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Prime Minister Fumio Kishida fired four influential Cabinet members on Thursday in a bid to save his premiership from Japan's biggest political funding scandal in more than three decades.
The purge by the increasingly unpopular prime minister is intended to shield him from the fallout from a widening illicit money investigation involving a large number of politicians from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
Analysts said the move, which could dramatically alter the LDP's balance of power that shaped postwar politics, could be successful if Kishida manages to burnish his image through bold political reforms. But if he fails to win over the public, he could quickly become a lame-duck prime minister and risk having to resign before his term as LDP leader expires in September.
The ousted ministers included Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, the government's top spokesman, and Trade Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura. Kishida also replaced a number of vice ministers and the LDP's political chief.
For the post of chief cabinet secretary, Kishida turned to former foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, who belongs to an LDP faction previously led by the prime minister. He replaced his trade minister with former justice minister Ken Saitō.
“Without the trust of the people, there is no political stability,” Kishida said on Wednesday, pledging to carry out the reforms “with a sense of crisis.”
“I will take the lead and fight to overhaul the way the Liberal Democratic Party operates to restore trust in politics,” he added.
Prosecutors are investigating allegations that LDP politicians, mostly members of the powerful faction formerly led by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, systematically failed to report about 500 million yen ($3.4 million) over a five-year period made political financing, Japanese media reported.
Some analysts said the practice of hiding political money was more than two decades old and was used to support weaker members of Abe's faction. Other factions appear to be affected. According to media reports, members of the faction formerly led by Kishida have also failed to report some political funds, although prosecutors do not consider this to be systematic.
Analysts warned that the purge of ministers and other senior party officials from the LDP's largest faction was a double-edged sword. The ouster could concentrate power under Kishida, but could also destabilize a government that relies heavily on support from the Abe faction.
Abe was the country's longest-serving prime minister and shaped Japan's foreign and defense policy over the past decade. But his sudden assassination last summer left his 99-member faction leaderless and struggling to exert the same influence as in the Abe era.
The funding scandal has contributed to a decline in Kishida's popularity, which was already low due to public dissatisfaction with higher living costs and concerns that the prime minister will raise taxes to fund planned increases in defense and child care spending.
According to a poll by public broadcaster NHK last weekend, public approval for Kishida's government has fallen to 23 percent, the lowest level of any prime minister since 2012.
While disgruntled members of the Abe faction may try to undermine Kishida, Takao Toshikawa, editor-in-chief of the political newsletter Insideline, said the funding scandal could work in the prime minister's favor because the LDP would come under public fire if they did so openly would get involved in factional fights.
“Many people say that Prime Minister Kishida is in the last days of his government, but I actually believe he will persevere,” Toshikawa said.
He noted that one scenario would be for Kishida to call a snap election in March with a campaign promise to end the LDP's factional politics. If he fails to regain his popularity, he and his Cabinet could be forced to resign en masse after the budget is passed at the end of the fiscal year in March.
The influence of LDP factions has waned since the mid-2000s as power has been consolidated under the office of the prime minister. Electoral reforms in the mid-1990s also reduced the role of political groups in campaign financing.
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But many MPs still join factions because they continue to have influence over the allocation of cabinet posts and other party positions. Factional fighting remains a prominent feature of life in Tokyo's Nagatacho political district and was central to the leadership of the LDP and Japan's postwar politics.
Analysts have compared the current situation to the Recruit shares for political favors scandal in the late 1980s.
Masatoshi Honda, a political analyst and academic, said Kishida could survive the scandal, but only because other senior members of the LDP did not want to take power at a time of such great political turmoil.
“I think the reason for the decline in his approval rating was that it was unclear what Prime Minister Kishida wanted to do,” Honda said. “But ironically, if political reform becomes an issue, it could actually give him a chance for a comeback.”