The last “prophecy” that Henry Kissinger left us came 48 hours before the Hamas attack on Israeli civilians. On October 5 last year, Kissinger gave a speech to the New York think tank Council on Foreign Relations, of which I am a member, to commemorate the Yom Kippur War that had broken out 50 years earlier. He reconstructed America’s role in that 1973 conflict: first, to save Israel from defeat at the hands of the Arab coalition; and then to weave the threads of a dialogue that would lead to peace with Sadat’s Egypt. A message of hope that is valuable in today’s war: Even in that tragic turn of events in 1973, the horizon seemed dark, but diplomacy prevailed.
A few months earlier, in July of this year, there had been his astonishing mission to Beijing: the centenarian used all his influence to renew the threads of a dialogue between America and China that seemed endangered after the incidents with Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan and the spy Balloon. If the recent summit between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco marked a truce in escalating tensions, perhaps some credit also goes to this trip by Kissinger, the elder statesman whom the Chinese have never stopped respecting. According to him, the future of all humanity depends on the relationship between America and China.
Among his statements in this regard: “What the United States and the People’s Republic of China have in common is that they view themselves as exceptional nations and both believe they have the right to prevail.” We must understand China’s historical resilience while preventing that it becomes hegemony. We won’t be successful with tests of strength.”
In his essay China, written more than a decade ago, at the time of Hu Jintao’s presidency, he astutely recognized the beginning of a turning point. Even then, Kissinger recognized that the Chinese leadership was drawing radical conclusions from the financial crisis of 2008: He was convinced that the era of imitating the USA was coming to an end; he considered the American political-economic model to be sick. Kissinger also sensed the emergence of a new Chinese generation that was more nationalistic and proud to the point of arrogance: it was they who, years later, would give birth to “wolf warrior” diplomacy. However, Nixon’s former adviser warned Americans above all about the dangers of a new Cold War: “It would halt progress on both sides of the Pacific, it would spread tensions to all regions of the world.”
About Ukraine. “Zelensky is a great character. But he still has to explain to us what world he imagines after the war. I never said that Ukraine must cede part of its territory if it wants peace. I have said that the best dividing line for a ceasefire is the status quo before February 24, with Crimea in Russian hands and a small part of Donbass, about 4.5% of the total. I am unreservedly in favor of Ukraine’s freedom and its role in Europe. But let’s not turn a war for Ukraine’s freedom into a conflict over Russia’s future.”
About the current American president. “Biden is too influenced by domestic politics.” Nixonia’s flexibility would be needed to defuse the current conflicts with Russia and China.” Today’s America seemed more divided to him than in the 1960s. “Even during the Vietnam War, there was consensus on some national goals, even if we disagreed about how to achieve those goals. Today, the definition of the country’s national interest and values is controversial. But no company can remain great if it loses confidence in itself and destroys its self-esteem.”
On the parliamentary inquiry into the attack on Congress on January 6, 2021: “It is not aimed at the historical truth, but rather at preventing a repeat of Donald Trump.”