January 23, 2024, 00:23 GMT
Updated 48 minutes ago
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Kim Jong Un's new tone should not be ignored, experts say
North Korea experts – by nature a cautious group that doesn't want to sow panic – have been put on the spot by two experts.
Last week, the two respected analysts dropped a bombshell, so to speak, when they expressed their belief that the pariah state's leader was preparing for war.
Kim Jong Un has abandoned the fundamental goal of reconciliation and reunification with South Korea, they said. Instead, he portrays the North and South as two independent states at war.
Such an announcement set alarm bells ringing in Washington and Seoul and sparked massive debate among North Korean observers.
However, most analysts disagree with the war theory; The BBC spoke to seven experts in Asia, Europe and North America – none of whom supported the idea.
“Putting one's entire regime at risk in a potentially catastrophic conflict is not a hallmark of the North Koreans. They have proven themselves to be ruthlessly Machiavellian,” said Christopher Green, a Korea monitor with the Netherlands-based Crisis Group.
He and others note that the North often tries to bring Western powers to the table for dialogue; and there is also political pressure at home.
But they agree that Mr. Kim's increasing incitement cannot be ignored and his regime has become more dangerous.
While most believe war is still unlikely, some fear a more limited attack is yet to come.
What led to this?
Close observers of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are accustomed to his nuclear threats, but some say recent messages from Pyongyang are of a different nature.
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Kim took a new path at the Jan. 15 meeting of the Supreme People's Assembly
Since early January, North Korea has also announced a test of a new solid-fuel missile and its underwater attack drones, which it says can carry a nuclear weapon.
They are the result of two years of nearly monthly missile launches and weapons development in blatant violation of UN sanctions.
However, his announcement last week that he would formally abandon the goal of the association raised eyebrows.
Reunification with the South had always been a central – if increasingly unrealistic – part of the North's ideology since the founding of the state.
“This is a big deal. It fundamentally changes one of the regime’s core ideological principles,” said Peter Ward, a senior researcher at Kookmin University in Seoul.
Kim Jong Un would now tear down this legacy – literally. In addition to closing diplomatic channels and cross-border radio broadcasts, he has announced he will demolish the Reunification Arch, a nine-story monument on the outskirts of Pyongyang.
The arch, depicting two women in traditional Korean clothing reaching toward each other, was erected in 2001 to honor his father and grandfather's efforts toward the goal of reunification.
Image source: Getty Images
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Kim Jong Un said he planned to destroy this symbol of unification to show his disgust for the South
Satellite images released by Planet Labs on Tuesday appear to show that the arch may already have been destroyed, although there is no official confirmation of this.
Kim Il Sung was the one who went to war in 1950, but he was also the one who initiated the idea that North Koreans would eventually be reunited with their southern relatives.
But his grandson has now decided to define the South Koreans as completely different people – perhaps to justify them as a military target.
A limited strike imminent?
Mr. Carlin and Dr. Hecker, the analysts who predicted war, have interpreted all of this as signs that Kim Jong Un is committed to actually putting up a fight.
But most analysts disagree. Seong-Hyon Lee of the George HW Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations points out that the country is set to reopen to foreign tourists next month, and that the country is also sending its own shells for the war to Russia sold – something it could hardly afford otherwise – it was preparing for the battlefields.
The ultimate deterrent, however, is that the U.S. and South Korean armies would be much more advanced if the North launched an attack.
“A general war could kill many people in the south, but it would be the end of Kim Jong Un and his regime,” says Mr. Ward of Kookmin University.
Instead, he and others warn that conditions for smaller action are becoming more intense.
“I'm generally much more concerned about a limited attack on South Korea… an attack of this type would target South Korean territory or forces but would be limited in scope,” said analyst Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
This could even take the form of shelling or attempting to occupy contested islands west of the Korean Peninsula.
In 2010, the North attacked Yeonpyeong Island, killing four South Korean soldiers, infuriating the South.
Analysts suggest a similar provocation could be staged again to test South Korea's limits and push the buttons of President Yoon Suk Yeol, a defiantly aggressive leader who has vowed to respond to a North Korean attack with a force “many times harder.” “To respond to punishment. .
“North Korea can expect Seoul to launch a disproportionate retaliatory attack,” Panda said, which could lead to a major escalation in fighting.
Leverage playbook move
Others say fears of war should also be placed in the context of Kim's actions.
“If you look at North Korea's history, it has often used provocations to attract the attention of other countries when it wanted to negotiate,” says Seong-Hyon Lee.
The regime continues to suffer from economic sanctions and 2024 is an election year for its enemies – with the US presidential election and the South Korean parliamentary poll.
“This is a good opportunity for Kim Jong Un to provoke,” explains Dr. Lee.
The current U.S. administration under President Joe Biden – which has close ties to Ukraine and Gaza – has not paid much attention to North Korea, and Pyongyang has also typically cooperated most with Republican administrations.
Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump famously had an affair in 2019 before denuclearization talks collapsed – and the North Korean leader may be waiting for the former US president to return to the White House, where he could weaken the alliance with South Korea and be open again to dialogue.
Analysts suggest that North Korea's closer friendship with Russia and continued economic support from China may also have spurred North Korea's boldness over the past year. It received technical assistance from Russia to achieve the long-term goal of launching its spy satellites, and the two states had several high-profile meetings last year, including a leaders' summit.
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Kim traveled to Russia's premier space facility last November, after which his regime was able to launch the satellite
“Much of what we are seeing is the result of North Korea’s broader confidence in its own capabilities and geopolitical position in the face of Russian and, to a lesser extent, Chinese support,” Panda says.
Domestic destinations
And others say Kim Jong Un's behavior is aimed solely at stabilizing his own regime.
“This appears to be an ideological adjustment for the survival of the regime,” argues Professor Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha University in Seoul. “North Koreans are increasingly aware of their communist country’s weaknesses compared to the South.”
He suggests that a policy focused on defining the enemy should justify Mr. Kim's missile spending at a difficult time. There are reports of famine across the country.
Portraying the South as the enemy also makes it easier to resolve the “cognitive dissonance at the core” of the North's view of South Korea, Mr. Ward points out.
“It used to be an indelibly evil state that should be the target of unification with a hopelessly corrupt culture that should not be consumed under any circumstances, but with people who need to be freed from their evil government,” says Mr Ward.
“Now the country and its culture can easily be branded as evil, and that justifies the continued crackdown on South Korean culture.”
“He doesn't actually want war – a huge gamble in which he would have nothing to gain and everything to lose,” says Sokeel Park of Liberty in North Korea, an NGO that helps North Korean refugees.
His threats are instead aimed at consolidating his new North and South policies, which he says are ultimately aimed at strengthening his power at home.
While it is important for South Korea, the United States and their allies to prepare for the worst-case scenario, analysts say it is also worth a thorough examination of North Korea's internal situation and broader geopolitics.
Ultimately, the best way to find out what the leader of the North is thinking is to get in touch with him, argues Dr. Lee.
“The international community does not view the US talks with Kim Jong Un as a capitulation to Kim Jong Un's threats. It is seen as a necessary means to achieve a goal,” he says.
“If necessary, consider meeting with the leader of an enemy nation to reduce miscalculation and prevent war.”
With reporting by Kelly Ng