Kevin PeltonESPN Senior Writer8:41 PM ET4 Minute Read
The Los Angeles Lakers will reevaluate LeBron James in three weeks after suffering an ankle injury. Gary A Vasquez – USA TODAY Sports
Can the Los Angeles Lakers still make the play-in tournament if LeBron James is out with a tendon injury in his right foot?
The Lakers announced Thursday that James will be reevaluated in about three weeks after missing the last two games with the injury. This schedule puts James’ return at best in late March, with the end of the regular season approaching.
With 19 games remaining, the Lakers are 11th in the Western Conference, one game behind the New Orleans Pelicans for last play-in spot.
James’ injury, which came during a promising comeback road win over the Dallas Mavericks, likely ends any realistic hopes of avoiding the play-in by moving up to sixth place.
However, that doesn’t mean we won’t see the Lakers in the playoffs at all. After bolstering their roster at the close of trade, can the Lakers advance to the play-in — or at least fight for it — while James heals?
Let’s consider the cases of optimism and pessimism in relation to their chances.
Why the Lakers trade deadline was clutch
Wednesday’s win over the collapsing Oklahoma City Thunder put the Lakers 6-10 this season if James is sidelined. Perhaps more notably, it was their second win in six games without James or Anthony Davis, who sat out the second game in a row with a stress injury in his right foot.
That result was a tribute to the Lakers’ improvement as of deadline. Though guard D’Angelo Russell also missed Wednesday’s game with a sprained ankle, newcomers Mo Bamba, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt all started for the Lakers, with Rui Hachimura – who was added in an earlier trade this season – 27 minutes ahead game bank played.
Even when the newcomers don’t produce outstanding performances, they push those who started earlier in the season into smaller roles. Austin Reaves and Lonnie Walker IV both came off the bench on Wednesday and scored 32 points together. Meanwhile, Patrick Beverley and Juan Toscano-Anderson, who started the season with games James missed, are no longer in the squad.
As a result, I wouldn’t necessarily read much into the Lakers’ overall tally without James. This is a much deeper, stronger team than the one that started this season 1-4 in games that both James and Davis missed.
The schedule is again in favor of LA
If beating the Thunder, who have lost their last five games to drop a game behind the Lakers overall, was any indication of the Lakers’ post-trade potential, then Tuesday’s loss to the Memphis Grizzlies was nonetheless 28 points and 19 boards from Davis was a reminder of their limited room for error.
That’s why it’s important that the Lakers have seen the schedule swing in their favor after completing a three-game road trip. Only the Cleveland Cavaliers have an easier schedule the rest of the way, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), as the Lakers will play 12 of their last 19 regular-season games at home.
The downside is the most challenging part: this remaining schedule falls in the period when James is expected to be absent. Including a rematch with the Grizzlies next Tuesday in LA, the Lakers’ next six games are all against teams with superior records. Three of them are doubly important because they face off against other teams in the West’s play-in mix, including the Pelicans’ March 14 visit.
The schedule will even out in mid-March when the Lakers face just two teams that would currently go into the postseason in seven games, five of which are at home. The Lakers need to get wins in that span to keep up in the West Play-In race. It’s possible James could be back by the end of those games, including a home game against the Chicago Bulls.
The other good news for the Lakers is that none of the five teams currently in the play-in mix have gone better than 4-6 in their last 10 games. Some of those contenders are struggling with their own injuries, including Karl-Anthony Towns, who is still sidelined for the Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans, who are without frontcourt starters Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas.
If the Lakers can go just .500 with James out of the lineup, that could be enough to put them in play-in position pending his return.
Why play-in seeding matters too
There is a tendency to discuss the play-in tournament as a binary matter – either in or out. Although an 11th-place finish would not give the Lakers a chance to make the playoffs, the road is much more difficult for the 9th- and 10th-place teams, who need to win twice to get through the play-in.
That’s where the math is less favorable for the Lakers. There’s a good chance they will catch one of the four teams ahead of them in the standings, but overtaking multiple teams this late in the season will be a challenge. Projections using BPI place either ninth or 10th as the most likely outcome for the Lakers.
If the Lakers are stuck outside of the West’s top 8 and make the playoffs, that means playing two games to make the first round while their potential opponent — almost certainly the top-seeded Denver Nuggets in this scenario, for one team , which comes into play – in ninth or tenth place can only end up as an eighth seed – is resting and preparing for the playoffs.
As a result, the effects of James’ current injury could still be felt in April even as the Lakers advance to the playoffs.