by Paolo Valentino
Former German Foreign Minister: “Titanic diplomatic efforts are needed.” Israel has no choice but to respond militarily to restore its deterrence capabilities.”
BERLIN – “It is difficult not to think of the year 1914, when events took on an uncontrollable dynamic and triggered the First World War,” says Joschka Fischer, weighing the words one after the other. The former German Foreign Minister, always a keen observer of the Middle East, does not hide great concern and pessimism about the Gaza crisis, which “brings the entire region to the brink of a general conflict.”
The war against Ukraine unleashed by Vladimir Putin was only the first domino that “finally plunges the post-1945 American peace into crisis” and triggers a “new geopolitical polarization in which no one will gain an advantage.” According to Fischer, there is “an impressive parallel” between the war in Ukraine and the war in the Gaza Strip: “At their core, both have an existential struggle for the survival of a nation-state.”
The former vice chancellor is convinced that Iran played a crucial leading and supporting role in Hamas’s brutal attack and that Israel “has no choice but to respond militarily to restore its deterrence capacity,” despite the loss of numerous lives and digs has cost an even deeper furrow of hatred between the two sides. This, Fischer said, was exactly “the result that those who planned and carried out the October 7 terrorist attack had hoped for.”
However, if we look up, Ukraine and Gaza confirm that we are witnessing the emergence of a new world order in which the West allies itself with Kiev and Tel Aviv, while powers such as China and Russia, as well as almost the entire so-called Global South on a line located on the opposite front. “It’s a dynamic that the West simply cannot accept,” Fischer warns, adding that “it will take a gigantic diplomatic effort to stop it.” Efforts that must take into account the demand for recognition and “a seat at the table” coming from the Global South.
Also because the two major conflicts do not take place in a vacuum. At the same time, potential hotspots of war are simmering in the Caucasus between Azerbaijan and Armenia, in the Balkans between Serbia and Kosovo, and in Africa in the Sahel, where a series of military coups and French strategic withdrawal have left the area in utter chaos. Last but not least, Fischer reminds us, “the danger of a military clash in the China Sea and the Taiwan Strait is growing, in which the American and Chinese superpowers would ultimately be directly involved.”
And here the former foreign minister invokes the lesson of history: “Attempts to shift the global balance of power and impose a new international order have never occurred without violence.” This makes the tone of the major powers towards each other more aggressive and all the more worrying.”
Countries that challenge the Pax Americana want to exploit their weaknesses: “The will of the international community to maintain the status quo has significantly weakened.” Ambition is taking over reason, which is once again becoming hostage to nationalist and religious passions.”
What we see today is just “a remnant of a world without order.” However, Fischer praises the “prudent and experienced leadership” of American President Joe Biden, whom many would like to ridicule because of his age, and wonders what would happen in this Middle East crisis in his absence: “The world would be even bigger,” more uncertain and more dangerous than what And”.
November 2, 2023 (changed November 2, 2023 | 10:20 p.m.)
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