Both prime ministerial candidates are Brexit stalwarts. There are no signs of relaxation in relations with the EU.
The news was all but lost in the excitement surrounding the Conservative leadership battle: within hours of Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak being named the two leading candidates for prime minister, Northern Ireland’s controversial bill passed the House of Commons. . Thus, it has overcome a major hurdle – and the impending trade war with the EU is a little closer. Of particular concern in Brussels: Neither of the two candidates to succeed Boris Johnson appears to be looking to relax relations with the EU. In particular, the favorite, Secretary of State Truss, is likely to remain in her tough position – after all, she was the one who started the argument.
The Northern Ireland Protocol bill, which Truss introduced in June, is being sold by the UK government as an attempt to fix customs problems in the Irish Sea. Since Brexit, Northern Ireland businesses have struggled with additional bureaucracy, as trade between the mainland and Britain’s hinterland is now subject to border controls.
This has particularly angered union politicians: they fear it will bring Northern Ireland closer to Ireland – indeed, volumes of trade with the republic have increased dramatically since Brexit. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has refused for months to participate in the government in Belfast: they will only allow a government in Northern Ireland when the protocol problem is resolved. Liz Truss also says: “The Northern Ireland Protocol must be amended to ensure the hard-won peace here.” The only problem is that the bill violates international law because it unilaterally ends the provisions of the Brexit Treaty. The EU has threatened retaliatory measures, including the imposition of tariffs on UK imports.
But Truss has no intention of backing down. The “heroine of Brexit”, as she is dubbed by the conservative media, likes to present herself as a tough politician who does not shy away from controversy. Early in the leadership struggle, she reiterated that it was “the EU’s intransigence” that forced her to revise the Northern Ireland Protocol. In addition, the majority of the conservative base, which decides on the head of government, is made up of Brexit supporters. If she showed more goodwill towards the EU, Truss could spoil her election chances.
Is Sunak a reliever?
His rival for the lead, Rishi Sunak, is also a “Brexiteer”. However, a paradoxical development has been seen in recent weeks: Liz Truss, who voted to stay in the EU in 2016, is now considered the Brexit champion; Sunak, on the other hand, who supported Brexit six years ago, has had to endure accusations that he is not a strong enough opponent of the EU. Some unionist politicians call him a “appeaser” who will give in to the EU.
Indeed, British media reports that Sunak warned his former boss Johnson in the autumn not to escalate Northern Ireland’s dispute with the EU. He was also not in as much of a hurry as other cabinet members to reform the protocol. Concerns about economic consequences may explain this reluctance. Unlike Truss, who sees leaving the EU only as an opportunity, Sunak admitted that Brexit had caused economic damage. In March, he said the extra bureaucracy companies have to deal with has reduced exports.
But precisely because Sunak is more pragmatic than Truss, it is important for him not to let any doubts arise about his enthusiasm for Brexit. In Brussels, however, there is hope that September 5, when Sunak or Truss move to Downing Street, will mark a new beginning in bilateral relations.