This end of the year is a double test for Europe. In Ukraine, the prospect of a victory over Russia is fading, and the Europeans, who would have the necessary resources, appear politically and materially unwilling to replace the US as this becomes increasingly likely, American support is waning or ceasing on. In the Middle East, Europe, unable to agree on a common position on Gaza, has exposed its divisions at the United Nations.
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This double debacle risks sealing the end of geopolitical Europe: the European Union (EU) clings to the illusion that the importance of its market, to which the rest of the world wants access, could be enough to increase its influence consolidate. But for this to happen, Europe would need a strategic direction that gives meaning to its actions. Europe exists, even if it is an idea, a universalist ambition that has its roots in the Age of Enlightenment. The same can certainly be said of the United States, but with one key difference: Even though the United States is deprived of its soft power, it is by far the leading military power and naturally finds its place in a world of power struggles. Where only the big animals count. Many in the world don’t like the United States, but they dare not ignore it.
Without their soft power, the Europeans are not much. Ukraine and Palestine are in danger of losing their self-respect and the respect of others. The EU is based on a simple idea: its internal functioning is regulated by laws. It certainly does not claim to impose this vision on the rest of the world, but can it seriously maintain the necessary support of its citizens and the respect of the world if it shows that it is unwilling to make any sacrifices to contribute to respect ? beyond its limits, of principles it considers universal?
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In Ukraine, the United States has reason to declare “mission accomplished.” Russia’s military capabilities are permanently weakened, and the West has demonstrated its ability to launch a comprehensive sanctions package: the lesson from China, Washington’s strategic priority, has not been lost.
Europeans are in a completely different situation: the risk of a Russian military attack on a NATO or EU member country is certainly very low, but we can be sure that Russia will take advantage of Ukraine’s political semi-defeat and sow doubt and division in demoralized European opinions. As for the countries that dream of joining the EU, they will see leaving Europe as a betrayal that will widen the gap between a weakened Union and its neighbors that will be difficult to bridge.
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