Following El Salvador, Ecuador this week launched a war against cartels and gangs, an option that has shown its flaws and even its perverse effects in Colombia and Mexico, where authorities are trying other strategies.
“Internal armed conflict” to “neutralize” 22 “terrorist groups”, with a curfew and the deployment of thousands of soldiers: With the support of the USA, Ecuador has declared a state of emergency in view of the latest outbreak of violence: escape, take hostages.
“Governments are resorting to this response because they want immediate answers,” said Mathew Charles of the Colombian Organized Crime Observatory.
President Daniel Noboa had already called for militarization of the country during the election campaign after the murder of a candidate, remembers think tank Insight Crime.
At the beginning of January, the young president also announced the construction of two high-security prisons modeled on those built in El Salvador.
Plagued by gang violence, tiny Salvador (population six million, 8,124 km2) claims to be a benchmark when it comes to security.
President Nayib Bukele has detained more than 73,000 suspected gangsters under a state of emergency that has been widely criticized by human rights activists. Subsequently, around 7,000 innocent people were released.
Bukele announced a murder rate of 2.4/100,000 residents for 2023, compared to 83/100,000 in 2017 before his election. “El Salvador is officially the safest country in Latin America,” asserted the very popular president during the election campaign.
“Flawed drug policy”
Repression is urgently needed in Ecuador, “but it obviously won't be enough,” former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa told AFP.
He calls for more “control” over money laundering in his country, whose economy is based on dollars.
The war in Ecuador against gangs “lacks an exit strategy,” adds think tank Insight Crime.
“We know that violent tactics never last and only work immediately,” summarizes expert Mathew Charles from the Colombian Observatory for Organized Crime.
Criminals “always have guns” and will “respond with more violence,” he continues. “Sending people to prison is not a solution because we have seen that in prisons it is the gangs that control and command.”
In Colombia and Mexico, left-wing presidents have initiated a change in strategy.
“In America, the expansion of powerful international gangs is linked to flawed anti-drug policies,” Colombian President Gustavo Petro reiterated on Wednesday, responding on X (formerly Twitter) to the US “aid” proposal for Ecuador.
“Despite the enormous efforts made for more than half a century,” the fight against drugs has not achieved its goals, his government noted in a 2022 report on coca plantations.
According to the United Nations, Colombia remains the world's leading producer of cocaine, with at least 1,738 tons in 2022.
“Latin American countries must pursue strong policies in favor of young people,” emphasizes the Colombian president, who will be elected in 2022.
His government wants to “supply oxygen” to areas affected by drug trafficking and “suffocate” criminal organizations “that generate violence” over a period of ten years (2023-2033).
“Long-term strategy”
Mexico is also trying to end the “war on drugs” started in December 2006 by former President Felipe Calderon.
Since then, the number of murders (more than 400,000) and kidnappings (tens of thousands) has continued to rise.
The attempt to “neutralize” cartel leaders has favored the emergence of “younger” leaders, “sometimes without strategic vision,” “more violent,” according to security expert Erubiel Tirado of the Ibero-American University in Mexico.
President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, in power since December 2018, described the war on crime launched by his predecessor as a “crime.”
“We cannot meet violence with violence,” he added. His government says it is tackling the causes of violence with social programs to combat poverty.
At the same time, Lopez Obrador created a new security force, the National Guard (which replaced the previous federal police). During his time in office, several drug lords were arrested.
“We arrest criminals every day. And when there are no other options, arguments arise,” he summarized on July 4, 2022.
Under his mandate, the murder rate broke a record of 29 per 100,000 residents between 2018 and 2020, before returning to 25/100,000 in 2022.
Latin America suffers from “corruption” and social inequality, concludes expert Mathew Charles and therefore calls for “a holistic program of security, anti-corruption and social investments”. But this requires long-term strategies.