Key Developments on January 3:
Russia is likely to “continue offensive operations this year” although it may lose tens of thousands of its soldiers in the coming months, a Ukrainian intelligence official said on January 3.
The Russians “understand that they will lose on the battlefield,” but they have no plans to end the war, said Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andrii Cherniak.
Commenting for RBK-Ukraine, a Ukrainian media outlet, Cherniak said Ukraine’s intelligence service was “sure” that Russia would still try to seize Donetsk Oblast and would do everything possible to open its land corridor on the southern coast Russian-held territories to hold Crimea.
Ukraine expects the Russian army to lose up to 70,000 more soldiers over the next 4-5 months, but the Kremlin seems “ready for such losses,” Cherniak added.
This latest intelligence assessment comes as senior Ukrainian officials warn that Russia could launch a major multi-pronged offensive in early 2023.
Cherniak also said Russian troops could “attack simultaneously from the north and east,” but “such enemy actions are expected and our troops are prepared for them.”
Russia’s battlefield achievements remain limited, even as fierce fighting raged in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russian troops have had to withdraw from 40% of Ukrainian territories they have held since February’s invasion, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said on January 2.
Russia’s “huge human resources”
Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Russia does not appear to be able to sustain the same intensity of its offensive that it had at the outset of the full-scale invasion, but it still has “enormous human resources” to fight the war continue against Ukraine.
The story goes on
“They may not be able to fight as intensely as they started, but they have enough reserves to fight this war,” Maliar said on TV.
While Maliar said it was an achievement that Ukraine is still “holding” part of Donetsk Oblast today, she acknowledged that “these are very difficult battles” that are “very tiring” for Ukrainian soldiers.
Russia now has hundreds of thousands of conscripts to send to the front lines. Ukraine’s supreme commander, Valeriy Saluzhnyi, admitted in December that Russia’s autumn mobilization of hundreds of thousands of soldiers “worked” and that conscripts were “a problem for us.” He estimated at the time that Moscow still had “a reserve of 1.2-1.5 million people.”
Expecting that Russia would recruit more soldiers given its stalled battlefield progress, Ukraine’s top defense officials recently said that Russian authorities plan to close their borders to men of draft age starting Jan. 5.
With difficult fighting ahead, Ukraine needs “strong motivation, professionalism and weapons” to maintain defenses in embattled Donetsk Oblast, Maliar said.
Currently, the epicenter of the battle is around Bakhmut, a salt-mining town nearly emptied of its 70,000 residents.
While Moscow has been massing its troops and equipment for half a year, Russian troops are likely to make “a significant breakthrough near Bakhmut” in the coming weeks, according to the UK MoD said on January 3rd.
Both sides are suffering “heavy casualties,” the ministry said, although “the frequency of Russian attacks has likely decreased since the mid-December peak” (due to Ukraine’s “significant reinforcement” to defend the Bakhmut sector).
Exclusion of Russian athletes
Farther from the frontline in the town of Druzhkivka, a Russian attack late on January 2 nearly destroyed the Altair ice arena, Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko reported. Two injured were reported in Druzhkivka.
The Ukraine Ice Hockey Federation condemned Russia’s missile attack as “another act of vandalism” and said in a statement that this was the fifth ice rink to be destroyed during the war, listing the previous ones as the stadiums in Kharkiv, Mariupol, Sievierodonetsk and Melitopol on.
The federation said the sports complex in Druzhkivka was “completely empty” and “not a military target”.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba condemned the attack and called on international sporting events to ban Russian athletes from competing.
“I invite all sports officials who want to allow Russian athletes to compete in international events because, as they say, ‘politics should be kept out of sport’ to visit the Altair Ice Arena in Druzhkivka, which is run by Russia’s ‘politically neutral’ shelling was destroyed, “Kuleba said in a Twitter post.
The Russian Defense Ministry admitted it attacked Druzhkivska and claimed it destroyed Ukrainian military equipment and weapons stored near the city’s train station.
attacks without end
The city of Kramatorsk, the provisional capital of Donetsk Oblast, suffered another rocket attack on January 3, injuring at least one person, according to Mayor Oleksandr Honcharenko.
Less than 24 hours ago, the Russian attack on Kramatorsk injured one person and damaged 34 houses and 8 apartment buildings, Kramatorsk City Council said.
Also on January 3, Russia directed a massive artillery barrage at the town of Kurakhove south of Kramatorsk.
Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko reported that artillery hit a residential building in Kurakhove, killing at least one person and injuring two.
Neighboring buildings and a water supply facility were also damaged, Kyrylenko said as he issued another urgent evacuation call for the remaining residents of Donetsk Oblast as Russia stepped up its shelling of civilian areas.
In southern Ukraine, Kherson Oblast Governor Yaroslav Yanushevich said two motorists were killed by a landmine laid by Russian troops before their departure in November.
Yanushevych urged residents to be careful as a “very large” number of explosives remain in the liberated areas, adding that work is underway to safely dispose of them.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s air defenses have reported shooting down all 84 drones fired at the country by Russia in the first two days of 2023.
Since September, Ukraine has shot down nearly 500 drones launched by Russia, according to the Air Force.