Lebanon has been without a President for more than seven months after the Lebanese Parliament failed again on Wednesday 14 June to elect a President of the Republic. In view of an acute economic and financial crisis, the country is threatened with a lengthy vacancy at the head of state.
The 128 MPs gathered for a 12th electoral session had to choose between Sleiman Frangié, a former interior minister near Damascus who is backed by the Shia politico-military movement Hezbollah, and Jihad Azour, a former finance minister who in office until the end, decide last week Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa at the IMF. The latter received 59 votes versus 51 votes for its competitor.
A second round could not then be organized due to a lack of the required quorum, since the members of parliament from Hezbollah and their allies had left parliament to prevent it from taking place.
In this regard, former French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, who was appointed “Personal Envoy for Lebanon” by Emmanuel Macron a few days ago, will travel to Beirut next week. The Elysée Palace has indicated that its role will be to “facilitate” a “consensual and effective” solution to get the Cedar Country out of the crisis it has been in since the end of Michel Aoun’s six-year tenure on March 31. October 2022 stuck.
Paris wants to end the vacancy
France is the western power that has invested the most in finding a solution to the political crisis in Lebanon, the only country in the Middle East where it still has some influence.
On February 6, in the French capital, representatives of France, the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar discussed the situation in Lebanon and in particular the election of the future head of state, an important step in breaking the political stalemate in the country and allowing him to to benefit from international aid – and thus revitalize its economy.
“France retains a significant political, economic, social and cultural influence in Lebanon and remains one of the few countries that speaks with all parties because, unlike the United States, it has open channels and does not hesitate to engage in dialogue with Hezbollah,” recalls Karim Émile Bitar, director of the Department of Political Science at Saint Joseph University in Beirut. In addition, for several years, the French have maintained solid relations with the Gulf petromonarchies, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which have an influence over Lebanon that gives it multiple leverage to act on the Lebanese stage.”
On Friday, Emmanuel Macron and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed ben Salmane, who was on an official visit to France, called for a “quick end to the political vacancy” in Lebanon, the Elysee Palace said on Friday evening after a meeting between the two both with guide.
The French president intends to urge the Saudis to “start talks with the Iranians and others to create favorable conditions for the election of a Lebanese president,” the presidency had hinted at before MBS arrived in France.
Riyadh, which retains some influence in Lebanon – but significantly less than Iran’s via Hezbollah – announced in Beijing in early April that it was resuming its ties with Tehran after years of tensions.
A candidate backed by Hezbollah… and France
While Paris officially reiterated that it would not support any candidate, French diplomacy opted for a strategy which was to work behind the scenes to get Sleiman Frangié elected.
Supporting the Hezbollah candidate in the name of realpolitik “in return for certain concessions and certain guarantees to defuse the political crisis,” confides Karim Émile Bitar, also Iris research director.
“France actually positioned itself in a very classic realpolitik perspective with a very pragmatic approach, after acknowledging that the Lebanese political class was still extraordinarily resilient and that Hezbollah, which was still the most powerful, was not inclined to do so refrain from electing his candidate for the presidency, otherwise it could block the electoral process for the necessary time,” he stresses.
So the French strategy, according to Karim Émile Bitar, was to “broaden the parameters of the negotiations and, in exchange for the election of Sleiman Frangié, forcing concessions such as the appointment of a prime minister close to the reformist current that would be dubbed by Saudi Arabia .
It was about securing the appointment of the former Lebanese ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam, “a judge at the International Court of Justice who is close to the circles of the dispute”.
“That’s not all,” he adds. France had also asked for guarantees from Sleiman Frangié that he would not obstruct the appointment of a central bank governor who did not belong to the same policy as himself, nor was he one of the main structural reforms that the government should implement, in particular the agreement with the IMF.
Sleiman Frangié, leader of the Marada movement, during a press conference in Bkirké, Lebanon, October 30, 2021. © Mohamed Azakir, Portal (Archive)
According to Karim Émile Bitar, this approach was rather poorly received by some of France’s friends in Lebanon, who saw a “certain cynicism” beyond Realpolitik and refused that Paris would support the candidate of pro-Iranian Hezbollah, a secret party, as a terrorist organization by Washington, the Gulf States and the Arab League, which de facto dominates the local political scene thanks to its military arsenal.
This is partly why the main Christian parties, despite their great rivalry, have agreed to propose an alternative with the candidacy of Jihad Azour. Even the previous opposition candidate Michel Moawad announced his withdrawal in favor of the former finance minister.
