Are the Philadelphia 76ers good enough to win the NBA championship in 2024? Most metrics suggest this is the case. They are one of three teams, along with the Celtics and Thunder, that rank in the NBA's top five in both offense and defense. They have never done that in the post-trial era. Their net rating of plus 8.4 is easily the best with Joel Embiid on the team and better than any champion since the 2017 Warriors. Embiid is probably having the best individual offensive season of the 21st century. At least they plausibly meet the threshold for team president Daryl Morey's 5% rule.
“If you have even a 5 percent chance of winning the title — and there are only a very small number of teams in that group each year — you have to be fully focused on winning the title,” Morey said long ago to Zach Lowe in 2012. He's largely stuck with that idea ever since, making more all-in type trades than any other manager in the last decade. He appears to have a 5% team this year, and thanks to his trade for James Harden in October, he has the tools to meaningfully improve it. He still could, but the general tone of coverage of the 76ers is that they are approaching this trade deadline cautiously.
So far, the 76ers have turned their noses up at starry, typically Morey-esque targets like Zach LaVine. They watched Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby get traded to other teams, and while there was some reported interest in Dejounte Murray, they weren't mentioned much compared to more desperate, older teams (cough, Lakers, cough). Shams Charania said that he expects the 76ers to be “measured” at the trade deadline. There are valid basketball reasons for this. They've discovered this season that their offense works well with two heavy-duty ballplayers instead of three. Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are having career seasons, so cutting their roster for a LaVine-type makes little sense. A defensive wing would make a big difference, but such players tend to be expensive. Most viable playoff-caliber players are signed to large, long-term contracts, and Morey has reason to exercise financial caution.
The 76ers can clear cap space fairly easily this offseason. The exact amount is unclear and depends on a number of factors, but the general range in circulation is $55 million. The highest level of maximum salary would require a projected salary of $49.7 million next season. So if the Sixers plan on going star-hunting, there's a little wiggle room, but generally the price of that would be to allow the bulk of their salaries to walk their own free agents. While Morey is a master at manipulating the cap and could likely maintain some depth, he would essentially be choosing between maintaining a version of this potentially championship-caliber group or using cap space to create a three-headed monster with another star to build.
Morey has gone to great lengths to create this cap space. He forced Maxey to wait an extra year on his rookie extension to make it – a move that hasn't gone well in the past for teams that have tried it. He snuck PJ Tucker into the Harden deal as the last significant salary remaining on his books for 2024-25. Philadelphia didn't add any long-term money. They are largely unaffiliated with players with long-term contracts in the trading market. Preserving this space has tremendous theoretical value, but avoiding long-term money on the trade market with such a good team would directly violate Morey's 5% rule. If he does, it's likely because he has a target in that area in mind over the summer.
The problem here is that most of the theoretical adjustments he had in mind last offseason are disappearing from the scene due to trades and extensions. Anunoby and Siakam are likely to play again with their new teams. The same goes for Jrue Holiday, who joined the best team in the NBA after moving to Boston. Kawhi Leonard has already signed a new contract with the Clippers. Paul George hasn't signed a new contract yet, but after Leonard's contract extension he said he was “very, very optimistic that something will be done for me too.” Maybe a playoff failure could change his mind, and the Sixers know firsthand how capable Harden is of that, but right now the Clippers don't exactly seem ripe for a breakup. That covers most of the top free agents of 2024, although there has been one superstar whose potential free agent prospects have gone largely undiscovered, and he happens to be Morey's white whale.
LeBron James has a player option for next season. He has given no indication that he plans to explore the market, and there are few reports suggesting he might do so other than Dave McMenamin's recent suggestion that the Lakers “did not preemptively communicate with James' representatives about the deal.” “We spoke about the star’s future plans.” It's also fair to question whether a team consisting of a 29-year-old and a 23-year-old wants to pay a lot of money to someone who's about to turn 40, although his performance in the playoffs will likely determine whether something like that happens or not. Tracking makes sense.
On all fronts we are several dozen steps away from legitimacy. This is tinfoil hat territory here, but the deeper you delve into the possibility, the more it makes sense. While we can't say anything for sure, it's reasonable to assume that by the end of his career, LeBron will be aiming for the following three things:
- A chance to meaningfully compete for championships.
- The chance to play with his oldest son, Bronny. He has already spoken about this wish several times in the file.
- The opportunity to earn top or near-top salaries for as long as possible. James took a discount on his Miami Heat contract, but was reported to have told suitors during his time as a free agent in 2014 that he would not accept anything less than his maximum salary, and he has stuck to that ever since.
So let's take a look at how the Sixers, Lakers and the field perform according to these criteria. As we previously reported, the Sixers are firmly in the championship mix with Maxey and Embiid, and their presence would allow James to reduce his regular-season usage. It's something he's been trying to do for years and was apparently the main reason he wanted to play with Russell Westbrook (and later Kyrie Irving). The Lakers reached the Western Conference Finals last season, but their chances of doing so this season appear slim. They are 23-23 despite having missed just seven games combined against James and Anthony Davis. They could make a big trade at the deadline to improve their chances, but the West has four juggernauts at the top and as it stands, the Lakers are four games out of the top six seeds. The most likely outcome here is another play-in spot. Should the Lakers sneak into the playoffs from there, they would likely be underdogs against every opponent they face from this point forward.
