Lebanon has been preparing for war for weeks. People spoke in hushed tones about their backup plans. The government said it was assembling emergency supplies for the population’s basic needs.
Everything hinged on Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s thoughts on the Hamas-Israel war, which he kept close in mind before breaking his nearly month-long silence on Oct. 7 on Friday.
In a fiery speech from an undisclosed location, the reclusive leader of the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group praised Hamas and hailed the war as a “turning point” in the Arab-Israeli conflict. He extolled the virtues of the weeks-long crossfire with Israel on Lebanon’s southern border, which he called an “unprecedented battle.”
He also said that Hezbollah was “prepared for all scenarios” and that any escalation by the Israeli army on the border would be a “historic folly” that would trigger a full response.
But despite all the harsh words, Nasrallah did not beat the drums of war. He said Hezbollah’s “primary goal” was to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and said it was up to the US – which he blamed directly for the bloodshed in the Palestinian enclave – to enforce a cessation of hostilities.
This shows us that Nasrallah’s immediate plans do not include a major conflict.
For many on the Arab street, this may come as a disappointment. As pro-Palestinian demonstrations swept across large parts of the region in recent weeks, many chanted calls for Nasrallah to go to war.
But it will be a relief for Israel’s Western allies, who fear a wider regional conflict and have repeatedly warned Nasrallah against getting involved in the fight. Two US aircraft carriers – including the nuclear-powered USS Gerald Ford – were apparently sent to the Mediterranean with the aim of deterring Hezbollah.
This relief will be shared by many in Lebanon. The tiny eastern Mediterranean country has barely recovered from the devastating economic crisis of 2019, and much of its population – while horrified by the rising death toll and widespread destruction caused by Israel’s offensive in Gaza – is reeling from decades of war and crisis exhausted.
Nasrallah may have been held back by this popular sentiment, or perhaps after weeks of deliberation he concluded that his powerful paramilitaries had too much to lose in a war with Israel.