TORONTO – A year ago, it really felt like a coin toss. And it took seven games to prove the prediction was correct. It was a close series by any definition.
But the Lightning–Maple Leafs playoff sequel feels different.
Toronto, after finishing 13 points ahead of Tampa Bay in the 2022-23 standings, is rightfully favored this time for whatever counts in the crazy world known as the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Does the NHL community buy it?
I reached out to competing front office executives and head coaches across the NHL this weekend and asked them to break down the Tampa Bay-Toronto series and pick a winner.
Here’s what they say.
(Note: Some answers have been edited slightly for clarity.)
Head Coach #1
I think Toronto wins the series. They learned to play hockey much more successfully, more completely. They looked different last year when they lost to Tampa in the playoffs and I thought they nailed it. Also, the loss of (Tanner) Jeannot Tampa really hurts. I think it goes seven and Toronto wins. Playing her this year was a lot harder than (in) previous years and I don’t think Sheldon (Keefe) gets enough credit.
Head Coach #2
Will be a great series. Tampa has great experience, talent, tough competitors and great goaltenders. Toronto has learned some hard lessons with a young core. But after last year’s playoffs, they seemed to take a step towards playoff hockey and what it takes to win. They have elite talent that competes and they’ve added some good players to complement the core types.
Will be a great series. Could result in goalkeeper.
(He chose Toronto.)
Head Coach #3
Leaves in 6. Tampa looks tired. They’re a slower team this year and McDonough’s loss was bigger than they thought as their back end isn’t nearly as good. Leaves are much deeper and have more skill and depth. I would say hands in 5 but 88 steals 1 more.
Head Coach #4
(I choose) Toronto. Because I think a big step in the playoffs is (the) battle scar and the urgency to win. I think the key moment for Tampa was when they lost to Columbus and were expecting to win. After that they came back with the urgency.
Same for Colorado. When they lost to Vegas, they were stunned. That made her urgent. It’s what they needed.
I think that’s the special ingredient that championship teams at the NHL level need.
Head Coach #5
I think Toronto wins in seven games because they have more speed in the bottom six forwards and also as a team in general. But wouldn’t be shocked if Tampa won either.
Front Office Manager #1
I’m going with Toronto. This year they break through. I like their additions up front in (Ryan) O’Reilly, (Noel) Acciari, (Sam) Lafferty and (Matthew) Knies. Your backend is deeper than ever. And (Ilya) Samsonov had an underestimated year with no connection to past playoff misses. Tampa has a lot of miles on that core that can be good (playoff success/experience) and bad (when does fatigue set in?). The Lightning went down the stretch 9-13-1, and I’m pretty sure you can’t just flip the switch to go once the playoffs start. I say Toronto in six.
Front Office Manager #2
Go with Toronto. I think it’s her time. They have the depth up front this year and a stronger bottom six. Appear healthy throughout the lineup. The goalkeepers still worry me.
Tampa seems like a tired team to beat early on. They’ve played so much hockey (in) in the last few years in a shortened time frame. I just don’t know how they can withstand another playoff grind.
Front Office Manager #3
I think this series has the potential to have as much drama as any first round matchup with so much macro narrative for both teams. Will Tampa’s incredible mileage over the past few years finally catch up with them, or can they muster their competitive spirit and know-how for another run? Two very well coordinated teams. I think if Samsonov is able to get the goalie fight reasonably close to a draw then Toronto will do it.
(Votes Toronto.)
Front Office Manager #4
As you know, choosing this series is difficult. For me everything depends on goalkeeping. Toronto’s unproven goalies are tough to rely on, and you’re up against the best stopper in the game. I’ll pick Tampa, but it’s very close. O’Reilly and Toronto’s improved depth gives them a legitimate opportunity. Tampa in seven.
Front Office Manager #5
I’m going to Tampa. I think Vassy makes the difference.
He just wins this time of year.
Front Office Manager #6
Higher seed list thanks to well-deserved home advantage.
(Well, I choose Toronto.)
Front Office Manager #7
Toronto…I like their speed and believe their core four (Nos. 34, 16, 88 and 44) will finally improve their playoff games due to a more balanced playoff lineup.
Front Office Manager #8
I believe Toronto will win this series.
This time they got it. I think they’ve learned from all those hard lessons over the past few years. I think their top guys will be good. Getting O’Reilly on board is huge. His intangibles in the playoffs will play a major role as Tampa starts to do its thing. Acciari’s courage will also be valuable as the series progresses.
Toronto’s goalies don’t need to outperform (Andrei) Vasilevskiy but need to try and stay level with him. Tampa may not be entirely healthy.
Front Office Manager #9
Toronto is the better team for me. Tampa still has the same stars at the top of their roster, but the salary cap has taken much of their depth away from them. They’re still a good team, but to me they’re not the juggernaut they used to be.
(Votes Toronto.)
Front Office Manager #10
Even though it feels like it’s Toronto’s turn, I’ll take the best goalie in a long streak.
(Selects Tampa Bay.)
Front Office Manager #11
give me tampa Why? The coach and the goalkeeper.
Front Office Manager #12
Toronto in 6. Although keeper is the wild card who could swing it the other way.
Front Office Manager #13
This is going to be another great series. Toronto almost killed the Dragon last year but Tampa held them back in Game 7. I expect this to be very competitive again.
Toronto’s team is fitter than ever for the playoffs. They’ve made some key acquisitions to bolster their depth and make their bottom 6 much more competitive. O’Reilly will also help them take on Tampa’s top lines in a somber series.
Tampa is a little battered going into the series, and despite some stellar seasons from their top players, they don’t feel quite as invincible as they once did. Vasilevskiy has been very good and can steal any game or streak, but again it doesn’t feel like he or the team has the same pride as in previous years.
I give Toronto the nod this series to make it through the first round for the first time in the Marner/Matthews era. Toronto in the 6th
in summary
If you count at home, that’s 14-4 for the Leafs: 5-0 in head coach answers and 9-4 in executives. So don’t close.
It’s worth noting that I did the exact same drill a year ago before the Battle of Alberta second-round playoff series, and it was a unanimous victory as seven executives and four head coaches all picked the Flames (who later lost in five ). games).
That said, despite the overwhelming sentiment here that the Leafs are winning their first playoff series in 19 years, of course it shouldn’t come as a shock to absolutely anyone to see the veteran, accomplished Lightning do the job.
I’m looking for O’Reilly, who is a big influence on this series for the Leafs. The 2019 playoffs MVP will make a difference. I also think Vasilevskiy will steal a game, maybe two. But in the end, I’m here with the NHL community. I think the Leafs’ roster depth is winning and Toronto is finally winning its first playoff series of the salary cap era.
(Top photo by Andrei Vasilevskiy, Erik Cernak and Auston Matthews: Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)