Joe Biden is “struggling to stay afloat” as the US “ignores” Iran's threats and continues to be challenged by Russia – while North Korea and China are “taking notes”, experts warn.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard confirmed yesterday that its forces had fired ballistic missiles near the US consulate in Erbil, northern Iraq – a move condemned as “reckless” by the US State Department.
Former military intelligence officer Colonel (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet and foreign policy expert Mark Toth called the U.S. response “as superficial as it is flawed” and said it was just the latest example of the Biden administration's inaction in the region.
Iran's so-called “Axis of Resistance” – including Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi rebels – has stepped up attacks on Israel and commercial shipping routes, prompting the US and Britain to launch devastating air and sea strikes.
But the experts told Web: “Despite everything the US military is currently displaying in the Middle East, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Iran and its proxies have not been deterred.”
Meanwhile, as the war in Ukraine approaches its third year, Vladimir Putin's rhetoric has become more aggressive. He threatens Ukraine's statehood and warns that Russia will “never” give up its achievements.
Facing the prospect of becoming even more embroiled in the war effort in Ukraine or a conflagration in the Middle East in an election year that is deeply unpopular with voters, Toth and Sweet say the White House is taking “the path of least resistance.” and avoid the inevitable.
“Neither Russia nor Iran has any intention of withdrawing,” Toth and Sweet said. “Putting things off will only make the problem worse.” This is the Biden dilemma – pay the political costs of kinetic intervention now or later in Americans’ lives.”
A residential building burns after it was hit by a Russian drone strike during Russia's attack on Ukraine, January 17, 2024, in Odessa, Ukraine
Israeli battle tanks roll into a position along the Gaza Strip border in southern Israel on January 17, 2024
Houthi fighters and tribesmen hold a rally against US and British attacks on Houthi-administered military sites near Sanaa, Yemen
They said the Biden administration was increasingly overwhelmed by “a trifecta of regional conflicts that his national security strategy should not support.”
The Biden administration has highlighted de-escalation as its main goal in the Middle East. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has made four trips to Israel and the wider region since the war broke out following the Hamas attacks on October 7.
Each time, Biden officials have been eager to emphasize their focus on de-escalation to prevent the war between Israel and Hamas from escalating into a larger conflict.
But as Hezbollah steps up attacks from across Israel's northern border and Houthi rebels launch attacks on ships in the Red Sea, many analysts say it is too late and a regional conflict has already begun.
The US president said last week that the United States had sent a private message to Iran about the Iranian-backed Houthis responsible for attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea.
“We delivered it privately and we are confident that we are well prepared,” Biden apparently told reporters
With such strong words, repeated regularly, Toth and Sweet say: “Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Al Khamenei continues to kinetically call President Joe Biden’s bluff across the Middle East.”
“The Biden administration does not want a direct confrontation with Iran, but that appears to be the calculated direction Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is taking it.”
Two children were killed and three other people were injured in an Iranian attack on targets in Pakistan, the Pakistani government said. Pictured: A rocket is fired at an unknown location in Iran in August 2020
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei meets with a large number of elegists and eulogists in Tehran, Iran, on January 3, 2024
Netanyahu is “ready to g. “O it alone without the USA” and said Biden this, Toth and Sweet claim. Pictured: The Israeli Prime Minister and the US President meet in Tel Aviv on October 18th
“Khamenei continues to raise the stakes – and the White House and Biden’s national security team continue to ignore it.”
The US is also working to pour cold water on potential threats in the Far East after the election of William Lai in Taiwan sparked anger from China, from which the incumbent president has demanded independence.
In response, Biden bluntly reiterated the U.S. position, saying “we do not support independence,” in an apparent attempt to prevent escalation and maintain dialogue between Taipei and Beijing.
Toth and Sweet describe it as an attempt to “appease” Chinese President Xi Jinping, calling his response “self-destructive.”
Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, left, celebrates his victory with his Vice President Bi-khim Hsiao in Taipei, Taiwan, Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024
Meanwhile, in Europe, the governments of Estonia, Sweden and the United Kingdom are warning of the risk of large-scale war.
The leaked German intelligence documents have raised alarm bells, revealing the path to war in which Putin uses Belarus as a launching pad for an invasion.
At the World Economic Forum last night, President Zelensky told Western leaders: “Strengthen our economy and we will strengthen your security.”
Biden's efforts to deliver a $106 billion aid package to Kyiv have been stalled by Republicans in Congress, and his administration said it was working to find a solution as quickly as possible.
But as the war with Russia drags on with limited gains for Ukraine, donor fatigue appears to be setting in among many policymakers.
At the World Economic Forum last night, President Zelensky told Western leaders: “Strengthen our economy, and we will strengthen your security.”
A return to the White House is looking increasingly likely for Donald Trump, whose past comments have stoked fears that he could cut funding to Ukraine
After winning a landslide victory in the early Republican primary this week, a return to the White House is looking increasingly likely for Donald Trump, whose past comments have stoked fears that he could cut funding to Ukraine.
“Domestic politics come into play,” Toth and Sweet said, adding that “the White House appears to be on the path of least resistance in the midst of the presidential election cycle.”
“Washington risks appearing as if it is prepared to pressure its partners – and military personnel stationed in the Middle East and East Africa – to avoid any direct military intervention in the next 10 months,” they warned.
“Zelenskyy and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are fighting for the survival of their country – not for any election cycle.” Both are ready to go it alone without the USA – Netanyahu has said so much to Biden about the threat.
“Without U.S. support, Ukraine and Israel can drag the U.S. into the very wars Biden is trying to avoid.”
“Biden is struggling to stay afloat — and other enemies, including China and North Korea, are taking notes.”