A new poll suggests a sharp drop in support for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in Quebec since returning to parliament in late January.
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The Liberal Party of Canada (PLC) would garner the support of 26% of Quebecers today, a rapid decline from 31% at the end of January and 32% in September, according to figures from Ottawa firm Abacus Data. , published on Monday.
The period of this poll, conducted between February 9 and 18, coincides with a series of identity issues for which Quebec liberals have been criticized from all quarters, beginning with the management of the file of Amira Elghawaby, newly in charge of the fight against Islamophobia, whose appointment was unanimously condemned in the National Assembly after more than a week of press uproar.
“It’s true that Liberals have a particularly difficult time on issues affecting Quebec,” said Jean-François Daoust, a political scientist at the University of Sherbrooke, who believes the story has become a real “ball” for the government has become.
The Roxham Road controversies and hesitations over official language reform are contributing to a phenomenon that seems inevitable: “the attrition of power,” said Mr Daoust.
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“Even if nothing catastrophic or disastrous happens, you would expect liberals to go under a bit over time,” he said.
And as for the official language law, the opposition of Anglo-Montreal MPs is not only badly perceived by a majority of Quebecers, but “projects the image of a divided party,” the expert continued.
Daniel Béland, professor and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, agreed.
“In recent weeks, there have been image problems with the Trudeau government in Quebec over immigration, health referrals, Islamophobia and language. Perhaps [le sondage] proves that these cases have hurt Quebec liberals,” he said.
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However, Mr Béland warns that “one swallow does not make a spring” and that further surveys will be needed before confirming whether this is a lasting trend.
“Nevertheless, what is certain is that liberals must look at these figures with nervousness, because without Quebec they are lost.”
According to Jean-François Daoust, for Liberals it would first be a matter of “limiting the linguistic damage” and “focusing their message on their good deeds”, then “distancing themselves from the attrition of power, either by presenting new faces or through changing topics” of the debate.
Abacus Data still gives Conservatives an eight-point lead nationwide, confirming a trend noted by other pollsters. It’s the biggest rise for Conservatives since the Liberals took power in 2015.
– With the collaboration of Anne-Caroline Desplanques