Three unrelated events will mark the end of the year and the beginning of 2023 in Latin America. All three refer to the recent past, but at the same time they are framed in different times and the region is facing a transition phase after a period of change. First of all, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva takes office as President of Brazil this Sunday after defeating far-right Jair Bolsonaro in the elections. Eight years in power, jailed for corruption, and now the leader of the Labor Party is returning to power at the head of a broad coalition with the challenge of rebuilding a country hurt by the outgoing president and the ambition to restore his true values leave a mark politics.
Second, in Venezuela, the epicenter of the turmoil in Latin America over the past decade, the opposition has just ended Juan Guaidó’s so-called “interim presidency” in search of a new strategy to confront Nicolás Maduro. Adding to serious internal tensions, the decision comes amid negotiations with Chavismo – driven by Norway with the backing of Mexico – to agree on guaranteed elections in 2024. And finally, the ruling party in Bolivia is trying to close a cycle with the punishment of Luis Fernando Camacho, current governor of the department of Santa Cruz and instigator of the protests that in 2019 led to the overthrow of Evo Morales, who has just been arrested.
Aside from Lula’s new mandate, these operations are not without risk. The Venezuelan opposition faces a deep crisis, and in Bolivia supporters of Camacho, an ultra-Catholic regionalist leader, are threatening permanent mobilization. However, they all point to a transition into the regional political balances. The last twelve months have been characterized by some unprecedented changes and also by convulsions.
The most significant milestone left by 2022 in Latin America is the victory of Gustavo Petro in Colombia, who for the first time in history brought the left to power in the Andean country. The President, a former M-19 guerrilla, has managed to forge a pluralistic coalition government, has entered into negotiations with the National Liberation Army and is determined to press ahead with the disarmament of all armed groups. This year will be a test bed for the ambitious plan of so-called total peace and, more broadly, will measure the favorable conditions for change and the government’s leeway to lay the groundwork for its project.
Something similar is happening in Chile. Gabriel Boric won the elections at the end of 2021 but took office in March 2022. Chileans flatly rejected the new text, which would have replaced a constitution dating back to Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship. But the progressive president reopened the bowler hat and promoted a new constituent process. Political and social forces reached an agreement three weeks ago. In April, voters elect a council tasked with drafting the new constitution, which must be ratified by a referendum scheduled for late November 2023.
This will be one of the most important election dates of the year. The other, crucial to the balance of the entire subcontinent, occurs in Argentina. The presidential election comes after the court’s decision to ban Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the country’s most popular politician – and also the one most questioned by her opponents – from running in the elections. The ex-president also suffered an attack last September that did not end in an assassination attempt because the attacker’s pistol was jammed. What happened has pushed polarization to the limit as Argentina navigates a deep economic crisis, only eased in recent days by victory at the World Cup in Qatar. “Neither resignation nor self-exclusion, here is a ban,” said politicians this week about their disqualification due to a corruption case. In any case, these circumstances compel Peronism to define a candidate.
Subscribe to EL PAÍS to follow all the news and read without limits.
Subscribe to
2023 will also see elections in neighboring Paraguay, where ruling Colorado Party candidate Santiago Peña will face Efraín Alegre of the Authentic Radical Liberal Party. And in Central America, the Guatemalans come to the June elections after a period of deep institutional attrition under the mandate of Alejandro Giammattei, who turned his mandate into a new battering ram against the press and the independence of powers.
Mexico is not holding a presidential election this year, but it may be the country where the 2024 campaign will be most intense. In the absence of leadership in the ranks of the opposition, all eyes are on the successor to President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The dispute, which has fueled internal tensions in the pro-government movement Morena, will be settled by polls beginning after the election of the governors of Mexico and Coahuila. Mexico City’s Prime Minister Claudia Sheinbaum and Secretary of State Marcelo Ebrard are emerging as favorites for elections that will start a new cycle.
Where there are no elections, at least for the moment, is in Peru. The Andean country has been the scene of the most important political upheavals of the year in recent weeks. Pedro Castillo’s failed attempted coup has reopened Pandora’s box. The dismissal and subsequent arrest of the country teacher accused of rebellion and conspiracy triggered a wave of protests that claimed nearly thirty lives. However, the new President Dina Boluarte and Congress have avoided bringing the elections forward to 2023 and scheduling them for April 2024. In any case, it remains to be seen whether the new government will be able to withstand the social pressures in a climate of maximum tension that it has just passed to coincide with the celebrations.
Follow all international information on Facebook and Twitteror in our weekly newsletter.