It is quite possible that Putin is bluffing by threatening to supply gas just for rubles. Even so, caution is needed. Cold gas withdrawal would come too soon for the EU.
The Ukrainians’ courageous defensive battle against the Russian aggressor apparently roused the fighting spirit of Europe. Unexpectedly, the EU Commission rejected Vladimir Putin’s demand that the West must pay only for Russian gas in rubles from this Thursday. Brussels and the seven largest industrialized nations do not want to undermine their own sanctions against Putin’s regime and thus finance their war in Ukraine. Instead, Europe is preparing to cut off gas supplies, hoping Putin is bluffing.
The odds are good that this tactic will work. The Russian president finally achieved his most important objective with the ultimatum: the ruble has appreciated sharply in recent days, and the loss of purchasing power among the Russian population has temporarily stopped. And the experience of Putin’s other threats in recent days is also hopeful. The Kremlin chief recently announced that he intends to repay government bonds issued in US dollars in rubles. In the end, Moscow transferred dollars after rating agencies made it clear that a payment in rubles would be considered a state bankruptcy. On Wednesday, the Kremlin also admitted that it would take longer for gas payments in rubles to actually start. Sealing off gas sources is also not easily possible for the country. The fear that the gas tap will be closed this Thursday is unfounded.