03/26/2023 10:57 am (act. 03/26/2023 11:00 am)
Putin announced the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus ©APA/Sputnik
Ukraine has described Belarus as Moscow’s “nuclear hostage” after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in the neighboring country. “The Kremlin has taken Belarus as a nuclear hostage,” tweeted Ukraine Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov on Sunday. This decision is a “step towards the internal destabilization of the country”.
According to Danilov, the announcement “increased the level of negative perception and public rejection of Russia and Putin in Belarusian society”. Putin said on Saturday that he had agreed to the deployment of nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory with Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus, which has been governed by Lukashenko since 1994, not only borders Ukraine, but also EU member states Poland and Lithuania.
Putin justified his decision with the intention, announced on Monday by British Deputy Defense Secretary Annabel Goldie, to supply Ukraine with armor-piercing ammunition containing enriched uranium.
Lukashenko is a staunch ally of Russian President Putin. At the beginning of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, the country, which is financially and politically dependent on Moscow, also served as a starting point for the Russian military offensive, but the Belarusian armed forces have not yet intervened in the fighting.
Despite Putin’s announcement that nuclear weapons will be stationed in Belarus, American experts see no growing danger of nuclear war. Saturday night’s announcement was irrelevant to the “risk of escalation to nuclear war, which remains extremely low,” according to an analysis by the US Institute for War Studies (ISW). Russia has already managed to reach any point on Earth with its nuclear weapons. But Putin is a “risk-averse actor who repeatedly threatens to use nuclear weapons without intending to do so”.
Putin wants to provoke fears of a nuclear escalation in the West to break support for Ukraine, for example, in the delivery of heavy weapons. According to ISW, it is “very unlikely that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or anywhere else”. According to ISW, Putin’s step had already been announced before the war in Ukraine. By deploying nuclear weapons in Belarus, Russia is, above all, consolidating its influence in the former Soviet republic.
In ISW’s new analysis, experts are also doubtful of Putin’s announcement that he would build or modernize 1,600 tanks this year. Accordingly, Russia’s only tank factory, Uralvagonzavod (UVZ), can only produce 20 tanks a month, but it is losing many times that number every day in the war in Ukraine.
According to the ISW authors, Putin is mainly trying to create a “Soviet-era aura” with his strong military industry at the time. However, his statements have nothing to do with the reality that the economic power and military capabilities of the US and Europe are superior to those of Russia.