Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began over a year ago, officials in Kiev have been asking their Western allies to equip the country’s air force with advanced fighter jets like the F-16. But the United States, which makes the fighter jet, has long hesitated to supply it or allow other countries that have F-16s to export them back to Ukraine.
American officials feared the jets could be used to attack targets inside Russia, potentially escalating the conflict, and said supplying other weapons to Ukraine was a higher priority. But President Biden changed course on Friday, telling his allies that he would allow Ukrainian pilots to train on the F-16 and that the United States would work with other countries to supply Kiev with the jets.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed what he called a “historic decision by the United States” and said it would “significantly strengthen our air force”.
Here’s what we know about the impact the move could have on the Ukrainian Air Force.
How strong is the Ukrainian Air Force?
Ukraine has inherited a sizeable but obsolete fleet of Soviet fighter planes and helicopters, a legacy of its history as part of the former Soviet Union. The Ukrainian Air Force’s fleet includes fighter jets such as the MiG-29, bombers, and transport and training aircraft, Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for the armed forces, said in an interview on Saturday.
Western military analysts estimate that Ukraine’s combined fleet of air and ground forces has been decimated by more than a third since the Russian invasion began. Ukraine has lost at least 60 of its 145 fixed-wing aircraft and 32 of its 139 helicopters, according to US military information that was among classified materials leaked on social media platform Discord in recent months. The document was undated.
The Ukrainian Air Force rarely releases figures on its fleet or other details, including incidents of aircraft shot down or otherwise destroyed. However, officials have acknowledged some casualties as the war progressed, as well as difficulties in repairing and replacing damaged aircraft.
“The latest aircraft is from 1991,” said Colonel Ihnat. “And all of this should be maintained, repaired and spare parts procured.”
Obtaining spare parts has become a problem as Russia is the sole manufacturer of many of these parts. Even before the full-scale invasion, trade in such goods had largely ground to a halt after 2014, when Russian-backed forces took control of parts of eastern Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula.
According to a November report by the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London, the Ukrainian Air Force overall is “technologically superior and severely outnumbered” to the Russian Air Force.
A fighter jet, whose affiliation is unclear, near the frontline town of Soledar in eastern Ukraine last year. Photo credit: Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times
How do Ukrainians use their planes?
As Russian forces blocked Ukraine’s air defense systems in the early days of the war, Ukrainian Mikoyan MiG-29 and Sukhoi Su-27 fighters provided air defenses over most of the country and engaged in air-to-air clashes to thwart Russian bombing raids thwart. according to the institute’s report.
Ukrainian warplanes inflicted some casualties on Russian planes, but also claimed “heavy casualties,” the report said. The Ukrainians suffered casualties in a number of friendly fire incidents in the days that followed as they struggled to establish new air defense systems.
Still, thanks to Ukraine’s strong air defenses, Russia has not managed to gain air supremacy throughout Ukraine, despite having a superior fleet. These defenses have become increasingly robust as Western nations have contributed some of their most advanced weaponry.
The Ukrainian Air Force continues to conduct combat missions, and Ukrainian planes and helicopters can often be seen flying near the Eastern Front. In recent weeks, Poland and Slovakia have delivered replacement MiG-29s to Ukraine, the first deliveries the country has received to replenish its depleted fleet. Some are useless and are being used as spares, Colonel Ihnat said.
Still, Ukrainian jets and helicopters are vulnerable to Russian air defense systems and limit their actions to avoid drifting into Russian-controlled areas. Ukrainian warplanes and attack helicopters have developed a tactic of flying low, firing unguided missiles from Ukrainian territory, and then immediately turning to avoid anti-aircraft fire. Russian aircraft use similar tactics, but have the advantage of superior firepower, allowing them to launch missiles and glide bombs from longer ranges.
“Russian pilots were cautious throughout the war,” the RUSI Institute report says, “so even a small number of Western fighters could have a large deterrent effect.”
US Air Force F-16 fighter jets on exercises in the Philippines this month. Credit: Ezra Acayan/Getty Images
Why do Ukrainians want the F-16?
The Ukrainians don’t just want to use the jets as a deterrent.
A group of Ukrainian lawmakers speaking at the German Marshall Fund in Washington last month said they wanted the F-16 because its radar could locate targets on the ground hundreds of miles away, allowing pilots to be safe when firing weapons staying over Ukrainian territory into Russian occupied territories.
Colonel Ihnat said that the aircraft will not only be used for air defense – that is, to shoot down incoming Russian missiles and drones – but could also serve as cover for Ukrainian troops who want to advance in a counter-offensive. He pointed out that it could also be used to repel Russian planes that have started firing guided bombs at least 30 miles from the Ukrainian front line; to defend the sea route that allows Ukrainian grain to leave the country; and to gain air supremacy over the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine.
None of these goals can be achieved with Ukraine’s current fleet of Soviet aircraft, he said.
“The fleet is super old,” Colonel Ihnat said. “We have four to five times fewer planes than the Russians, and the range of the planes is four to five times less than the Russians.”
A US Air Force F-16 refueling during an exercise in Nevada in 2014. Credit: John Locher/Las Vegas Review-Journal, via Associated Press
How would the F-16 increase Ukraine’s capabilities?
The small, single-engine, and highly maneuverable fighter-bomber has long been a mainstay of the US Air Force, which saw it extensively in combat during the 1991 Gulf War, the Balkans, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
According to an Air Force description of the fighter, the F-16 can fly at twice the speed of sound and engage ground targets more than 500 miles away while defending itself with air-to-air missiles.
Western and Ukrainian military analysts said that the Ukrainian Air Force needs such modern Western fighters and missiles to sustainably counter the Russian planes, which have greater firepower, and hold their own against the Russian juggernaut, which has tirelessly used bombers to target large aircraft to destroy cities like Mariupol and Bakhmut in order to conquer them.
Although Mr. Biden does not expect fighter jets to play an important role on the Ukrainian side of the conflict for a while longer, the provision of such aircraft is part of the deliberations on how to continue defending Ukraine after the current phase of the war has ended.
Ukrainian officials have long said that Ukraine needs a NATO-standard equipped and trained army with modern aircraft to provide long-term protection of its border with Russia. The decision to provide Ukraine with F-16 aircraft suggests that the Biden administration and its allies are now convinced too, and that even with a negotiated end to hostilities — perhaps a Korean-style ceasefire — Ukraine itself will – A long-term ceasefire will need ability to deter an angry, sanctioned Russia.
Oleksandr Chubko reported from Odessa, Ukraine, John Ismay from Washington and David Sanger from Hiroshima, Japan.