RIGA, Latvia — From the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kiev’s strongest allies against President Vladimir Putin have been the nations that know his Soviet playbook best: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, all of which were invaded and brutalized by the Soviet Union and historically suspicious of Russia.
Their warnings of Russian aggression and calls for more Western action to deter Putin have long been brushed aside by many in Europe, even after Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia and the Kremlin’s 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea.
“A lesson from this war is that we should have listened to those who know Putin,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in her State of the European Union address last month. “They’ve been telling us for years that Putin wouldn’t quit.”
Since February, the Baltics and Poland have repeatedly called for the deployment of more and rapid military assistance, including more powerful offensive weapons, only to be rebuffed by the United States and Western European allies, who have tried to make it clear they are not in a direct conflict with Russia.
That is slowly changing after Putin has proved his suspicious neighbors right – repeatedly.
The Russian President’s shocking escalation on Monday, which saw dozens of rockets fired at Ukrainian civilian targets, including power plants, drew strong condemnation around the world. Western leaders are beginning to realize that they may need to take more decisive steps to ensure Ukraine’s victory.
Ahead of key NATO meetings in Brussels on Wednesday and Thursday, leaders of the Baltic states have urged the West to step up supplies of arms to Kyiv, particularly air defense systems. The NATO Contact Group on Ukraine meets in Brussels on Wednesday and NATO Defense Ministers meet on Thursday.
But in a sign that its easternmost allies are already making progress, leaders of the Group of Seven issued a strong statement on Tuesday backing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s call for a “just peace” that leaves no room for surrender in front of Putin’s demands. The G-7 insisted on restoring Ukraine’s sovereignty, preserving Ukraine’s future security and Russian-funded reconstruction.
Still, Baltic leaders insist that more needs to be done.
On Tuesday, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and von der Leyen, a former German defense minister, stood about 100 meters from Estonia’s border with Russia in the town of Narva, sending a strong signal to the Kremlin that its escalation had not undermined Western support for Ukraine.
Kallas called for more military aid to Ukraine as soon as possible, especially modern missile defense systems and air defense.
“Ukraine’s success on the battlefield shows that we were on the right track and need to use this momentum,” Kallas wrote in an email to the Washington Post after the performance with von der Leyen. “This must be translated into ever stronger and stronger support for Ukrainian soldiers, business and its people. Especially now that Russia has been escalating in the most serious way since February 24.”
“Estonia knows firsthand the face of the Russian occupation,” Kallas added. “We know that peace under occupation does not mean the end of atrocities, but more of them.”
Baltic leaders have long argued that Western sanctions imposed in 2014 after Putin illegally annexed Crimea showed the West’s lack of resolve to confront the Russian president over his land-grabbing. European leaders seemed to think the Baltics were so traumatized by Soviet occupation that they couldn’t be objective.
“You know, we jokingly call this ‘Westsplaining’,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said. The message from the West, he said, is that “after 50 years of occupation, it is understandable that you have trust issues with a country that has occupied you”.
“For us in the Baltics, it all boils down to this notion of appeasement: that we can basically appease Russia,” Landsbergis continued. “It was always very clear to us, black and white. If a country is out to cross another country’s border, it is an aggressor and will do so again if not stopped. And they were not stopped.”
“This idea is pretty ubiquitous, this idea of a peaceful settlement with an attacker,” he added. “I’m really confident that it’s going down now.”
Amid Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons, his claimed annexation of four more regions of Ukraine and a military escalation, leaders of Poland and the Baltic states are once again urging Western leaders not to bat an eyelid.
“This is also a war of nerves,” said Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics. “The Russians are trying to figure out if they can take over Ukraine and if we will give in to nuclear blackmail or if we will try to negotiate a deal, land for peace.”
Rinkevics said Ukraine clearly needs air defense systems to protect the country from Russian missile attacks on civilian targets and critical infrastructure such as power plants.
“That’s one thing that I think they’ve been requesting for weeks and months as well — more of all types of weapons,” he said. “Actually, my bottom line is that we should give Ukraine whatever it asks for.”
Landsbergis said Ukraine urgently needs tanks and aircraft, as well as air defense systems.
“We have to stop debating whether we should supply Ukraine with more weapons and provide them with everything they could use and they can use a lot,” he said.
Estonia and Latvia have provided more military aid per capita to Ukraine than any other country. The Baltic countries and Poland were also the staunchest supporters of economic sanctions against Russia, although as neighbors their own economies were hardest hit by the measures, which disrupted trade with a large market right next door.
Kristi Raik, director of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute of the International Center for Defense and Security, said Western policy towards Russia since 2007 has ignored clear signs of Russia’s revanchist imperialism and autocratic path.
“The failure of the West was that they didn’t take it seriously or believed that Russia meant it,” Raik said. “And then, as Russia became more aggressive and tried to impose its agenda, the Western response was to put no limits on Russian aggression and to make it clear that there will be costs and consequences if Russia violates the basic principles of international security. ”
The soft reaction of the West, especially after Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, only encouraged Moscow, Raik said: “If the reaction had been stronger, it might have been possible to deal with the situation we are in now to avoid a full-scale war in Europe.”
She said Western restrictions on the types of weapons sent to Ukraine had not prevented a Russian escalation. “Russia was determined to win and destroy Ukraine’s independent statehood, and Russia is using all means to achieve this goal,” she said. “The West’s restrictions on aid to Ukraine aren’t really helping the situation.”
Rinkevics said the West must greatly increase military production in the coming years.
“It is absolutely clear that the next five to ten years will be very difficult. We need gear to replenish our supplies. We need more equipment for NATO members. We need equipment for Ukraine. I think we have to recognize that this will be a long war.”
Unless the West stands firm, the easternmost allies argue, Putin would defeat Ukraine before possibly attacking northern Kazakhstan, expanding his influence into the Caucasus or attempting to advance further west into Moldova or beyond in the coming years.
“If he sees that there is only talk and no action at this point, then of course he will try to challenge NATO itself,” said Rinkevics.
For Landsbergis, only a Ukrainian victory will ensure the security of his own country and that of others. “They have to win for all of our sakes,” he said.
Kallas said only a show of force could stop Russia’s aggression and end the war. “The road to peace,” she said, “is to drive Russia out of Ukraine.”
Natalia Abbakumova in Riga, Latvia and Emily Rauhala in Brussels contributed to this report.