The second economy in the euro zone and the fifth in the world, France, celebrates this Sunday the first round of presidential elections, in which not only the future of this country is at stake, but also that of the community project. Far-right Marine Le Pen (Rallye National) has gained positions, the latest polls confirm. Some of them assert that he is only half a point away from president and re-election candidate Emmanuel Marcon (The March Republic).
The abstention could reach 30% this Sunday and 40% in the second round that will take place on April 24, very high data in the French context and that benefits the national-populist candidate whose bases are highly mobilized unlike the strong dissatisfaction with the rest of the electorate.
Looking ahead to the second round, there are polls giving up to 47.5% of the vote estimate for the National Rally, less than five points behind Macron. Given this data, the question arises: why has French society normalized the extreme right?
Weeks ago, the polls predicted a landslide victory for Macron. Analysts attribute Le Pen’s rise to a number of factors. These include the president’s campaign strategy, which has focused on the war in Ukraine rather than the domestic political agenda, the disintegration and disorientation of the progressive bloc, and polarization.
extreme boom
The two far-right parties would add 30% of the vote and third place would go to the populist left of La Francia Insumisa, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. According to polls, half of his voters refuse to support Macron in the second round.
For all these reasons, Le Pen’s victory cannot be ruled out, and this scenario would mark a before and after in the Community institutions given the candidate’s clear skepticism. The head of state is no longer talking about leaving the EU and the euro zone. Now he is defending the “re-establishment” of the joint project and also rejects NATO. Added to this are his ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, although he tried to hide them during the election campaign.
In 2002, the Front National, led by Marine’s father Jean-Marie, made it through to the second round, but an unprecedented mobilization from the centre-right and left handed Gaullist Jacques Chirac an historic victory. “He won with 82% of the vote; In 2017, Macron got 66%,” and now the polls give Macron a meager victory, emphasizes Professor of Political Science at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) and an expert on electoral behavior Oriol Bartomäus.
But why doesn’t national populism generate the same animosity today as it did 20 years ago? Two factors contributed significantly to this situation: Le Pen’s shift in strategy and the emergence of a new far-right party, Resistencia, which helped moderate the National Assembly.