The main reason Israel's heavy bombardment of the Gaza Strip for nine weeks has not pushed hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into Egypt is the country's heavily fortified border and Cairo's ironclad determination to keep it closed.
But the pressure is growing. Israel is relentlessly pushing Gaza's 2.2 million residents south as its forces seek to destroy Hamas's military wing and its infrastructure, and about 85 percent of the population has been displaced. Hundreds of thousands of displaced people are currently living in squalid, cramped conditions in Rafah, the southernmost region of Gaza, right on the border with Egypt.
The dire conditions have heightened fears that the border with Egypt could be breached, allowing large numbers of Palestinian refugees to enter Egypt and potentially destabilizing an Arab ally of the United States.
There are more and more camps full of tents and other makeshift structures in Rafah. Source: Mustafa Thraya/Portal
Israeli officials have stated that they have no intention of pushing Gazans into Egypt, and the Egyptian government has long refused to give Gazans refuge in the Sinai Peninsula for fear that Israel will send them will never be allowed to return to their homeland, and that Hamas and other militant groups that do not do so will not allow friends of the government in Cairo to set up operations there.
Satellite images released this week clearly show the number of people near the border and show a large number of temporary shelters in the Tel al-Sultan area of the Rafah region. Comparisons with photos of the same area taken last month show that the density of displaced Gazans has skyrocketed since Israel began issuing evacuation orders this month for parts of Khan Younis, a larger city six miles north enacted.
The images match reports from aid officials who have warned that the southern Gaza Strip is unequipped to provide even basic services for the hundreds of thousands of displaced people who have landed there.
Northwest side of Tel al-Sultan district
of Rafah before the ceasefire
After expanding evacuation orders
around Khan Younis
2,000 feet
to the border
with Egypt
Northeast side of Tel al-Sultan district
of Rafah before the ceasefire
After expanding evacuation orders
around Khan Younis
1.3 miles
to the border
with Egypt
Northwest side of Tel al-Sultan
Rafah district
before the ceasefire
After the expansion of
Evacuation orders
around Khan Younis
2,000 feet
to the border
with Egypt
Northeast side of Tel al-Sultan
Rafah district
before the ceasefire
After the expansion of
Evacuation orders
around Khan Younis
1.3 miles
to the border
with Egypt
As winter begins, many people have only basic, improvised shelter to protect themselves from the elements, and every day is a struggle to find enough food and clean water. Toilets are in short supply. Although Rafah is one of the few towns in Gaza to receive aid in recent weeks, hunger and communicable diseases are still spreading rapidly, aid groups and U.N. officials say.
Israel launched its bombing and ground invasion after Hamas, which has ruled Gaza for 16 years, launched a surprise attack on towns in southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people, mostly civilians. Since then, at least 15,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli airstrikes and other military operations in Gaza, according to Gaza health authorities.
At the start of the war, Israel declared the entire northern half of the Gaza Strip an evacuation zone and sent people to the south, where they believed they would be safe. Then Israel ordered the evacuation of parts of the south as well, forcing many people who had already fled the north to relocate again.
Before the war, several hundred thousand people lived in Rafah, but in recent weeks the population has increased dramatically. People fleeing airstrikes in the north began arriving early in the war, although Israel continued to bomb targets in Rafah. Aid groups say tens of thousands more people have arrived this month in the areas of Tel al-Sultan and al-Mawasi, further west on the Mediterranean coast.
I wait in line to get food on Wednesday.Credit: Fatima Shbair/Associated Press
The long history of displacement of Palestinians during their 75-year conflict with Israel has left their leaders and their Arab neighbors worried that an exodus of Gazans to Egypt could be permanent.
To guard against such a scenario and prevent an influx of Hamas and other militants from Gaza, Egypt has fortified its seven and a half mile border with Gaza for years.
Over the past decade, Egyptian forces have flooded and destroyed a network of smuggling tunnels under the border and reinforced the barrier running along the border. In some places, this barrier now consists of a towering metal wall with a fence on top to prevent people from climbing over it, as well as underground barriers to prevent new tunnels from being dug.
Part of the border wall between Egypt and Rafah.Credit: Giuseppe Cacace/Agence France-Presse – Getty Images
Between 2013 and 2015, Egypt also forced thousands of people from their homes and demolished more than 3,000 buildings along the border to create a buffer zone, according to a report by Human Rights Watch. Since the start of the current war, the Egyptian army has built more fortifications, erected sand barriers and stationed tanks and other military vehicles near the border, according to local residents.
At the same time, on the Gaza side, Hamas, whose militants are busy fighting Israel, has largely given up on border security.
So far, Egypt's fortifications appear to be strong enough to prevent Gazans from slipping across the border. But security at the intersection is low, and a large, angry crowd could get their way, say people who have walked through the intersection recently. Another risk is that new holes will appear in the barrier, either by mistaken Israeli attacks or by Gazan militants or residents with explosives seeking a way out.
This is not without precedent. In 2008, Hamas blasted holes in the barrier and tens of thousands of Gazans stormed through, using their visit to stock up on everything from cigarettes to satellite dishes before returning to their besieged territory.
Lauren Leatherby contributed reporting.