau has had the puck in the offensive zone 35 seconds per game since his time in Calgary (105th), compared to 55 seconds in his final season in Florida (14th).
Encouraging signs?
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The statistics continue to show encouraging signs. When it comes to shot attempts, Huberdeau appears to be more offensive than last year (3.5 per game compared to 2.96 last season). This creates more scoring chances (2.17 per game compared to 1.67).
“What we see from his advanced offensive stats is that it’s not what we saw from him at Florida, but it’s not a disaster,” concludes a West team scout.
With this scout, we shouldn’t think that the fact that Huberdeau was benched had any connection to his decline in offensive production.
“There’s something else in his game, whether it’s his defensive game or his competitiveness, that’s not there. We have to forget about the offensive part, which is coordinated with the rest of the team. “What happens sends a message to the rest of the team,” he says.
It’s difficult to get back on your feet
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In NHL history, of the 15 players who posted the largest drop in points from one season to the next, none returned with a performance equal to or greater than the season after. Only the great Wayne Gretzky, who went from 163 to 121 points with the Kings in 1991-92, came close two years later with another 130-point season.
This is a sign that it will be extremely difficult for Huberdeau to find a similar level of play to his dream 2021-2022 season.
“He needs a good entourage. When he finally gets out of this hole, he will feel even stronger. Probably stronger than ever. I believe in him,” mentions his compatriot from Quebec, David Perron from Detroit, who is sad from afar that his friend is being excluded.
“I saw the clip of him with his head between his two legs on the Flames bench. That did not please me. I always enjoyed my conversations with Jo. If I talked to him, I probably wouldn’t say a single word about hockey. His head must be buzzing. All he has to think about is hockey. I would take it with me to have a beer at the restaurant. We talked about everything and nothing. But if it came down to hockey, it would come from him. And I would listen to it.”
–In collaboration with Jean-François Chaumont in Detroit
The biggest point falls into the story
Jonathan Huberdeau
2021-2022: 115 points
2022-2023: 55 points
Best season next: ?
Bill Barber
1975-1976: 112 points
1976-1977: 55 points
Best season next: 89 points
Dennis Maruk
1981-1982: 136 points
1982-1983: 81 points
Best season next: 60 points
Bob MacMillan
1979-1980: 108 points
1980-1981: 61 points
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Reggie Leach
1976-1977: 91 points
1977-1978: 46 points
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Chuck Lefley
1976-1977: 85 points
1977-1978: 41 points
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Sergei Fyodorov
1996-1997: 107 points
1997-1998: 63 points
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Mats Naslund
1989-1990: 84 points
1990-1991: 41 points
Best season next: 22 points
Pete Mahovlich
1976-1977: 105 points
1977-1978: 62 points
Best season next: 66 points
Vaclav Nedomansky
1980-1981: 74 points
1981-1982: 32 points
Best season next: 40 points
Wayne Gretzky
1991-1992: 163 points
1992-1993: 121 points
Best season next: 130 points
Joe Mullen
1989-1990: 110 points
1990-1991: 69 points
Best season next: 87 points
Mike Modano
2003-2004: 85 points
2004-2005: 44 points
Best season next: 77 points
Andre Boudrias
1975-1976: 78 points
1976-1977: 38 points
Best season next: 43 points
Brian MacLellan
1985-1986: 85 points
1986-1987: 45 points
Best season next: 48 points
Bryan Trottier
1982-1983: 129 points
1983-1984: 89 points
Best season next: 111 points