One of the potential benefits of such a disappointing season might be a high first-round pick…except the Lakers might not even have one. They still owe the New Orleans Pelicans a pick from the Anthony Davis trade. New Orleans has the option to accept his 2024 pick or defer the commitment to 2025. If the Pelicans make their pick, the Lakers would be at a distinct disadvantage in pursuing Bronny. Klutch Sports could try to deter other teams, but they can only do so much on that front. If the younger James declares for the draft and another team wants him, they have every right to draft him.
The 76ers wouldn't be the only team thinking about using juniors to lure seniors, and the area ahead of them on the current draft board is something of a minefield. Currently, the 76ers are projected to finish at No. 26. Both of James' former teams are currently ahead of them, with the Heat at No. 16 and the Cavaliers at No. 23. Several teams in this range stand out as possible James options, including the Knicks at No. 18 simply because of their desperation for a star, and the Thunder at No. 24 because their mountain of draft picks gives them security to home run swings make. There's no guarantee that Morey James could land at No. 26 or close. He may have to make a trade for this.
Of course, the 76ers have one advantage over these other teams: money. They are one of seven teams currently projected to have significant cap space this offseason. The other six? Detroit, Charlotte, Orlando, Utah, Toronto and San Antonio. Do any of these teams sound like possible James destinations? In some ways, maybe the Spurs, given their surplus of draft capital, the presence of Victor Wembanyama, and James' long-standing respect for Gregg Popovich, but they're probably still years away from contending and would need to clear a lot more cap space for James anyway to pay .
No, if there's a team outside of Los Angeles that can meet the competition, Bronny and salary criteria, it's the 76ers, and Morey is an experienced James chaser. During James' free agency in 2014, he met with Rich Paul to make a pitch, but as we now know, his heart was set on Cleveland at the time. He tried again in 2018 and had not only Harden but also James' close friend Chris Paul as his recruiter. But the Rockets would have had to devise a complicated sign-and-trade system, and James ultimately decided he wanted to live in Los Angeles. Is that still a requirement? There's nothing the 76ers can do about it. He will remain a Laker indefinitely, perhaps until he retires. The Lakers can make his choice easier in a number of ways. A win would be a good start. Perhaps the James family could try to game the system to get Bronny to the Lakers by keeping him out of the draft until a year when the Lakers have a pick with which to take him.
But the Cavaliers and Heat certainly thought James would retire with them. He did not do it. James has proven time and time again that he is willing to move to whatever situation suits his current needs. If it's no longer the Lakers, the 76ers are the obvious alternative.
He still has a long time to figure it all out. How the Lakers and 76ers finish their seasons will certainly play a role here. But Morey works under much tougher time pressures. He has less than two weeks until the trade deadline, and if he sticks to the parameters of his 5% rule, he may have to sacrifice some of the cap space he has so carefully created before he has a chance to use it James.
Should he do that? Both sides are reasonable. Seasons like the one Embiid is having right now are rare. There is no guarantee that he will be playing at this level again next season as there is little precedent for anyone ever having even reached this level. One could argue that there will never be a title more attainable for Philadelphia than this one. Yes, the field is big this season, but there is no overwhelming favorite dominating the field. That could change in the near future. What happens if you wait a year and the Thunder suddenly make their all-in trade? What happens if a disappointing playoff run shakes Embiid's faith in the organization?
Opportunities for an instant title are rare and should be cherished, but historically perhaps no player has ever done more to boost a team's chances than James. Between 2011 and 2020, teams that employed LeBron reached the Finals 90% of the time. Morey has never done it, and he's not inclined to do so this season. His self-proclaimed roster building philosophy is to “acquire more members of the USA Basketball team.” James could be playing for his third gold medal this summer, and Embiid will join him on that team.
Perhaps there is a middle ground at the trade deadline where Philadelphia targets low-salary players — either on rookie contracts, cheap veteran contracts or at low-cap positions as free agents next summer — who will improve the current team and could potentially be a part of the next one. Former James running mate Alex Caruso and his $9.5 million salary would be perfect in that regard if Philadelphia were willing to give up the numerous first-round picks that would reportedly be needed to get rid of him. If the 76ers are willing to give up assets for players they may not retain beyond the season, they could pay higher salaries as salaries expire or trade for players they are confident they can acquire if needed over the summer could give to someone else.
But it's more likely that the 76ers will ultimately have to make a decision between two of Morey's core principles as a leader: stick to the “gather as many Team USA players as possible” rule and preserve the space to attack James , or? someone like him? Or do they stick to the 5% rule and pay whatever is necessary to maximize this team's championship chances, future be damned? It's probably the most important decision a team will make in the next two weeks. Philadelphia will make a big push in the near future, and whether that happens this year or beyond will impact the next championship races.