Less than two months after being sworn in as president, Pedro Sánchez and his government are risking their political credibility in the first major litmus test with a decisive vote this Wednesday in the plenary session of Congress, the validation of three economic decrees with which, among other things, stand no less than 10 billion euros of the European economic recovery plan is at stake.
The consequences of a defeat, which the executive has been trying to avoid for days with painful negotiations, would be harsh for the millions of people affected by the decrees, from pensioners and recipients of unemployment benefits to electricity consumers, almost all citizens or users of public transport . But they would also have a strong political impact, because the coalition government has made political stability one of its greatest values with three budgets and more than 200 laws passed in the last legislative period.
The government would not fall from such a defeat, which cannot be compared to the rejection of some budget plans – which led to the snap elections in 2019 – but the image of the stability of the parliamentary majority in its first important test would be damaged. To avoid this, the PSOE, the main negotiator, and Sumar, who is responsible for one of the three decrees, namely Labor's, negotiated last night with the two groups that caused the most problems until the end: Junts and Podemos the idea of preparing the initiatives as draft laws in order to change them. The vote is scheduled for this Wednesday afternoon and the hearing can therefore be extended until the end.
The government flatly rejected the idea of withdrawing the decrees proposed by Junts and offered both the Independents and Podemos to negotiate the changes they demanded by processing the three decrees as a bill. But the groups are not trustworthy and demand concrete commitments with time horizons for reforms.
There is concern in the executive branch, although everyone hopes to conclude the negotiations at the last moment as before without losing the vote. Sánchez has had very narrow majorities for five years and has never lost a relevant vote, even if he occasionally gained it, for example on labor reform, due to a mistake by the PP during the upswing. “This situation makes little sense, these are not ideological decrees, there are 10 billion of European funds and a lot of aid at stake, that is incomprehensible,” despairs a minister, criticizing not only the allies who are causing problems, but also the PP , which is in the “no” and insists that it will not be the lifeline of Sánchez if he does not accept his tax cuts, which, according to La Moncloa, would mean 9 billion euros less for public coffers, unaffordable for them.
More information
What influences the most is what happens next. So you don't miss anything, subscribe.
Subscribe to
Just hours before the start of the Senate session, with the lower house under construction, the simple majority needed to validate the rules has not yet been formed. Moncloa has opened up to consider some of the requests from the Junts and Podemos formations, since the votes for both formations are crucial for the adoption of the decrees. Or at least the abstention of the independents. If either joins the No bloc, which includes PP, Vox and UPN, defeat is certain, but so is the political cost for those who join with the opposition to reject decrees that contain important social benefits.
While Junts focuses its negotiations on the so-called omnibus decree, Podemos is ready to support social protection and the deficit path, which will also be voted on this Wednesday, but flatly refuses to support the decree carried by the ministry of Yolanda Díaz They are very against it, if what they understand as a reduction in the subsidy is not withdrawn, that is, the contribution for people over 52, which was at 125%, will be gradually reduced until it reaches 100% in 2028. Work they point out , that the decree improves the subsidy by almost 100 euros on average – from 480 to 570 – for 736,074 people who are still waiting for this vote and who would lose this increase if the decree fails due to the rejection of Podemos or Junts or both would .
There are three decrees that the government adopted in December that must be confirmed in the extraordinary plenary session: the decree that extends a large part of the anti-crisis package until 2024 and the omnibus decree that imposes further measures related to the Receiving European funds includes funds – such as the digitalization of the judiciary – and this third is supported by the Ministry of Labor. For the three decrees, it confirmed the votes for the 121 seats of the PSOE, the 26 of Sumar, the 7 of ERC, the 5 of PNV, the 6 of EH Bildu and the Canary Coalition. That's 166 of the 350 MPs. A simple majority is required (more yes than no) so the equation does not add up to numbers as the safe no votes are 171 (PP, Vox and UPN). The BNG will not announce its position until this Wednesday, the day of the debate, at 10.30 a.m., although it is expected to vote in favor. If this were the case, the decrees would be passed either with the consent of Junts and Podemos or with the yes of Ione Belarra and the abstention of Puigdemont.
Hence the efforts of the executive branch to find a formula acceptable to both formations. Junts kept up the pressure until the end to demonstrate their strength as a demanding formation. but knowing that a break in the rope would mean that the creation of the amnesty law would be delayed until it was processed. Of course, Puigdemont's party needs a gesture that allows it to honor its history of demanding training against both Sánchez and his Esquerra rivals.
Junts surprised this Tuesday by including a new requirement in its conditions: the Independence Party demanded, due to the process, a fine for companies that do not return to Catalonia after their departure. In this regard, ministerial spokeswoman Pilar Alegría limited herself to saying that the “legal certainty” of companies must be guaranteed, to which PSOE parliamentary spokeswoman Patxi López added: “We are talking to Junts to see how.” “We are coming ourselves Clearly, to facilitate the return of companies.” According to government sources, one option being studied is to promote tax incentives rather than impose sanctions. Carles Puigdemont's party is demanding more for now.
Given the delicate situation, Alegría appealed this Tuesday to the parties, appealing to the responsibility that, in his opinion, is linked to maintaining the texts. “We are talking about measures that affect the citizens of this country, regardless of their ideology,” said the minister's spokesman, who in turn attacked Alberto Núñez Feijóo. “The People's Party would have to get more used to dialogue. This government has always expressed its willingness to speak. We believe that constructive answers can also be given by the opposition,” he explained.
Subscribe to continue reading
Read without limits
_