“We disagreed with the French strategy which, in the name of pragmatism, tried to support a Hezbollah nominee in exchange for the appointment of a reformist, liberal and sovereign prime minister,” explains Michel Moawad. A formula that doesn’t work, worse, it’s a fundamental flaw because it boiled down to accepting Hezbollah’s total control over Lebanon and we’ve shared it with our French partners.”
And further: “We have spoken out against such a perspective because we know what Hezbollah’s guarantees are worth, which only apply to those who believe in them. For me, the guarantees must come from a president who can represent the state and the Lebanese, and not a person who represents Hezbollah and its interests within the state.”
The former presidential candidate believes that France “has undoubtedly been involved in good faith in a game” that does not meet “the expectations of the Lebanese”.
This isn’t the first time that France has tried in vain to untangle the inextricable threads of Lebanese politics, with leaders more inclined to continue traditional political haggling than to attempt to resolve the crises affecting a country in the suffer financial bankruptcy.
Following the Beirut port explosions, Emmanuel Macron made two trips to Lebanon in August 2020 to offer assistance to France and to urge Lebanese leaders, unable to implement reforms, to put aside their divisions and leave the country. land of the abyss.
“Following these explosions, Emmanuel Macron had made it a personal matter and advocated the formation of a missionary government of independent reformers to lead the country out of the crisis, having shaken the local political class,” recalled Karim Émile Bitar. But Paris faced the lies, tricks and ruses of traditional Lebanese leaders, who showered it with false promises: before the French president even boarded the return plane, they were already trying to dirty his board and thwart his initiative.”
Le Drian expects a new French approach in Beirut
A failure that no doubt led France to propose an equation marked by Realpolitik in the Presidency Act. Apart from the fact that the scenario of the June 14 election session in Parliament showed the impossibility of Sleiman Frangié’s candidacy. Its failure had become inevitable after the outcry from the leaders of the Maronite community – traditionally reserved for the post of President – who had exceptionally united behind the same banner.
For Karim Émile Bitar, the appointment of Jean-Yves Le Drian “could be a sign that France is changing course and looking for a plan B, having realized that its first attempt was doomed to failure”.
According to him, “the former French foreign minister has known the situation in Lebanon for a long time and has in the past used truthful language towards the Lebanese leaders, quite harsh language towards the political class”.
In Lebanon there is a complex system of power sharing between the main denominations
During a trip to Beirut in May 2021, Jean-Yves Le Drian, irritated by the immobility of the political class, which was slow to form a government, threatened sanctions. “I realize that the political actors have not yet fulfilled their responsibilities and have not yet started to work seriously on the recovery of the country.” […] If they don’t act today, they will have to face the consequences of that failure,” he told reporters.
While the stalemate in Beirut is dead dead – parliament speaker and Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri has not set a date for another electoral capitulation – the arrival of the “personal envoy” is imminent [d’Emmanuel Macron] for Lebanon” can get the process going again.
For his part, Michel Moawad hopes that a new French approach will do the trick.
“Jean-Yves Le Drian is an experienced politician who knows Lebanon and the complexities of the region well. His appointment therefore brings hope, in his opinion, not to say a change in the French position so that it can address our fears.” the number of votes collected by our candidate Jihad Azour proved otherwise.”
The MP for Zghorta (North), son of former President René Moawad, who was assassinated on November 22, 1989, is still counting on French help to lift Cedar country out of political paralysis. In addition to the vacant presidency, Lebanon has been led by a resigning government since the May 2022 general election, which can only speed up current affairs.
“There is a historic relationship between Lebanon and France that no one ignores anymore, and we want that country to continue to play a positive role, especially at a time when there is a lack of interest in the Lebanese cause worldwide,” he admits . Even if we count on getting out of this first, we are in favor of France trying to help Lebanon. Because unfortunately, I think that for us to succeed in unlocking the presidential election held hostage by Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsor, there needs to be international support.”
To say that Jean-Yves Le Drian’s mission promises to be complicated, if not impossible, is an understatement. The Quai d’Orsay, contacted by France 24, did not answer questions about the program of the former head of French diplomacy and the possibility of meeting with Hezbollah officials.
“France remains an important player in Lebanon. If Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Yves Le Drian really want to invest in solving the crisis, they still have many assets in their game,” concludes Karim Émile Bitar. They find the right balance between the two demands of Realpolitik and the legitimate demands of the Lebanese people for a renewal of their political class, which has held power for decades and has led the country to ruin.