He looked up at the sky and then down at his glove and tugged at the blue leather cords. He seemed to be looking for something: an answer, an explanation, some optimism.
Carlos Hernández, the 25-year-old Venezuelan right-hander who had shown promise last season, had just allowed six runs in an innings in the Royals’ 6-1 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. The loss capped another shameful streak in 2022. The Royals have won just two out of nine this season.
It’s May 10th and the Royals are 9-17. Without the struggling Detroit Tigers, the Royals would have the worst record in the American League.
The numbers explain the lazy start. At the plate, the club ranks 28th in OPS (.601), 28th in walks (69), 29th in home runs (13) and 22nd in player hit rate ( 37.1 percent). The pitching seems to be taking these rankings personally – and elevating them. The Royals are ranked 27th in ERA (4.62), 27th in WHIP (1.39), and 29th in strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.90).
This would be easy to dismiss if it were an isolated case. But it is not. Not in the slightest.
As of 2018, the year the Royals began rebuilding, they have ranked 28th in OPS (.700) and 27th in ERA (4.85). Perhaps this explains why the Royals rank 25th in attendance (16,435 fans per game at Kauffman Stadium). Perhaps that’s what fuels a sentiment that BD, a commentator at The Athletic, summed up nicely: “The only thing worse than creating frustration and anger in your fan base is creating what comes after : apathy. This year, too, the Royals are dangerously close to doing just that.”
As a reminder, the Royals lost ten straight games in the first two weeks of the 2019 season. They lost six straight games in the second week of the 2020 season. And they lost 11 games in a row last May. Even though the Royals have only played 16 percent of their season in 2022, the fear isn’t limited to the fan base. Several players have expressed frustration with the state of affairs, prompting the following questions: What does it take to keep interest alive? What will make people optimistic that the club is destined for a run in the near future?
The questions generally conjure up a scene from July 2nd last year. Dayton Moore, the Royals’ president of baseball operations, sat in the dugout before a game. A reporter asked how surprised he was by the royals’ lackluster performance.
“You’ve heard me say this before, but you have to do a lot of things right to win a Major League Baseball game,” he said. “If you fail in several areas, it’s bloody impossible to win. But you can’t excuse injuries. At the end of the day, as a manager, you have to look in the mirror and evaluate your processes. But at the end of the day I believe in our players, in (coach) Mike Matheny and the coaching staff.”
What is striking is how seamlessly this quote fits into this story a year later – a year in which the club is said to be closer to the competition.
Projections differ. FanGraphs’ ZiPS sees the Royals heading for 94 losses.
Pitching glitches are part of the reason. Kris Bubic, whom the club announced as a starter over Brady Singer after Singer completed three stunning spring training outings, has pitched 12 1/3 innings in five starts. The Royals selected Jackson Kowar after a game in the major leagues, and he currently has a 10.18 ERA in five starts at Triple-A Omaha. Hernández, who has seen his dip in speed and the shape of his fastball descent, has a 7.15 ERA in five starts.
It’s difficult to look at these situations and not look back at the past year. On the pitching side, Jakob Junis proved to be one of the Royals’ best pitchers in six games. He had a 3.47 ERA. Then the royals demoted him to a bullpen. He allowed five runs on his first assignment. Neither pitching coach Cal Eldred nor bullpen coach Larry Carter seemed to help Junis hit his form.
This is relevant given that Junis is now pitching for the San Francisco Giants. He has a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings (including one start). If you dig deeper, you’ll notice some interesting elements in its pitch blend. In 2019, Junis threw 33.7 percent four-stitch machines, 29.7 percent sliders, and 17.3 percent sinkers. This season he’s throwing 54.9 percent sliders, 22.1 percent sinkers, and 6.9 percent fourseamers. His slider is his best pitch. His four-seam has been among his worst in a long time. Reversing usage has worked wonders. So has a change. The Royals wanted Junis to turn the field instead of throwing a splitter. Given his slot, that wasn’t an easy task.
Interestingly, Junis isn’t the only pitcher who has moved on and succeeded. Brad Boxberger averaged 90 mph with his four-seam fastball in 2019, and the pitch dropped an average of 20.1 inches. In 2021, after signing with the Milwaukee Brewers, Boxberger averaged 93.5 miles per hour on his fastball and the pitch dropped an average of 14.1 inches, adding to the climb effect and making it that much harder made to meet him. In 2019, Wily Peralta didn’t throw a splinter at the Royals. Now with the Tigers, it’s where he resonates more than any other. Jorge López is throwing nearly four miles an hour faster with the Baltimore Orioles this season than he did with the Royals in 2019. Tampa Bay Rays substitute Jason Adam is one of baseball’s best this season. He throws a change the most (he threw just 7.9 percent with the Royals in 2018) and uses a slider, which he didn’t throw with the Royals.
Remarkably, the Royals’ current big leagues are not ignorant of the advances others have been making elsewhere.
It’s similar on the flip side. In 2021, Jorge Soler had big problems. Matheny seemed to have no answer. “It’s crazy what he can do,” Matheny said last June. “We just keep looking for keys to open it.” Hitting coach Terry Bradshaw struggled to find them. It wasn’t until the emergence of special assignments coach Mike Tosar that Soler transformed into the kind of hitter who went on to contribute to the Atlanta Braves’ World Series run.
Granted, the Royals added former assistant batting coordinator Keoni DeRenne to their big-league team this offseason to help change batsmen’s work habits before games. Nevertheless, Whit Merrifield, for example, occupies the last place among all qualified hitters in the wRC+. Salvador Perez only hits .204. Carlos Santana, who the club has not traded as of last year’s reporting date, has an OPS of 0.566. Adalberto Mondesi had struck 20 times in 50 punches before tearing his cruciate ligament. Outfielder Edward Olivares – whom a scout mentioned last year and asked “why doesn’t he ever play?” – was the club’s top hitter (a 172 wRC+ in 38 plate appearances) before suffering a right quadriceps strain this weekend.
As Moore said last year, the club cannot make excuses for injuries. The fact is, the royals have held onto Merrifield, Santana and Mondesi for the past few years rather than trading them. They’ve trusted Eldred and Carter to guide the young pitchers into the big leagues since 2017, and the same goes for Bradshaw on the list. They have continued to operate with one foot in the present water and one in the future. Both seem cloudier than ever. So what can the royals do?
Looking in the mirror, evaluating processes and believing in the squad and coaching staff was last year’s response. And that feels exactly like the problem.
(Photo by Zack Greinke: Keith Gillett / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images),