As explained in my Mock Draft 1.0, I always try to maximize each pick according to win share value growth for the upcoming season. Of course, my approach simultaneously takes into account the free agency/trade acquisitions that have already taken place, as well as those that may be called. And no, I don’t allow myself to trade pickaxes.
With all of that in mind – and given the hustle and bustle of activity that’s already reshuffled rosters in the NFL – something pretty interesting happened in this first-round sim, something that’s never happened before in all the years I’ve been around happened modeling designs this way:
Zero quarterbacks will be selected in the following 32 picks.
Admittedly, this is highly unlikely on April 28th. This league is just too obsessed with quarterbacks, and a number of teams are looking for a long-term fix at that position. In fact, my models—who estimate where players will actually go—estimate the odds of at least three quarterbacks being drafted in the first round to be 71.1 percent and four to be 58.6 percent.
But in the exercise below, the key position of the game is completely missing from Round 1, giving a different looking overview than what you’re used to – which is fine! Use this mock as an opportunity to weigh short-term vs. long-term strategies.