It is always a gamble to make predictions in war. The battlefield is a mystery, even to the general staffs planning operations. But three months after the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, we must accept the evidence: the first phase of the reconquest has failed. It has only gained 200 square kilometers without touching a strategic center. The front line moved a few meters a day, a pace insufficient to generate momentum.
Rabotino’s victory is strategically insignificant: it cost immense losses for six weeks. The Ukrainian generals increasingly resemble Marshal Montgomery in the third El Alamein campaign: slow pace and no breakthrough, but attrition and ant-like pace. Unfortunately, this strategy is deceptive for them because Time is running out. Zelensky only has the month of September to bring about a turning point in events. After that it will be too late, because the fall will make major offensive operations impossible.
The mud will swallow tanks and armored vehicles. All that remains are missiles, flying bombs, drones and saboteur attacks. We already have an idea about it. These days the media is following the high-profile raids against the Crimean base in Sevastopol and the destruction of two ships valuable to the Russian war dynamic. Three days ago, a Neptune missile “eliminated” one of the anti-aircraft shields protecting the isthmus. It is the second center within a month. But wars are won with ground troops and retaking cities. A huge task for the Ukrainians, as the Red Army still holds 160,800 square kilometers of their country in its hands.
The battle of the “flying machines” only fuels empty hopes, even as American 300-kilometer missiles and F-16s arrive. Both the former and the latter will be few. They will have a weak effect and offer little chance of success. They will never be able to emulate the Americans who rained down a firestorm on Saddam Hussein’s columns in Iraq in 2003, pulverizing them with 500 rockets and 1,700 air strikes in a single day.
At best, the new additions will freeze the status quo and prolong the conflict without undermining order. Many now admit that Ukrainians will emerge from the summer fighting exhausted. In three months, 35,000 to 50,000 men cried and spent more on reserves than the Russians. They will need new blood.
If all goes well, they will return to the offensive in the spring of 2024, time to regenerate their forces, prepare the ground, fill the arsenals and stock up on grenades. With one problem on the horizon: men are in short supply.
Zelensky called on his European allies to send back to Ukraine his adult compatriots who had emigrated in recent months. A step that sounds desperate at a critical moment.
American public opinion is tired of war and inconclusive aid. If the Republicans win the 2024 presidential election, only Europe will remain in Kiev. Will we be up to the challenge? Rheinmetall’s factories built in Ukraine promise 400 wagons per year. But they are still ongoing and vulnerable. Once completed, they will be the main target for Russian bombing.
Since the wars were two wars, the Red Army did not stand idle. It is exhausted after the summer, but in recent months it has transformed the defense industry. The New York Times says that Rostec would now produce seven times as much artillery as the Euro-Americans and would be able to produce hundreds of modern tanks per year (T-72B3M, T-80 BVM and T-90M). For those who take sides, a stalemate is the most likely outcome of this dirty war, because Russia is tough.
He is already reinforcing the Zaporizhzhia front with troop reserves. It is difficult to predict what he will do in the future: will he strive to reduce Rabotino’s lead? Will he attack to free Donetsk from the enemy’s grip? Will it move the axes further north towards Svatove? Or will he be satisfied with the profits made? One thing is certain: she will do what she has always done best: fight with tenacity and solidity, without extraordinary heroics. This is why diplomacy is showing signs of awakening.